Market Soapbox
Todays market had little conviction and tepid volume. For an "up" day, the market acted pathetic, advance decline volume was barely to the up side and deteriorated late in the day with negative volume reversals, as a result the market leaked into the close.
The dollar index could take out 85.40, if it does, more upside on the dollar and higher interest rates, more downside on bonds, commodities and stocks. Just when the dollar was about to be counted out, it rallies. There are too many upgrades and buy recommendations coming out from the major houses. The brown shoes are distributing stock to alot of unwary "bargain" hunters. The ducks are quacking, so you feed them.
We have broken through major resistance on the NDX, SP500 and DJIA, the NASDAQ is sitting on its 200 DMA, the DJIA and SP500 are not far above theirs. New Highs and Lows has trended down for the last three weeks, far too many lows and nary a high means the market has no legs left to stand on.
The fact that this market has not bounced on the way down, speaks to its weakness. I firmly believe that if this market is "oversold", that it should attempt to bounce within the next 8 trading days to take advantage of the late month window dressing.
If it does bounce, anyone holding interest rate sensitive, hitech or cyclical issues** should take the oppotunity to exit their long positions. It will be the last chance before we head south to a new low for the year.
If it doesn't bounce, then we are headed down until the end of April, bottoming should occur around DJIA 9900, SP500 1110 and NDX @ 1375. **And yes, hitech should be considered a cyclical at this point, their heady days are long gone and Sillycon Valley is headed the way of Detroit!!
The dollar index could take out 85.40, if it does, more upside on the dollar and higher interest rates, more downside on bonds, commodities and stocks. Just when the dollar was about to be counted out, it rallies. There are too many upgrades and buy recommendations coming out from the major houses. The brown shoes are distributing stock to alot of unwary "bargain" hunters. The ducks are quacking, so you feed them.
We have broken through major resistance on the NDX, SP500 and DJIA, the NASDAQ is sitting on its 200 DMA, the DJIA and SP500 are not far above theirs. New Highs and Lows has trended down for the last three weeks, far too many lows and nary a high means the market has no legs left to stand on.
The fact that this market has not bounced on the way down, speaks to its weakness. I firmly believe that if this market is "oversold", that it should attempt to bounce within the next 8 trading days to take advantage of the late month window dressing.
If it does bounce, anyone holding interest rate sensitive, hitech or cyclical issues** should take the oppotunity to exit their long positions. It will be the last chance before we head south to a new low for the year.
If it doesn't bounce, then we are headed down until the end of April, bottoming should occur around DJIA 9900, SP500 1110 and NDX @ 1375. **And yes, hitech should be considered a cyclical at this point, their heady days are long gone and Sillycon Valley is headed the way of Detroit!!
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