Market Soapbox & Observations Week Ending 06/08/07
MON, DJIA +8 on lower volume with decent internals. All UP cept DJTA, DJUA, XAU. Bonds up, 10 yr yield -3 bps 4.93, $ down vs 1.349E & vs 121.75Y, WTI crude up $66.07, gold flat $676.9
TUE, broadbased consolidation, DJIA -81 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN, Bonds slammed 10 yr yield +5 bps 4.98, $ down vs 1.352E & vs 121.37Y, WTI crude down $65.61, gold down $675.1
WEN, triple digit followthrough, DJIA -130 on below average volume with brutal internals. All DOWN BIG. Bonds up 10yr yield -1 bps 4.97, $ down vs 121.055y & up vs 1.3506E, WTI crude up $65.96, gold down $674.6
THU, deterioration, DJIA -199 on above average volume with brutal internals. VIX volatility rocked, All DOWN BIG. Bonds slammed 10 yr yield +15bps 5.12, $ down vs 120.945y & up vs 1.3428E, gold down 1.3% $665.2, WTI crude up 1.5% $66.93
FRI, triple digit bounce, DJIA +158 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept XOI. Bonds flat 10 yr yield +0bps 5.12, $ up vs 121.745y & vs 1.337E, gold down 2.2% $650.30, WTI crude down 3.2% $64.76
This week, DJIA -244, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2799. CRB commodities down from 314.12 to 307.51
XAU down to 135.23 from 142.29 & gold down to $650.30 from $676.9. XOI down to 1356.57 from 1388.08 & WTI crude down to $64.76 from $65.08.
Volatility VIX up 12.85 to 14.74. Dollar index up 82.66 from 82.25. $ down vs Yen 122.035 to 121.745 & up vs Euro 1.3446 to 1.337.
This week Yield Curve Reverted as bonds got hammered 30 year bond falling from 109.04 to 105.06 30 yr +16bps; 10 yr +16bps, 6mo -5bps. 30 yr @ 5.22%; 10 yr @ 5.12; 5 yr @ 5.05; 2yr @ 5.00; 6 mo @ 4.92.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - 06/07/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -06/07/07; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07
Resistance: DJIA 13460; SP500 1520; NAZ 2580; NDX 1910
Support: DJIA 13120; SP500 1487; NAZ 2535; NDX 1870
DJIA up 36 for 51; 48 record closes since Oct.; 26 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 43 for 62.
Over the last 3 weeks, some magnetic numbers... SOXX 490-500, RUT 835, NDX 1905, MID 900 and SP500 1505.
05/18/07: "The PBOC raise is negative for commodities currencies and in turn for global risk appetite... the proxy Yen carry trade "haircut" for leveraged players could precipitate an unwind of positions."
And how, Bonds tanked, Shanghai lost 16%, US & Euro markets lost 3-4%. The Fed, BOJ & PBOC are running this game.
Last week: "if 10 year bond yield breaks 5 and heads for 5.10... somethings gonna give". Yesterday: Largest single day drop in 3 years. with the 10 yr hitting 5.12 and overnight hitting 5.25, then bouncing back to 5.12.
Yesterday: Pimco's Bill Gross said he is now a bear market manager after 25 years of being a bond bull.
Yesterday: "SP500 sits on 50 DMA after plunging to close at 1490." 100 DMA 1460 awaits below or another attempt at 1533 by next Friday.
Despite bad news on the PPI & CPI, we lean towards another run up as yesterday the Fed injected another $14B through temporary open market operations.
Gotta keep this dead man walkin up and on his crutches ya know... Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
TUE, broadbased consolidation, DJIA -81 on average volume with ugly internals. All DOWN, Bonds slammed 10 yr yield +5 bps 4.98, $ down vs 1.352E & vs 121.37Y, WTI crude down $65.61, gold down $675.1
WEN, triple digit followthrough, DJIA -130 on below average volume with brutal internals. All DOWN BIG. Bonds up 10yr yield -1 bps 4.97, $ down vs 121.055y & up vs 1.3506E, WTI crude up $65.96, gold down $674.6
THU, deterioration, DJIA -199 on above average volume with brutal internals. VIX volatility rocked, All DOWN BIG. Bonds slammed 10 yr yield +15bps 5.12, $ down vs 120.945y & up vs 1.3428E, gold down 1.3% $665.2, WTI crude up 1.5% $66.93
FRI, triple digit bounce, DJIA +158 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept XOI. Bonds flat 10 yr yield +0bps 5.12, $ up vs 121.745y & vs 1.337E, gold down 2.2% $650.30, WTI crude down 3.2% $64.76
This week, DJIA -244, since 09/19/05 DJIA +2799. CRB commodities down from 314.12 to 307.51
XAU down to 135.23 from 142.29 & gold down to $650.30 from $676.9. XOI down to 1356.57 from 1388.08 & WTI crude down to $64.76 from $65.08.
Volatility VIX up 12.85 to 14.74. Dollar index up 82.66 from 82.25. $ down vs Yen 122.035 to 121.745 & up vs Euro 1.3446 to 1.337.
This week Yield Curve Reverted as bonds got hammered 30 year bond falling from 109.04 to 105.06 30 yr +16bps; 10 yr +16bps, 6mo -5bps. 30 yr @ 5.22%; 10 yr @ 5.12; 5 yr @ 5.05; 2yr @ 5.00; 6 mo @ 4.92.
Recent Inversions: 2yr above 10 yr 12/27/05 - 3/29/06; 06/08/06 - 02/22/07; 05/02/07 - 06/07/07; 2yr above 30 yr 02/09/06 - 3/29/06; 11/03/06- 03/01/07. 6mo above 10yr 06/02/06 -06/07/07; 6mo above 30yr 06/13/06 - 05/25/07
Resistance: DJIA 13460; SP500 1520; NAZ 2580; NDX 1910
Support: DJIA 13120; SP500 1487; NAZ 2535; NDX 1870
DJIA up 36 for 51; 48 record closes since Oct.; 26 YTD; and on a parallel with 1989 Nikkei 225: the DJIA is now 43 for 62.
Over the last 3 weeks, some magnetic numbers... SOXX 490-500, RUT 835, NDX 1905, MID 900 and SP500 1505.
05/18/07: "The PBOC raise is negative for commodities currencies and in turn for global risk appetite... the proxy Yen carry trade "haircut" for leveraged players could precipitate an unwind of positions."
And how, Bonds tanked, Shanghai lost 16%, US & Euro markets lost 3-4%. The Fed, BOJ & PBOC are running this game.
Last week: "if 10 year bond yield breaks 5 and heads for 5.10... somethings gonna give". Yesterday: Largest single day drop in 3 years. with the 10 yr hitting 5.12 and overnight hitting 5.25, then bouncing back to 5.12.
Yesterday: Pimco's Bill Gross said he is now a bear market manager after 25 years of being a bond bull.
Yesterday: "SP500 sits on 50 DMA after plunging to close at 1490." 100 DMA 1460 awaits below or another attempt at 1533 by next Friday.
Despite bad news on the PPI & CPI, we lean towards another run up as yesterday the Fed injected another $14B through temporary open market operations.
Gotta keep this dead man walkin up and on his crutches ya know... Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and your not!
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