2018 NFL Divisional Weekend Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that seat or content down loading time to good use?
Wildcard weekend depending on the premium one paid for their spread, all four road dogs covered, with the Philly Foles winning outright. Divisional weekend the premium for home field advantage with at least a week off, has been ratcheted up.
At the end of last year, it was neck and neck with Case Keefer. We finished the regular (146-103-7) and post season (151-108-8) as NUMBER ONE picking all NFL games against the spread (ATS) on the Web.
Recapping this years exploits in the land of the number... Since Week 9, we vaporized a THIRTEEN game deficit to pass both the Boston Globe's Ben Volin @ 135-114-11, and CBS's Jamey Eisenberg @ 141-112-7.
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the MSM sand (much like moi). After 18 weeks and 260 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is @ 147-106-7. Deja Vu?
After going 3-1 last week, and cursing the National Flag-ball League Zebras for robbing the Bears, we seem to be flying higher now. Deja Vu and where in the world are we now?
Having passed Volin, Eisenberg and all others @ 143-115-2, in three short weeks we have cut said NINE game deficit down to FOUR, with only SEVEN playoff games remaining. Deja Vu?
Moving West... following up on last weeks "getting strong now, won't be long now", this weeks theme?
Apropos we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or
Baby, I swear it's Déjà Vu
COMING OFF BYES: NO, LAR, KC, NE
Saturday 16:35 EST NBC O/U 56
Snow 32F, 88% Humidity, Precipitation 65%, Wind 10mph
IND @ KC
Of Note: IND away 4-4; KC home 7-1; TOM KC +9; IND +2; D sacks KC 52; IND 38. KC HRunD 134ypg #28; KC HRunO 98ypg #23; IND ARunD 99ypg #8; KC D RZ #31; 3DC #25. IND D RZ #11; 3DC #23. IND Safety Mitchell is out. KC WR Watkins should play.
Trending from Week13:
RZ D: IND 43% 4.7ypp #16; KC 74% 8.2ypp #32
RZ O: IND 53% #4; KC 58% #1
IND: TO 8; TA 7
KC: TO 5: TA 10
YTD Luck sacked 18 times, best in the NFL and his O-line is pancaking people of late. Over the last five games (@HOU, DAL, NYG, @TEN, @HOU) the Colt D has looked stellar vs run and pass. Who wouldn't against those teams?
Eli, the one opposing QB who has a downfield game gained 309yds. In Week 10, Blake Bortles put up 324yds on the Colts. The ground game cranked out 178, 158 and 200 yds vs DAL, TEN, HOU, and those teams can defend the run. What will the Colts do to the Chefs #31D?
After starting 9-1, the Chefs finished 3-3 and since the MNF 5TO loss to the Rams, 5 games during which the KC pass D has allowed only 221ypg. This is because opponents don't have to pass, as the run D is matador-like allowing avg 164ypg.
Patrick Mahomes sacked only 26 times. Virgin playoff QB's since 2002 @ 14-32 SU. Since the 1970 merger, rookie QB's in the playoffs when facing a veteran, are 6-17 SU. The Colts have an ok secondary and only made 38 sacks. Ma-homes having been tempered in prime time matchup's this year, might be immune to a case of nerves at this point.
Ma-Homes Chefs #1 offense ripped up JAX, NE, PIT, LAR, LAC, SEA and BAL defenses. Since Kareem Hunt's release, the running game is less explosive. The Chef defense has not stopped anyone, because they haven't had to. Opposing defenses have not been able to stop Ma-Homes cookin.
Expect an un-harried Ma-homes to have a HUGE day, unless the Chefs have a Week 15 deja-vu. The season offensive low 294yds vs the Bolts who had to come from behind 14-0 to win 29-28. Winning the TOP possession battle was key.
Expect Luck to get some pressure from the KC pass rush and RB Mack to potentially have a HUGE day. Unless the Colts have a Week 16 deja-vu. The visiting Gmen jumped out early 14-0, deja-vu? Playing catch up neutralized the Colt ground game to 49yds on 16 carries, which lost the TOP battle.
