Web The Nattering Naybob Chronicles

Thursday, April 21, 2005

Market Soapbox 04/21/05

DJIA+206 10219;SP500+22 1160;Nasdaq+49 1962;NDX+40 1447
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Everything
Negative: Bonds & Gold
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.0700 106.9450 ; vs Euro: +0.0032 1.3054
Bonds: 10-yr note -27 ticks yielding +.111 4.30%
Gold: XAU -1.09%; $433.70 -0.70 CRB: 306.71 -0.28
Oil: XOI +2.33%, Cushing Crude $52.35; -$0.09; -0.17%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 39/40; Nasdaq 38/63; Amex 15/19
A/D Volume: NYSE 5/1, Nasdaq 6.5/1, Amex 10/1
Volume: NYSE 2.26B, Nasdaq 1.95B

Upcoming Notable reports:
MON: Existing Home Sales
TUE: New Home Sales
WEN: Durable Goods, EIA
THU: GDP, Jobless
FRI: Personal Income

Jobless claims -34K @ 296K (est 329K) a 10 week low and the largest weekly decline in jobless claims since Dec. 2001.

Mar. leading indicators (est -0.3%) - 0.4%, the 7th decline in 10 months. This is a lagging indicator which can give false reads on economic momentum.

April Philly Fed Index +13.9 (est +0.5) @ 25.3 (March 11.4). New orders @ 20.3 from 13.2, shipments @ 29.4 from 14.7. Prices paid and prices received both accelerated along with manufacturing growth in the Philadelphia sector.

European & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.94%) were split. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, gold, oil, bonds & commodities down. Contra action: indicators show economic inflation is coming, earnings are deaccerating from 23% to 10%, yet stocks went up.

Yesterday, the pig was poked, and it squealed pretty loud, even a new Pope could not help the markets. Today the Pope got a new email address and the pig broke out of its poke, WITH AUTHORITY.

The DJIA +150pts 1st time since 12/01/04, +2% 1st time since 10/01/04, best day since 04/2003. DJTA up +3% 1st time since 07/08/03, Nasdaq +2.3%, 1st time since 12/01/04.

All 10 sectors surged. 28 of 42 S&P companies beat forecasts. MBNA -94% in Q1 profits, warned FY05 EPS will be "significantly below" its 10% growth target. Sally Mae -$0.02 off est. -23% decline in Q1 profits, a harbinger of FNMA & FHLMC, if they ever report again.

Today's insane and idiotic award goes to Airline investors: Delta Air $1Billion Q1 loss, 384M Q4 loss, EPS loss 2X from Q4, $8.5 Billion loss since 2001, stock +3.3%. Northwest Air EPS -$5.07, -$0.64 miss on est EPS. secured debt rating downgraded at S&P, at a 52 week low, stock +11.0%. Jetblue Air income -54%, operating margin -30%, stock +6.6%. Such bargains, oi!

The Philly Fed report gave the markets an unexpected brotherly "shove". The SP500 @ 1162, DJIA @ 10279 & NDX 1441 appear to be headed back to cover up their gap downs on the morning of 4/15. The NDX covered up his today.

Last night, the after hours volume on the NDX was 60 Million, NYSE 69M. Today, with 1hr left, NDX 39M and NYSE 65M. Me thinks, another big day coming. After hours volumes.

35 years ago this week, the movie Marooned went from being science fiction to science fact as Apollo 13 made its miraculous return to Earth...

YTD daily point swings compared to 03 & 04, have been small, in the extreme. Since 04/13 the point swing volatility has gone off the richter scale.

The market is whipsawing up on average volume, down on higher volume. The afterburners are being spent in a last ditch effort to achieve favorable trajectory. We believe that one of two things will happen.

1) If successful, the market has a triumphant reentry like Apollo 13. We have bottomed, consolidation is over and its time to make like the Jefferson's, and be headin on up to the eastside.

2) If this maneuver fails, gravity will pull the market down to burn and disintegrate upon reentry much like the Space Shuttle Columbia.

We are giving this market the Missourian Dirty Harry test, i.e. just show me and go ahead make my day. We could gap up tommorrow and fill the gaps, SP500@1161.7 & DJIA@10278.75, then who knows. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.


Post a Comment

<< Home