NFL 2016 Playoffs Super Bowl LI Result
Following up on our NFL 2016 Playoffs Super Bowl LI preview and predictions... all stats provided by the data wizards at Pro Football Reference.
Sunday Feb 5th, 2017
NRG Stadium - Houston, Texas
IN OVERTIME: #1 NE Patriots 34 vs. #2 ATL Falcons 28
Spread NE -3 OU 59
And now some odds and Super Bowl history: overtime opened +700, closed +894, it went there for the first time; that Q1 would end tied +375; scoreless at the end of the 1st quarter.
The team that has scored first has won 68% of the time. When the first score was a TD (24 times), that team won 70.8% of the time. Scoring first, this season: ATL 7-1; NE not scoring first 4-2. The Falcons scored first with a TD.
Halftime ATL 21 - NE 3; The team leading at half has won 78.7% of the time. No team leading by more than 7 points at half has EVER lost a Super Bowl (50-0). Leading at the half: ATL 12-1; NE not leading at the half 0-2
End of Q3 ATL 28 - NE 9; The team leading at the end of the third quarter has won 81.6% of the time. Leading after 3Q: ATL 13-2; NE not leading 0-2. Teams leading by more than 3 points at the end of the third quarter are 40-5.
Teams leading by 7 points or more at the end of the third are 33-3. Only once has a team leading by more than 7 at the end of the third lost the game (SEA two years ago, as the Patriots became the 1st team to come back from a 10 point deficit in the 2nd half).
With 6:12 remaining in Q3 and the score ATL 28 - NE 3, the ESPN game win probability graph rightfully showed ATL 99.7% and NE 0.3%.
Sacred TOM and turnovers, NE 2 ATL 1; Brady had an INT returned 82 yds by the Dirty Birds for a TD, the Falcon's did not return the favor.
Since 1966, road teams giving at least one pick six without getting one back: in regular season 82% lose, in the playoffs 4-43 or 91.5% lose, in SB's a perfect 0-12; combined post season 4-55 for 93.3% losers.
Since 1940 (includes the old AFL), on the road or neutral site, in the playoffs, teams with negative TOM differential 24-250, for a 91.3% probability of losing.
And mercifully, teams leading by 19 points or more at the end of Q3: regular season were 2379-14-3 for a 99.4 winning percentage, in the playoffs a collective 94-0.
The Falcons rushed for 104 yds on only 18 carries, Private Ryan was 17 of 23 for 283yds passing with a stellar rating of 144. All game long, the Falcons made only three mistakes, and for the timing of which, they would pay dearly. Both teams allowed 5 sacks...
#1: With 8:24 left, at the ATL 25, allowing a QB sack resulted in a fumble recovery by NE.
#2: With 3:36 left at the NE 24, another QB sack resulted in an ATL 10 yd loss.
#3: On the ensuing play a 10 yd holding penalty. -20 yds put ATL out of range for what would have been a game clinching field goal, and forced a punt.
Those three mistakes resulted in, two TD's and 2 pt conversions in short order, for 16 Patriot points to tie the game with 57 seconds remaining. Thus, turning the Dirty Bird's high flying dreams, into a poultry processing plant nightmare and a Pat-riot Party.
Credit goes where it is due, and Brady passes Montana and Bradshaw to collect a record 5th SB ring for the thumb, while Belichick ties Lombardi for a 5th eponymous NFL championship trophy.
In closing, ending this years playoffs on an 0-3 streak ATS and SU, the Nattering One finished an atrocious ATS 5-6 SU 6-5. We take solace as things could be much worse...
An unidentified bettor who is a customer of CG Technology, which operates a string of sports books in Las Vegas, used his phone app to wager $1.1M. The bettor would have got $2.1M back if the Falcons won the game or lost by 1 or 2 points. Perhaps some of this?
The last three SB's have seen teams prevail under freakish statistical circumstance. Reading the probabilities herein, for 2016 and 2015, the winners could easily have been losers. Football, a game of inches, and against all odds, inches make a champion.
More solace, we were not solitary in our Falcon's prediction being shot down in flames. Having also picked those Dirty Birds', Yowie the Dog's perfect playoff season ended only slightly soiled at 10-1 SU.
As she is very "Manfred", we have no bone to pick with lovable Yowie. But it would seem that prognosticating, at least for the Nattering One, has literally, gone to the dogs.
Sunday Feb 5th, 2017
NRG Stadium - Houston, Texas
IN OVERTIME: #1 NE Patriots 34 vs. #2 ATL Falcons 28
Spread NE -3 OU 59
The Pats have committed three turnovers while getting five takeaways. Regarding the Pats sloppy three turnovers vs the Texans: A team taking advantage of TOM (not Brady), would have eaten the Pats alive. As opposed to NE, the Falcons have gotten 4 takeaways, while committing ZERO turnovers.After committing two turnovers to none, the Pats entrails were being pecked apart by the hungry Falcons. Trailing 28-3 with 8:31 remaining in the 3rd, Terrific Tom and the Manfred Minutemen acted like true Wonderdog's, by beating seemingly insurmountable odd's in scoring 31 unanswered points.