In a last second 28-27 win at home vs the Gmen's non existent O-line, the Colts could get away with falling behind. On the road vs the Chefs? To stay close, the Colts have to play keep away, convert TD's, not make any TO's and get some bounces. In other words, perfect with a little Luck.
KC SU playoffs 1-10, vs Colts 3-13, @ Arrowhead 1-7 , deja vu for Ma-homes Chefs? Last but not least, after starting 1-5, the New Reich Horseshoes come in fresh off a DOME road win on a 10-1 roll. The 10 wins were over teams having serious O-line problems. We don't see those kinds of conditions in KC or the Horseshoes being perfectly Luck-y enough.
Speaking of conditions, DOME teams OUTDOORS in the playoffs: since 2003 SU 8-24 or 25%. Since the merger, at a temp. of 35F or less 4-27 or 13%. In the regular season under those conditions, Luck is 2-2 and 2-0 @ KC. With a temp of 40F or less, Luck is 5-1 including a playoff win. Read the forecast at the heading.
IMHO, the Luck stat is the only deja vu one might pay heed to. The line opened at -4 and shot up to -6, as some bettors think the Chefs will keep on cookin and Saturday's plat du jour is Equine. We concur.
Pick: KC -4 LOCK
Saturday 20:15 EST FOX O/U 48.5
DAL @ LAR
Of Note: LAR Home 7-1; DAL Away 3-5. TOM LAR +11 DAL +3. LAR HPassD 258ypg #28; HRunD 120ypg #21. 3DC D DAL 42% #27 vs O LAR 45% #5
Trending from Week 13:
RZ D DAL 61% 8.9 ypp #31; LAR 44% 5.4ypp #18
RZ O DAL 34% #30; LAR 50% #6
Overall O: DAL 49% #9; LAR 53% #2
Overall D: DAL 47% #21; LAR 41% #3
After an 8-0 start, the Gurley Ewes are 4-3. Through Week 11 10-1 with 9TO and 20TA, since 3-2 with 10TO and 10TA. In allowing 33 sacks, the Rams have done a decent job protecting Goff. Since Wk 8 Goff 234ypg, 86.2 rating, #23. WR Cooper Kupp went down Wk 10.
Since Wk 13, (@DET, @CHI, PHI, ARZ, SF) anemic 219ypg, 6.7ypa, 6 TD, 6 int, rating 79, #27 out of 30 with min. 100 atts. QB's throwing against LA: 43% success; 71.8 rating; 4TD's, 8ints, #2 pass defense in the NFL. Stafford played injured, Trubisky, Rosen and Mullen? Hitting the side of a barn comes to mind. The high was Ol Saint Nick Foles with 270yds. Why bother to pass when the Rams allowed 5.1ypc, dead last at #32?
After a 3-5 start, Jerry's Kidz ride into LA on a 8-1 streak. Many believe that the Pokes can grind it out on the ground, stuff Gurley and force Goff to make mistakes. The Philly Foles did it in Week 15, and the Pokes just eliminated a Squawk team which gave the Rams fits twice this year, so why not create a little deja vu for the Ewes?
Jerry Kidz don't travel well, during the 3-5 start, road losses CAR, SEA, HOU, WAS; during the 8-1 streak, 27-20 PHI, 22-19 ATL, skunked @ IND 0-23, and the meaningless 36-35 NYG W. The Pokes had their share of O-line problems reflected in their HAM getting sacked 56 times, 2nd worst in the NFL.
Could the Rams sell out on the pass to crowd the box and defend the run? Homey don't think so. The Week 8 trade for WR Cooper has given the Pokes a pass boost and vertical stretch to augment the ground game. That trade yielded a tasty treat as since Jerry's Kidz enjoy smoked DAK: 71% complete, 7.6ypa, 13TD, 4 int, 101.6 rating, #5 in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, expect the Rams to rev up the pass game to set up the run. Big D allowed only 3.8ypc #5. However, since Week 9 the Pokes run D has been gashed from the right side, and that is where Gurley and C.J. have trampled opponents. Expect McVay to stretch the field with a few Jet sets to both sides where the Pokes have also been victimized.
