Market Soapbox 04/22/05
DJIA-61 10158;SP500-8 1152;Nasdaq-30 1932;NDX-26 1421
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: energy, utility
Negative: everything else
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.8950 106.0600 ; vs Euro: -0.0018 1.3065
Bonds: 10-yr note +11 ticks yielding -.044 4.25%
Gold: XAU -0.69%; $436.50 +0.90 CRB: 307.29 +0.58
Oil: XOI +0.46%, Cushing Crude $54.39; +$2.04; +3.09%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 43/87; Nasdaq 48/136; Amex 17/29
A/D Volume: NYSE 1/2, Nasdaq 1/4, Amex 1/4
Volume: NYSE 1.94B, Nasdaq 1.79B
Upcoming Notable reports:
MON: Existing Home Sales
TUE: New Home Sales
WEN: Durable Goods, EIA
THU: GDP, Jobless
FRI: Personal Income
European & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.56%) were up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, gold, oil, bonds & commodities up. Contra action: None
Yesterday, the pig who was poked, was helped by a Pope, to break out of his poke. Today, no analysts came to put lipstick on him, so the pig just sat and moped.
8 of 10 sectors down. 3 of 8 S&P companies beat forecasts. Costco Wholesale warned that Q3 and Q4 earnings will miss analysts' estimates. Surprise, surprise.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to Ebay: reported earnings excluding items + 25% YOY, two cents ahead of the est. Revenues were assisted by acquisitions and currency gains.
What Ebay neglected to say: Qtr over Qtr EPS growth Q104 36%, Q204 -7% Q304 0% Q404 7%. Talk about decelerating earnings growth. Yesterday -2%, Today -4.75% Bravo to the investors for sniffing out this unsavory truffle.
The market fell off its leg in the last 90 minutes on high volume, bouncing just before the close. Internals and action did not confirm yesterdays rocket booster ride.
The violent whipsawing typifies a market getting ready to take a major drop. Although a case can be made for the end of consolidation at this point. Some dates to look up: 09/17/01; 4/14/00; 3/7/00; 10/19/87; 10/28 & 10/29/29
Just look at charts of 29, 87 & 00 on the DJIA and notice multiple tops followed by large up down swing days; just after the peaks were achieved, and then on the painful ride down.
Anyone who has not gotten defensive and sold into the bounce this week, you might get a few days next week to do so. Then again, if you were asleep at the wheel this long, what's another 20%??
We will see in the next 10 trading days were this market is headed. The violent moves have to be with conviction and follow through. We are not seeing that. The downtrend remains intact. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: energy, utility
Negative: everything else
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.8950 106.0600 ; vs Euro: -0.0018 1.3065
Bonds: 10-yr note +11 ticks yielding -.044 4.25%
Gold: XAU -0.69%; $436.50 +0.90 CRB: 307.29 +0.58
Oil: XOI +0.46%, Cushing Crude $54.39; +$2.04; +3.09%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 43/87; Nasdaq 48/136; Amex 17/29
A/D Volume: NYSE 1/2, Nasdaq 1/4, Amex 1/4
Volume: NYSE 1.94B, Nasdaq 1.79B
Upcoming Notable reports:
MON: Existing Home Sales
TUE: New Home Sales
WEN: Durable Goods, EIA
THU: GDP, Jobless
FRI: Personal Income
European & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +0.56%) were up. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, gold, oil, bonds & commodities up. Contra action: None
Yesterday, the pig who was poked, was helped by a Pope, to break out of his poke. Today, no analysts came to put lipstick on him, so the pig just sat and moped.
8 of 10 sectors down. 3 of 8 S&P companies beat forecasts. Costco Wholesale warned that Q3 and Q4 earnings will miss analysts' estimates. Surprise, surprise.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to Ebay: reported earnings excluding items + 25% YOY, two cents ahead of the est. Revenues were assisted by acquisitions and currency gains.
What Ebay neglected to say: Qtr over Qtr EPS growth Q104 36%, Q204 -7% Q304 0% Q404 7%. Talk about decelerating earnings growth. Yesterday -2%, Today -4.75% Bravo to the investors for sniffing out this unsavory truffle.
The market fell off its leg in the last 90 minutes on high volume, bouncing just before the close. Internals and action did not confirm yesterdays rocket booster ride.
The violent whipsawing typifies a market getting ready to take a major drop. Although a case can be made for the end of consolidation at this point. Some dates to look up: 09/17/01; 4/14/00; 3/7/00; 10/19/87; 10/28 & 10/29/29
Just look at charts of 29, 87 & 00 on the DJIA and notice multiple tops followed by large up down swing days; just after the peaks were achieved, and then on the painful ride down.
Anyone who has not gotten defensive and sold into the bounce this week, you might get a few days next week to do so. Then again, if you were asleep at the wheel this long, what's another 20%??
We will see in the next 10 trading days were this market is headed. The violent moves have to be with conviction and follow through. We are not seeing that. The downtrend remains intact. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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