Economic Reports 06/07/07
Summary: BOE holds as expected at 5.5%, but Kiwi's (New Zealand) raise 25 bps to 8%...
initial claims shows more bleed into service & trade... wholesale trade showing stagflations full effect running at 10% ex-manufacturing.
Initial Claims 06/02 -1K @ 309K vs prior 310K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +2.75K to 307.25K. Continuing claims +72K to 2.54M; 4 week MA -4K to 2.5M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
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State Change State Supplied Comment
IN +1,002 manufacturing
OR +1,257 No comment
NY +1,803 service and manufacturing
MI +1,888 automobile
TX +2,149 trade and service
Wholesale Inventories Apr +0.3% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Puffed up sales led by petroleum price increases +6.3%, prior revised up from +0.3%.
Sales: The Good? Durable goods +0.8% vs prior +2.2%; The Bad... Computers -5.9% vs prior +7.7% and The Ugly... Lumber & Construction Materials (YTD) -16%.
This report excludes manufacturers sales braches & offices, and is based on current dollar values, not unit sales.
Interesting codicil.... Observe the historic unadjusted YTD data 07 vs 06:
Sales: Durable +6.8%; Non Durable +9.6%
Inventory: Durable +7.5%; Non Durable +9.4%
Durable goods sales are lagging causing an inventory build, while non durable sales are treading water.
This means the inventory to sales ratio on durables has actually increased rather than the advertised decrease.
Even more interesting codicil: hold in mind this report is based on current dollars, % change in non durable inventories is slightly lower than sales...
Non durable items aside from some apparel items are consumables and inventories are generally tightly monitored, witnessed by a small YTD shrinkage in the inventories to sales ratio for non durables.
From data in all other reports, GDP is shrinking and so has demand. Do you really think 10% more non durable goods are being produced and consumed this year? NOT!!!
Therefore, we can conclude that the increase in $ value of non durable sales & inventories reflects an approximation of the actual stagflation rate in prices, a conservative 10% ex manufacturing.
initial claims shows more bleed into service & trade... wholesale trade showing stagflations full effect running at 10% ex-manufacturing.
Initial Claims 06/02 -1K @ 309K vs prior 310K Full Report
Inside the number: 4 week MA +2.75K to 307.25K. Continuing claims +72K to 2.54M; 4 week MA -4K to 2.5M.
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State Change State Supplied Comment
IN +1,002 manufacturing
OR +1,257 No comment
NY +1,803 service and manufacturing
MI +1,888 automobile
TX +2,149 trade and service
Wholesale Inventories Apr +0.3% vs prior +0.4% Full Report
Inside the number: Puffed up sales led by petroleum price increases +6.3%, prior revised up from +0.3%.
Sales: The Good? Durable goods +0.8% vs prior +2.2%; The Bad... Computers -5.9% vs prior +7.7% and The Ugly... Lumber & Construction Materials (YTD) -16%.
This report excludes manufacturers sales braches & offices, and is based on current dollar values, not unit sales.
Interesting codicil.... Observe the historic unadjusted YTD data 07 vs 06:
Sales: Durable +6.8%; Non Durable +9.6%
Inventory: Durable +7.5%; Non Durable +9.4%
Durable goods sales are lagging causing an inventory build, while non durable sales are treading water.
This means the inventory to sales ratio on durables has actually increased rather than the advertised decrease.
Even more interesting codicil: hold in mind this report is based on current dollars, % change in non durable inventories is slightly lower than sales...
Non durable items aside from some apparel items are consumables and inventories are generally tightly monitored, witnessed by a small YTD shrinkage in the inventories to sales ratio for non durables.
From data in all other reports, GDP is shrinking and so has demand. Do you really think 10% more non durable goods are being produced and consumed this year? NOT!!!
Therefore, we can conclude that the increase in $ value of non durable sales & inventories reflects an approximation of the actual stagflation rate in prices, a conservative 10% ex manufacturing.
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