For both teams it is as simple as this, just run, hold the rock and win baby. Regardless of yds gained or avg, games with rush attempts less than 19: Rams 13-0; Boyz 10-4. Those who choose to ignore this maxim, or cannot execute were a collective 11-106-1 or 97% losers.
The last time these two met Wk 4 2017 in Jerrys World, both D's were wanting, the Rams kicked seven FG's and won 35-30. Think this years RZ conversion rates on both sides of the ball. Quite frankly, were it not for the National Flagball League Zebras gifting them 7pts last week, Jerry's Kidz would be like the rest of us, sitting at home watching.
Week 14, the Rams got a Mack Daddy Paddington beat down on MNF in Chitown, the following short week, caught off guard, ill-prepared and making mistakes, the Rams learned their lesson the hard way with Ol' Saint Nick.
This line went down from -7 to -6.5, then up to -8.5 in some books as a few bettors don't think that will happen again. With Wk 16 ARZ, Wk 17 SF, and the extra week off to rest and prepare, we don't think there will be any deja vu here.
Pick: LAR -6.5
Sunday 13:05 EST CBS O/U 47.5
Party Cloudy 27F, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 38%, Wind 6mph
LAC @ NE
Of Note: NE Pass D 246ypg #22. TOM NE +10; LAC +1. LAC NT Mebane and TE Henry will play. NE home 8-0; LAC away 7-1
Trending since Week 13:
RZ O LAC 47% #13; NE 50% #6
RZ D LAC 44% #18; NE 47% #23
Overall O: LAC 46% #16; NE 52% #3
Overall D: LAC 46% #17; NE 48% #24
The Minutemen protected Brady allowing only 21 sacks. On the other side, pressure was at a premium registering only 30 sacks, and the run D was gashed for 4.9ypc #29. Since Week 13, the Pats run D has been porous over tackle and guard on both sides.
With the exception of HOU Wk 1, all four teams 150yd+ rushing against NE, registered wins. Since a 7-2 start with losses @JAX, @DET; NE 4-3 wins MIN, BUF, NYJ (2). Since Week 7, NE 5 TO's, 14 TA's. Bolts last 3 games prior to the Ravens WC, TO 9, TA 5.
A secret weapon? Bolt TE's Gates and Green combined YTD 72 targets, 34 rec, 345 yds. In 2017 starting TE Hunter Henry 62 targets, 45 rec, 579 yds. Henry has not played this year due to a preseason ACL injury. The Hunter has been practicing with the 1st team and is slated to play.
The Bolts 7-1 away with impressive W's @ SEA; PIT and KC. The latter two were back to back 2nd half double digit road comebacks. Impressive and history making as the Steelers at home when leading by 14+ points were 220-0-2 viz. never happened before.
This year after starting 9-3 Belichick's Boyz finished 2-2 with losses @MIA @PIT, wins over BUF and NYJ. Perfect at the Razor's Edge but registering a sub .500 road record 3-5 for the 1st time since 2009. Since 1973, when playing the Bolts, the Minutemen are 17-3 SU. Deja Vu?
Aside from a run O and D tilt to the Bolts, and defensive efficiency tilted to the Pats, these teams match up evenly on both sides of the ball. NE makes up the difference in exploitative schemes and turnovers. I don't expect the NE run game to do much, and without J. Gordon to stretch, who does Brady have to throw to these days?
Unlike the 5 FG inability to close against the Raven D, the Bolts should be able to move the ball and convert TD's. The Bolts come off a defensive redemption at the Ravens expense. Action Jackson is one thing, Tom Terrific will be a more difficult task.
Expect the Bolts to shut down the Pat run game, and attempt to pressure Brady, over aggressiveness may backfire. San Angeles should control the ball, tempo and clock, any turnovers by either side will be costly. NE SU home: playoff games 19-3; 8-0 streak; Brady vs Rivers 7-0. Deja Vu?
