Market Soapbox 12/19/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, NAHB home builders index checked in at 57 vs est. 61 vs prior 60, the lowest in nearly 3 years. Is this a harbinger of tomorrows housing data??
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
13 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 12 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 11 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 10 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 9 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
8 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 7 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 6 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 5 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Last week DJIA a deceiving +99 as mid, small, tech, semis, energy & precious metals pulled back.
Today, a broadbased "biotch" slapping with AUTHORITY, DJIA -39 on grisly internals. This week DJIA -39. over the last 13 weeks DJIA +134. All indices down, RUT, MID, NDX, SOX & XOI pounded down. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro & down vs. Yen , XAU down & gold up, XOI & crude down -1.4% @ 57.30, CRB commodities down. Contra trend: none.
Low end yield curve inversion, Bonds flat with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.44% & the 30 year @ 4.64. The 2 & 5 year @ -1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 8 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Sectors: Pharma up BIG on Pfizers +11% afterhours Friday & +8% today. Airlines, Biotech, Transports, Utilities, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Tech, Commodity, REIT's, Homebuilders, Semis & Banking pounded down senseless.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 20 Building permits, Housing starts, PPI & Core PPI; Dec 21 Chain deflator, GDP, EIA Crude; Dec 22 Initial claims, Personal income & spending, Leading indicators; Dec 23 Durable orders, Mich sentiment, New home sales.
From Friday: "oil futures & the energy sector pulled back which kept the market down... this weeks DJIA & SP500 "up trend" is deceiving. The mid & small caps along with the legs under the Santa Claus rally; tech, precious metals and the energy sector are all consolidating." Today, a redux. We noted Sunday that Friday aftermarket volume was up BIGTIME and this usually precursors a big move to the downside, today confirmed that.
From last week: "We are witnessing a perplexing oscillation... a choppy topping pattern that has formed as a result... beware of another shoulder forming off the top. Where there's smoke, there is usually fire and the scent of elephant's attempting to tread lightly as they unwind their positions prior to year end is in the air."
They may have started a stampede today as key short term 30 DMA technical levels were breached to the downside. If we don't see some recovery days, we may have just formed the other shoulder prior to New Year and we all know whats next.
Tomorrows PPI & housing data will be mixed. Quite frankly, we have seen 3 straight down days on the broader markets leaving tomorrow to the "buy on the dip" types hoping for one more pop up before New Years, if we see more erosion, time to get the Bermuda shorts on.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, NAHB home builders index checked in at 57 vs est. 61 vs prior 60, the lowest in nearly 3 years. Is this a harbinger of tomorrows housing data??
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
13 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 12 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 11 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 10 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 9 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
8 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 7 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 6 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 5 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Last week DJIA a deceiving +99 as mid, small, tech, semis, energy & precious metals pulled back.
Today, a broadbased "biotch" slapping with AUTHORITY, DJIA -39 on grisly internals. This week DJIA -39. over the last 13 weeks DJIA +134. All indices down, RUT, MID, NDX, SOX & XOI pounded down. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up vs. Euro & down vs. Yen , XAU down & gold up, XOI & crude down -1.4% @ 57.30, CRB commodities down. Contra trend: none.
Low end yield curve inversion, Bonds flat with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.44% & the 30 year @ 4.64. The 2 & 5 year @ -1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 8 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 20 basis points.
Sectors: Pharma up BIG on Pfizers +11% afterhours Friday & +8% today. Airlines, Biotech, Transports, Utilities, Natural Gas, Oil, Oil Services, Energy, Tech, Commodity, REIT's, Homebuilders, Semis & Banking pounded down senseless.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 20 Building permits, Housing starts, PPI & Core PPI; Dec 21 Chain deflator, GDP, EIA Crude; Dec 22 Initial claims, Personal income & spending, Leading indicators; Dec 23 Durable orders, Mich sentiment, New home sales.
From Friday: "oil futures & the energy sector pulled back which kept the market down... this weeks DJIA & SP500 "up trend" is deceiving. The mid & small caps along with the legs under the Santa Claus rally; tech, precious metals and the energy sector are all consolidating." Today, a redux. We noted Sunday that Friday aftermarket volume was up BIGTIME and this usually precursors a big move to the downside, today confirmed that.
From last week: "We are witnessing a perplexing oscillation... a choppy topping pattern that has formed as a result... beware of another shoulder forming off the top. Where there's smoke, there is usually fire and the scent of elephant's attempting to tread lightly as they unwind their positions prior to year end is in the air."
They may have started a stampede today as key short term 30 DMA technical levels were breached to the downside. If we don't see some recovery days, we may have just formed the other shoulder prior to New Year and we all know whats next.
Tomorrows PPI & housing data will be mixed. Quite frankly, we have seen 3 straight down days on the broader markets leaving tomorrow to the "buy on the dip" types hoping for one more pop up before New Years, if we see more erosion, time to get the Bermuda shorts on.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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