Market Soapbox 04/20/05

DJIA -115 10012;SP500 -15 1138; Nasdaq -19 1913; NDX -14 1407
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: internet (by a thread)
Negative: everything including paper and aluminum
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.0750 106.8050 ; vs Euro: -0.0028 1.3092
Bonds: 10-yr note +04 ticks yielding -.016 4.19%
Gold: XAU -0.91%; $436.40 -0.30 CRB: 306.99 +2.96
Oil: XOI -1.75%, Cushing Crude $52.44; +$0.15; +0.29%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 28/99; Nasdaq 29/131; Amex 15/34
A/D Volume: NYSE 1/6, Nasdaq 1/2, Amex 1/10
Volume: NYSE 2.17B, Nasdaq 2.0B

Upcoming Notable reports.
THU: Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed, MSupply

Yesterday's ADD spell cast by the media wore off, and even a new Pope could not help the markets. Today, it seems Tommy took a clue from Algernon and grew some brain cells, as investors remembered how to read and what inflation is.

European markets were down. Asian markets were up.
All 10 sectors got pounded. 16 of the 23 S&P companies beat expectations, 3 matched, 3 missed, and the band played on.

Dollar split vs. Yen/Euro, gold down, oil, bonds & commodities up. Contra action: indicators show inflation, bonds up, rates down. Full coverage of the Fed Beige Book and CPI have been posted separately.

Today, the pig in a poke, was poked, and it squealed pretty loud. As expected, the CPI number checked in high, the Beige book reflected growth and rising prices, and the EIA report reported - 1.8 mln barrels crude oil inventories (est +1.4 mln) and - 1.5 mln barrels gasoline inventories (est. -275K). Slurp, slurp, the sound of SUV's.

Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Wednesday that prices in a $40-$50 range are reasonable. "I believe there is no shortage of supply. The world will not face another shock." Do I hear $42??

Today's Hall of Shame recommendations and upgrades were again from Smith Barney, regarding "attractive" valuations on Dell after a 15% pullback YTD. The analyst left his earning estimates unchanged.

15% down YTD + no earnings upside + consumer spending down = BUY, this is a sterling example of the "new" math these Hoople Headed Wall Street MBA Whores use to screw the unsuspecting public.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc, to which Smith Barney belongs, has received compensation for investment banking services from Dell in the past 12 months.

Yesterday's deceptive core number (sans food & energy) is still being called "encouraging" by the media. And today's CPI number is being called a "better gauge of underlying inflation". Wrong again Bozo.

These mental midgets can't even get the facts straight. The PPI is the underlying layer at the producer level, the CPI is top of the food chain, at the consumer level. Judas H. Preist!

Today's market action was horrible. The DJIA and NDX became inebriated during yesterdays party. They appeared to be headed back to cover up their gap downs on the morning of 4/15, DJIA 10275, NDX 1440 and fell down on the way.

Last night, the after hours volume on the NDX was 61 Million, thats hefty for the NDX, NYSE 62M. Today, halfway through, NDX is 49M and NYSE is already 60M. Me thinks, we either see a big up or down day tomorrow, and it will be WITH AUTHORITY.

This is the second "head fake" rally in two weeks, last weeks got squashed like a Palmetto bug. My thumbs are pointing down for the near term. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

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