The line opened at -5, went to -3.5 and back to -4. Much like last week, this week's heaviest bet side is the Hey-LA My Bosa's Back Bolts. John Q must know something about teams of destiny? At home when leading 10+ going into the 4th quarter, NE is 163-0-1. Deja vu all over again? Somehow, I can see it now...
Pick: LAC +5 LOCK
Sunday 16:40 EST FOX O/U 52
PHI @ NO
Of Note: NO home 7-1; PHI away 4-4. TOM PHI #25 -6; NO #7 +8. PHI 29ARunO 99ypg; PHI 31APassD 304ypg; NO 32HPassD 298ypg. Defense: 3DC NO 41% #24; PHI 35% #6. RZ NO 63% #23; PHI 44% #1.
Trending since Week 13:
RZ O PHI 44% #17; NO 54% #2
RZ D PHI 39% 6.6yds #10; NO 42% 5.5yds #13
Since Week 13 Pietists starting O-line Armstead, Bushrod, Ramczyk, Peat, Warford have all been knicked and absent one week or another. During that stretch, a loss @ DAL, 1st half difficulty @TB, more @ CAR and home PIT. Excluding the Week 17 starters vacation, the Saints passing game was a pathetic 6.5ypa, 3TD, 4 int, 82.2 rating, #24 in the NFL.
Despite the spate of injuries, said O-line allowed Brees to be sacked only 20 times. All Saint O-line members have been practicing. With two weeks of rest, the patch work O-line problems should be somewhat alleviated and much needed. Only managing 40 sacks, the Eagles rotation of 10 front men, applies fresh legs and constant pressure which knocks QB's off their spot, witness Tom Terrific in last years SB.
The Eagles have had their share of O-line injures, the run game has suffered #30 at 3.9ypc, and QB's have been sacked 40 times. The Saint's bring a strong pass rush with 49 sacks YTD. Since Week 13, Wentz and Ol Saint Nick have the Eagles screaming at 8.0ypa, 14TD, 6 int, 105.2 rating, #3 in the NFL.
Last time out in Week 11, Pietist RB's Kamara and Ingram 174 yds on 29 carries, WR's Smith and Thomas 259 yds on 14 receptions. With the Eagles D completely healthy, present and playing without excuses, they registered 3 tackles for loss, 1 QB hit, 1 sack, 0 TO's. Meanwhile the Saints 7 TFL's, 5 QB hits, 3 sacks, 5TO's, 2 on downs.
When the Fleagles got behind 17-0 before you could say boo, they abandoned the run 12-58yds. NO 4TD drives circa 85 yds, 1 @ 70 yds, with only 10pts on short field drives after TO's on downs, and 546 to 196 total yards. The Pietists tarred n feathered, then rode the Eagles hard and put them away wet, in a 48-7 evisceration.
Don't think the Philly Foles forgot being made to look like a college team as they come in on a 6-1 streak, lone loss in OT @ Jerry World. PHI Pass D #30, Run D #7 in yds and for a good reason, their secondary is pedestrian. With the #21 YPA run D 4.7ypc if a team can run and pass, which the Pietists can, then the Eagles can't do what they did last week, sell out on the pass to defend the run.
In last weeks sell out, Trubisky 303yds, Robinson 143yds, imagine what Brees, Thomas and Co. can do again. Deja Vu? Frankly, were it not for the Bears beating the Norsemen, Parkey Double Doinky and the National Flagball League Zebra's interceding on their behalf with a 7pt gift last week, the Eagles would be like the rest of us, at home watching this game.
The spread opened at -7.5 and has gone as high as -10.5 in some books. Apparently, some are not buying the Ol' Saint Nick magic and dog mask show. Neither are we waxing nostalgic as Trubisky and Nagy are one thing, Brees and Payton are quite another. Of late, Pietists in the Big Easy: 14-2 SU, 5-0 in playoffs, 4-1 vs PHI.
Despite the Philly Foles potential to back door the fattest spread of the week, we have faith. The well rested and healthy Big Easy Pietists will make a statement by creating just enough Week 11 deja vu for their fine feathered guests.
