2016 NFL Super Bowl 50 Post Mortem

Warm ups: Week 8 we went ATS 7-6-1; Week 16 ATS 5-1

Wild Card Week

We took all the road teams ATS and SU. Lines have been updated to reflect game time pricing as per oddsshark.com.  Line shift: PIT@CIN opened +1 and was a -1.5 game time favorite which covered.

KC 30 -3 @ HOU 0 ATS 1-0; SU 1-0
PIT 18 -1.5 @ CIN 16 ATS 2-0; SU 2-0
SEA 10 -4.5 @ MIN 9 ATS 2-1; SU 3-0
GB 35 +1.5 @ WAS 18 ATS 3-1; SU 4-0

ATS 3-1 and SU 4-0; Not a bad start to the playoffs
A first in NFL history, all four playoff road teams won. Only SEA did not cover.

Divisional

KC 20 +6 @ NE 27  ATS 0-1; SU 0-1
GB 20 @ ARZ 26 -7 ATS 0-2; SU 1-1
SEA 24 +2.5 @ CAR 31 ATS 0-3; SU 1-2
PIT 16 @ DEN 23  -6.5 ATS 1-3; SU 2-2

ATS 4-4 and SU 6-2; stinkin it up vs the spread.

All of the wild card road winners were on the road for a 2nd straight week as dogs. Rolled the dice on KC and SEA, big mistake as all four home favorites won outright and only ARZ did not cover.

Championship

NE 18 -3 @ DEN 20 ATS 1-0; SU 0-1
ARZ 15 @ CAR 49 -3 ATS 2-0; SU 1-1

ATS 6-4 and SU 7-3; a rebound, not so bad considering we went out on a ledge for KC, SEA and NE SU.

SUPER BOWL 50 

A lopsided mismatch and defensive battle as expected.  The Carolina Panthers statistical dominance ... First downs: 21-11; rushing yds 118-90; total passing yds 265-141; net passing yds 197-104; total yds 315-194; 3rd down conversion 3-15 vs 1-14; TOP 33 vs 27 minutes.

The Panthers dominated the game on both sides of the ball. In Q1 the CAR offense had the ONLY successful TD drive in the game on 9 plays for 73 yds. The CAR defense shut down the Denver offense for the game and allowed only one sustained drive of 7 plays for 54 yds resulting in a FG on the Buncos 1st 2nd half possession.  

Last week: "Manning is on a 3 game, 78 pass attempt streak with no picks... Manning will probably throw at least one pick or more."

The stout Panther defense forced two Denver turnovers: a first half interception ended Mannings pick free streak as predicted, resulting in no CAR points as the clock ran out; and a second half fumble at the 50 yd line, leading to a 6 play 29 yard drive for a Panther FG. Those ten CAR points should have been enough for a 10 - 6 victory. 

The final score of SB 50 could easily have been 13-0 with the Panthers achieving the first shut out in SB history.  Five small problems and three DEN led statistics, stood in the path of the Panthers snatching the Lombardi trophy, and resulted in their snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

1. A CAR 10 - 6 victory could have been even more impressive had the Panther's not botched a 1st half punt when the coverage team mysteriously thought that Bronco return man Norwood had signaled a fair catch, leaving him to scamper 61 yds to the CAR 14 yd line, for the longest punt return in SB history. In other words, the Buncos first half FG drive of 64 yds was setup by a Panther special teams gaff and was only a 3 yd drive.

2. To open the 2nd half the usually reliable Panther FG kicker Gano, missed a 44 yd field goal attempt.  This resulted in excellent DEN field position leading to the Broncos 2nd half FG and their ONLY points on the day generated by an sustained offensive drive. Hence the 13 - 0 Panther victory possibility.

3. The 1st Bronco led stat: Penalties DEN 6 - 51 yds; CAR 12 - 102 yds, as untimely penalties plagued multiple CAR drives.

4. The 2nd Bronco led stat: The CAR defense sacked Manning 5 times for 37 yds. The DEN defense sacked CAR QB Newton 7 times (once on a designed run play) for 68 yds.  Despite racking up impressive yardage, Newton was plagued by the smothering Bronco pass rush all day long. So much so, that it would be the difference in the game.

Bronco LB and SB 50 MVP Von Miller registered 2.5 sacks while forcing two fumbles from CAR QB Newton. At 6:34 of Q1 the 1st fumble was recovered for a TD in the CAR end zone resulting in the DEN defense scoring 7 pts.  At 4:16 of Q4, the 2nd fumble was recovered at the CAR 4 yd line, resulting in 8 DEN pts as the Broncos drove 4 short yards and made a 2pt conversion to seal their victory.  2 sacks, 2 fumbles = 15 DEN pts.

5. For shame we should mention the other two CAR turnovers. In Q1, a drive killing fumble after advancing from their 20 to the DEN 40 in 3 plays. In Q3, a drive killing pick after advancing from their 20 to the DEN 28 in 5 plays. The Panthers simply could not get out of their own way.   

Last week: "This is a mismatch on multiple levels which will require DEN to play perfectly while CAR makes a mistake or two."  It was a mismatch, but CAR could not overcome their -2 turnover margin and the resulting 15 Bronco points. 

Last week: "For the Buncos to stay in this game: 1st hang on to the ball, 2nd run the ball successfully, 3rd close with TD's"  Although they could not offensively generate TD drives, the Broncos held onto the ball, better than the Panthers did, while RB CJ Anderson had 90 yds on 23 carries. 

Other than the above, as the Panthers offense moved the ball and their defense was stout, the Bronco offense did nothing, while their defense forced 4 game winning turnovers.

In closing, we have some statistics: In 50 SB's, teams like the Panthers, holding their opponent to:

11 first downs or less, a perfect 8-0 until SB 50.

total yards of 195 or less, a perfect 7-0 until SB 50.

having a total yard margin of +120 or greater, 12-1 .923 until SB50.

The 2001 NE Patriots who were outgained -160 yds in their 20-17 win over the STL Rams share this SB distinction with the 2016 DEN Broncos.

In the playoffs since 1970, teams with 21 or more 1st downs, holding their opponent to 11 or less, 29-3 .906 winning pct.

In the playoffs since 1991 (stat not available prior), teams holding their opponent to 1 or less 3rd down conversions, a perfect 14-0, until SB50.

And finally, Last week: "He who makes the least mistakes wins. If Uncle TOM bites either team... In playoffs, if TOM -1 or more, combined 71-312 18.5% win.  In SB's if TOM -1 or more; 5-36; 12.2% win." 

The 3rd and final Bronco led stat and the MOST important because it TRUMPS all the above:  Turnovers: DEN 2; CAR 4 . Since 1970, in the playoffs: Teams with +2 TOM = 83-17 .830; In SB's 6-1 .857

CAR 10 -5.5 @ DEN 24  ATS 0-1;SU 0-1

For the playoffs ATS 6-5 and SU 7-4; meh that's why they call it gambling. Until next year.