The Pats have lost TOP -5 mins vs HOU, +3 mins vs PIT for net -2... ATL won TOP +7 min vs SEA; +7 min vs GB for a net +14.NE won 1st downs 37-17; 3DC (3rd down conversion) 7-14 vs 1-8; Pass yds 466 vs 284; off plays 88 vs 41; and most importantly TOP 40-23 min.
"This game is going to be a game of keep away."Despite violating most every statistical rule of thumb in getting behind big, including throwing a pick six, missing a PAT and losing the sacred TOM battle, the Patriots managed to win TOP and exploit ATL's tired defense when it was most critical.
And now some odds and Super Bowl history: overtime opened +700, closed +894, it went there for the first time; that Q1 would end tied +375; scoreless at the end of the 1st quarter.
The team that has scored first has won 68% of the time. When the first score was a TD (24 times), that team won 70.8% of the time. Scoring first, this season: ATL 7-1; NE not scoring first 4-2. The Falcons scored first with a TD.
Halftime ATL 21 - NE 3; The team leading at half has won 78.7% of the time. No team leading by more than 7 points at half has EVER lost a Super Bowl (50-0). Leading at the half: ATL 12-1; NE not leading at the half 0-2
End of Q3 ATL 28 - NE 9; The team leading at the end of the third quarter has won 81.6% of the time. Leading after 3Q: ATL 13-2; NE not leading 0-2. Teams leading by more than 3 points at the end of the third quarter are 40-5.
Teams leading by 7 points or more at the end of the third are 33-3. Only once has a team leading by more than 7 at the end of the third lost the game (SEA two years ago, as the Patriots became the 1st team to come back from a 10 point deficit in the 2nd half).
With 6:12 remaining in Q3 and the score ATL 28 - NE 3, the ESPN game win probability graph rightfully showed ATL 99.7% and NE 0.3%.
Sacred TOM and turnovers, NE 2 ATL 1; Brady had an INT returned 82 yds by the Dirty Birds for a TD, the Falcon's did not return the favor.
Since 1966, road teams giving at least one pick six without getting one back: in regular season 82% lose, in the playoffs 4-43 or 91.5% lose, in SB's a perfect 0-12; combined post season 4-55 for 93.3% losers.
Since 1940 (includes the old AFL), on the road or neutral site, in the playoffs, teams with negative TOM differential 24-250, for a 91.3% probability of losing.
And mercifully, teams leading by 19 points or more at the end of Q3: regular season were 2379-14-3 for a 99.4 winning percentage, in the playoffs a collective 94-0.
The Falcons rushed for 104 yds on only 18 carries, Private Ryan was 17 of 23 for 283yds passing with a stellar rating of 144. All game long, the Falcons made only three mistakes, and for the timing of which, they would pay dearly. Both teams allowed 5 sacks...
#1: With 8:24 left, at the ATL 25, allowing a QB sack resulted in a fumble recovery by NE.
#2: With 3:36 left at the NE 24, another QB sack resulted in an ATL 10 yd loss.
#3: On the ensuing play a 10 yd holding penalty. -20 yds put ATL out of range for what would have been a game clinching field goal, and forced a punt.
Those three mistakes resulted in, two TD's and 2 pt conversions in short order, for 16 Patriot points to tie the game with 57 seconds remaining. Thus, turning the Dirty Bird's high flying dreams, into a poultry processing plant nightmare and a Pat-riot Party.
Credit goes where it is due, and Brady passes Montana and Bradshaw to collect a record 5th SB ring for the thumb, while Belichick ties Lombardi for a 5th eponymous NFL championship trophy.
In closing, ending this years playoffs on an 0-3 streak ATS and SU, the Nattering One finished an atrocious ATS 5-6 SU 6-5. We take solace as things could be much worse...
An unidentified bettor who is a customer of CG Technology, which operates a string of sports books in Las Vegas, used his phone app to wager $1.1M. The bettor would have got $2.1M back if the Falcons won the game or lost by 1 or 2 points. Perhaps some of this?
The last three SB's have seen teams prevail under freakish statistical circumstance. Reading the probabilities herein, for 2016 and 2015, the winners could easily have been losers. Football, a game of inches, and against all odds, inches make a champion.
More solace, we were not solitary in our Falcon's prediction being shot down in flames. Having also picked those Dirty Birds', Yowie the Dog's perfect playoff season ended only slightly soiled at 10-1 SU.
As she is very "Manfred", we have no bone to pick with lovable Yowie. But it would seem that prognosticating, at least for the Nattering One, has literally, gone to the dogs.
Comments
After you were vindicated by the impossible catch of Julio Jones, you were undone by the far more impossible catch of Julian Edelman. Julio, Julian... how were you to know?