Pick: NO -7.5
Pick
Fav H3 R0
Dog H0 R1
Home 3; Road 1
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
Wildcard weekend depending on the premium one paid for their spread, all four road dogs covered, with the Philly Foles winning outright. Divisional weekend the premium for home field advantage with at least a week off, has been ratcheted up.
At the end of last year, it was neck and neck with Case Keefer. We finished the regular (146-103-7) and post season (151-108-8) as NUMBER ONE picking all NFL games against the spread (ATS) on the Web.
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the MSM sand (much like moi). After 18 weeks and 260 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is @ 147-106-7. Deja Vu?
After going 3-1 last week, and cursing the National Flag-ball League Zebras for robbing the Bears, we seem to be flying higher now. Deja Vu and where in the world are we now?
Having passed Volin, Eisenberg and all others @ 143-115-2, in three short weeks we have cut said NINE game deficit down to FOUR, with only SEVEN playoff games remaining. Deja Vu?
Moving West... following up on last weeks "getting strong now, won't be long now", this weeks theme?
Apropos we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or
Baby, I swear it's Déjà Vu
COMING OFF BYES: NO, LAR, KC, NE
Saturday 16:35 EST NBC O/U 56
Snow 32F, 88% Humidity, Precipitation 65%, Wind 10mph
IND @ KC
Of Note: IND away 4-4; KC home 7-1; TOM KC +9; IND +2; D sacks KC 52; IND 38. KC HRunD 134ypg #28; KC HRunO 98ypg #23; IND ARunD 99ypg #8; KC D RZ #31; 3DC #25. IND D RZ #11; 3DC #23. IND Safety Mitchell is out. KC WR Watkins should play.
Trending from Week13:
RZ D: IND 43% 4.7ypp #16; KC 74% 8.2ypp #32
RZ O: IND 53% #4; KC 58% #1
IND: TO 8; TA 7
KC: TO 5: TA 10
YTD Luck sacked 18 times, best in the NFL and his O-line is pancaking people of late. Over the last five games (@HOU, DAL, NYG, @TEN, @HOU) the Colt D has looked stellar vs run and pass. Who wouldn't against those teams?
Eli, the one opposing QB who has a downfield game gained 309yds. In Week 10, Blake Bortles put up 324yds on the Colts. The ground game cranked out 178, 158 and 200 yds vs DAL, TEN, HOU, and those teams can defend the run. What will the Colts do to the Chefs #31D?
After starting 9-1, the Chefs finished 3-3 and since the MNF 5TO loss to the Rams, 5 games during which the KC pass D has allowed only 221ypg. This is because opponents don't have to pass, as the run D is matador-like allowing avg 164ypg.
Patrick Mahomes sacked only 26 times. Virgin playoff QB's since 2002 @ 14-32 SU. Since the 1970 merger, rookie QB's in the playoffs when facing a veteran, are 6-17 SU. The Colts have an ok secondary and only made 38 sacks. Ma-homes having been tempered in prime time matchup's this year, might be immune to a case of nerves at this point.
Ma-Homes Chefs #1 offense ripped up JAX, NE, PIT, LAR, LAC, SEA and BAL defenses. Since Kareem Hunt's release, the running game is less explosive. The Chef defense has not stopped anyone, because they haven't had to. Opposing defenses have not been able to stop Ma-Homes cookin.
Expect an un-harried Ma-homes to have a HUGE day, unless the Chefs have a Week 15 deja-vu. The season offensive low 294yds vs the Bolts who had to come from behind 14-0 to win 29-28. Winning the TOP possession battle was key.
Expect Luck to get some pressure from the KC pass rush and RB Mack to potentially have a HUGE day. Unless the Colts have a Week 16 deja-vu. The visiting Gmen jumped out early 14-0, deja-vu? Playing catch up neutralized the Colt ground game to 49yds on 16 carries, which lost the TOP battle.
In a last second 28-27 win at home vs the Gmen's non existent O-line, the Colts could get away with falling behind. On the road vs the Chefs? To stay close, the Colts have to play keep away, convert TD's, not make any TO's and get some bounces. In other words, perfect with a little Luck.
KC SU playoffs 1-10, vs Colts 3-13, @ Arrowhead 1-7 , deja vu for Ma-homes Chefs? Last but not least, after starting 1-5, the New Reich Horseshoes come in fresh off a DOME road win on a 10-1 roll. The 10 wins were over teams having serious O-line problems. We don't see those kinds of conditions in KC or the Horseshoes being perfectly Luck-y enough.
Speaking of conditions, DOME teams OUTDOORS in the playoffs: since 2003 SU 8-24 or 25%. Since the merger, at a temp. of 35F or less 4-27 or 13%. In the regular season under those conditions, Luck is 2-2 and 2-0 @ KC. With a temp of 40F or less, Luck is 5-1 including a playoff win. Read the forecast at the heading.
IMHO, the Luck stat is the only deja vu one might pay heed to. The line opened at -4 and shot up to -6, as some bettors think the Chefs will keep on cookin and Saturday's plat du jour is Equine. We concur.
Pick: KC -4 LOCK
Saturday 20:15 EST FOX O/U 48.5
DAL @ LAR
Of Note: LAR Home 7-1; DAL Away 3-5. TOM LAR +11 DAL +3. LAR HPassD 258ypg #28; HRunD 120ypg #21. 3DC D DAL 42% #27 vs O LAR 45% #5
Trending from Week 13:
RZ D DAL 61% 8.9 ypp #31; LAR 44% 5.4ypp #18
RZ O DAL 34% #30; LAR 50% #6
Overall O: DAL 49% #9; LAR 53% #2
Overall D: DAL 47% #21; LAR 41% #3
After an 8-0 start, the Gurley Ewes are 4-3. Through Week 11 10-1 with 9TO and 20TA, since 3-2 with 10TO and 10TA. In allowing 33 sacks, the Rams have done a decent job protecting Goff. Since Wk 8 Goff 234ypg, 86.2 rating, #23. WR Cooper Kupp went down Wk 10.
Since Wk 13, (@DET, @CHI, PHI, ARZ, SF) anemic 219ypg, 6.7ypa, 6 TD, 6 int, rating 79, #27 out of 30 with min. 100 atts. QB's throwing against LA: 43% success; 71.8 rating; 4TD's, 8ints, #2 pass defense in the NFL. Stafford played injured, Trubisky, Rosen and Mullen? Hitting the side of a barn comes to mind. The high was Ol Saint Nick Foles with 270yds. Why bother to pass when the Rams allowed 5.1ypc, dead last at #32?
After a 3-5 start, Jerry's Kidz ride into LA on a 8-1 streak. Many believe that the Pokes can grind it out on the ground, stuff Gurley and force Goff to make mistakes. The Philly Foles did it in Week 15, and the Pokes just eliminated a Squawk team which gave the Rams fits twice this year, so why not create a little deja vu for the Ewes?
Jerry Kidz don't travel well, during the 3-5 start, road losses CAR, SEA, HOU, WAS; during the 8-1 streak, 27-20 PHI, 22-19 ATL, skunked @ IND 0-23, and the meaningless 36-35 NYG W. The Pokes had their share of O-line problems reflected in their HAM getting sacked 56 times, 2nd worst in the NFL.
Could the Rams sell out on the pass to crowd the box and defend the run? Homey don't think so. The Week 8 trade for WR Cooper has given the Pokes a pass boost and vertical stretch to augment the ground game. That trade yielded a tasty treat as since Jerry's Kidz enjoy smoked DAK: 71% complete, 7.6ypa, 13TD, 4 int, 101.6 rating, #5 in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, expect the Rams to rev up the pass game to set up the run. Big D allowed only 3.8ypc #5. However, since Week 9 the Pokes run D has been gashed from the right side, and that is where Gurley and C.J. have trampled opponents. Expect McVay to stretch the field with a few Jet sets to both sides where the Pokes have also been victimized.
For both teams it is as simple as this, just run, hold the rock and win baby. Regardless of yds gained or avg, games with rush attempts less than 19: Rams 13-0; Boyz 10-4. Those who choose to ignore this maxim, or cannot execute were a collective 11-106-1 or 97% losers.
The last time these two met Wk 4 2017 in Jerrys World, both D's were wanting, the Rams kicked seven FG's and won 35-30. Think this years RZ conversion rates on both sides of the ball. Quite frankly, were it not for the National Flagball League Zebras gifting them 7pts last week, Jerry's Kidz would be like the rest of us, sitting at home watching.
Week 14, the Rams got a Mack Daddy Paddington beat down on MNF in Chitown, the following short week, caught off guard, ill-prepared and making mistakes, the Rams learned their lesson the hard way with Ol' Saint Nick.
This line went down from -7 to -6.5, then up to -8.5 in some books as a few bettors don't think that will happen again. With Wk 16 ARZ, Wk 17 SF, and the extra week off to rest and prepare, we don't think there will be any deja vu here.
Pick: LAR -6.5
Sunday 13:05 EST CBS O/U 47.5
Party Cloudy 27F, Precipitation 0%, Humidity 38%, Wind 6mph
LAC @ NE
Of Note: NE Pass D 246ypg #22. TOM NE +10; LAC +1. LAC NT Mebane and TE Henry will play. NE home 8-0; LAC away 7-1
Trending since Week 13:
RZ O LAC 47% #13; NE 50% #6
RZ D LAC 44% #18; NE 47% #23
Overall O: LAC 46% #16; NE 52% #3
Overall D: LAC 46% #17; NE 48% #24
The Minutemen protected Brady allowing only 21 sacks. On the other side, pressure was at a premium registering only 30 sacks, and the run D was gashed for 4.9ypc #29. Since Week 13, the Pats run D has been porous over tackle and guard on both sides.
With the exception of HOU Wk 1, all four teams 150yd+ rushing against NE, registered wins. Since a 7-2 start with losses @JAX, @DET; NE 4-3 wins MIN, BUF, NYJ (2). Since Week 7, NE 5 TO's, 14 TA's. Bolts last 3 games prior to the Ravens WC, TO 9, TA 5.
A secret weapon? Bolt TE's Gates and Green combined YTD 72 targets, 34 rec, 345 yds. In 2017 starting TE Hunter Henry 62 targets, 45 rec, 579 yds. Henry has not played this year due to a preseason ACL injury. The Hunter has been practicing with the 1st team and is slated to play.
The Bolts 7-1 away with impressive W's @ SEA; PIT and KC. The latter two were back to back 2nd half double digit road comebacks. Impressive and history making as the Steelers at home when leading by 14+ points were 220-0-2 viz. never happened before.
This year after starting 9-3 Belichick's Boyz finished 2-2 with losses @MIA @PIT, wins over BUF and NYJ. Perfect at the Razor's Edge but registering a sub .500 road record 3-5 for the 1st time since 2009. Since 1973, when playing the Bolts, the Minutemen are 17-3 SU. Deja Vu?
Aside from a run O and D tilt to the Bolts, and defensive efficiency tilted to the Pats, these teams match up evenly on both sides of the ball. NE makes up the difference in exploitative schemes and turnovers. I don't expect the NE run game to do much, and without J. Gordon to stretch, who does Brady have to throw to these days?
Unlike the 5 FG inability to close against the Raven D, the Bolts should be able to move the ball and convert TD's. The Bolts come off a defensive redemption at the Ravens expense. Action Jackson is one thing, Tom Terrific will be a more difficult task.
Expect the Bolts to shut down the Pat run game, and attempt to pressure Brady, over aggressiveness may backfire. San Angeles should control the ball, tempo and clock, any turnovers by either side will be costly. NE SU home: playoff games 19-3; 8-0 streak; Brady vs Rivers 7-0. Deja Vu?
The line opened at -5, went to -3.5 and back to -4. Much like last week, this week's heaviest bet side is the Hey-LA My Bosa's Back Bolts. John Q must know something about teams of destiny? At home when leading 10+ going into the 4th quarter, NE is 163-0-1. Deja vu all over again? Somehow, I can see it now...
Sunday 16:40 EST FOX O/U 52
PHI @ NO
Of Note: NO home 7-1; PHI away 4-4. TOM PHI #25 -6; NO #7 +8. PHI 29ARunO 99ypg; PHI 31APassD 304ypg; NO 32HPassD 298ypg. Defense: 3DC NO 41% #24; PHI 35% #6. RZ NO 63% #23; PHI 44% #1.
Trending since Week 13:
RZ O PHI 44% #17; NO 54% #2
RZ D PHI 39% 6.6yds #10; NO 42% 5.5yds #13
Since Week 13 Pietists starting O-line Armstead, Bushrod, Ramczyk, Peat, Warford have all been knicked and absent one week or another. During that stretch, a loss @ DAL, 1st half difficulty @TB, more @ CAR and home PIT. Excluding the Week 17 starters vacation, the Saints passing game was a pathetic 6.5ypa, 3TD, 4 int, 82.2 rating, #24 in the NFL.
Despite the spate of injuries, said O-line allowed Brees to be sacked only 20 times. All Saint O-line members have been practicing. With two weeks of rest, the patch work O-line problems should be somewhat alleviated and much needed. Only managing 40 sacks, the Eagles rotation of 10 front men, applies fresh legs and constant pressure which knocks QB's off their spot, witness Tom Terrific in last years SB.
The Eagles have had their share of O-line injures, the run game has suffered #30 at 3.9ypc, and QB's have been sacked 40 times. The Saint's bring a strong pass rush with 49 sacks YTD. Since Week 13, Wentz and Ol Saint Nick have the Eagles screaming at 8.0ypa, 14TD, 6 int, 105.2 rating, #3 in the NFL.
Last time out in Week 11, Pietist RB's Kamara and Ingram 174 yds on 29 carries, WR's Smith and Thomas 259 yds on 14 receptions. With the Eagles D completely healthy, present and playing without excuses, they registered 3 tackles for loss, 1 QB hit, 1 sack, 0 TO's. Meanwhile the Saints 7 TFL's, 5 QB hits, 3 sacks, 5TO's, 2 on downs.
When the Fleagles got behind 17-0 before you could say boo, they abandoned the run 12-58yds. NO 4TD drives circa 85 yds, 1 @ 70 yds, with only 10pts on short field drives after TO's on downs, and 546 to 196 total yards. The Pietists tarred n feathered, then rode the Eagles hard and put them away wet, in a 48-7 evisceration.
Don't think the Philly Foles forgot being made to look like a college team as they come in on a 6-1 streak, lone loss in OT @ Jerry World. PHI Pass D #30, Run D #7 in yds and for a good reason, their secondary is pedestrian. With the #21 YPA run D 4.7ypc if a team can run and pass, which the Pietists can, then the Eagles can't do what they did last week, sell out on the pass to defend the run.
In last weeks sell out, Trubisky 303yds, Robinson 143yds, imagine what Brees, Thomas and Co. can do again. Deja Vu? Frankly, were it not for the Bears beating the Norsemen, Parkey Double Doinky and the National Flagball League Zebra's interceding on their behalf with a 7pt gift last week, the Eagles would be like the rest of us, at home watching this game.
The spread opened at -7.5 and has gone as high as -10.5 in some books. Apparently, some are not buying the Ol' Saint Nick magic and dog mask show. Neither are we waxing nostalgic as Trubisky and Nagy are one thing, Brees and Payton are quite another. Of late, Pietists in the Big Easy: 14-2 SU, 5-0 in playoffs, 4-1 vs PHI.
Despite the Philly Foles potential to back door the fattest spread of the week, we have faith. The well rested and healthy Big Easy Pietists will make a statement by creating just enough Week 11 deja vu for their fine feathered guests.
Pick: NO -7.5
Fav H3 R0
Dog H0 R1
Home 3; Road 1
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
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