Market Soapbox 12/21/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Richmond Fed Head Lacker commented today "Any energy price pass-through to core inflation that is more than marginal and transitory would be unwelcome" and "it is too soon to declare that pass-through risk (to an acceleration in core inflation) is entirely behind us."
Lacker also expects housing price appreciation to flatten in 2006. Aggregate residential investment, he added, will "likely stop growing or may even decline". In contrast to yesterdays housing data, U.S. mortgage applications fell to an 11-month low last week,
Yesterday, the Nikkei 225 up 2% hitting a new five year high. GM stock down 5% to new 18 year lows, this month Tracinda (Kirk Kerkorian) has sold 20% of their stake in GM.
Chain deflator at +3.3% vs est. +3% vs prior +3%; Q3 GDP at 4.1% vs est. 4.3% vs Q2 3.3%. Showing the strongest GDP gain in 18 months and the 10th straight quarter greater than 3% and growing inflation.
The EIA weekly inventory crude oil +1.3M barrels; gasoline -300K; distillates -2.8M. Showing a surprise build in crude, minimal draw on gasoline and distinct drop in distillates.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
13 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 12 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 11 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 10 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 9 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
8 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 7 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 6 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 5 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Last week DJIA a deceiving +99 as mid, small, tech, semis, energy & precious metals pulled back.
Mon, a broadbased consolidation, DJIA -39 on grisly internals. Tues, DJIA -31, MID & RUT resisting, on ugly internals. Today, a thinly traded day on improved internals, DJIA +95 early, then dropping to +28 by the close. This week DJIA -42. over the last 13 weeks DJIA +131.
DJUA & SOX beat down. DJTA, XOI, XAU & RUT popping up. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up MONSTER BIG (3 straight days) vs. Euro 1.19 & Yen 115.99, XAU up & gold down @ 493, XOI & crude up @ 57.98, CRB commodities up.
Low end inversion as bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.48% & the 30 year @ 4.67. The 2 & 5 year @ -1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Sectors: Airlines, Disk Drive + 7%!! Gold Bugs, Biotech, Energy, Oil Services, Oil, Transports, Commodity, Cyclical, Retail, REIT's & Healthcare up nicely. Broker, Utilities, Natural Gas!! & Semis beat down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 22 Initial claims, Personal income & spending, Leading indicators; Dec 23 Durable orders, Mich sentiment, New home sales.
Estimates for tomorrows core PCE +1.4% vs est +1.2%. A confirmation could further spook the market with inflation fears. Early today, utilities were doing well, then a WWF slapdown after the economic data fanned inflation fears.
In 10/20 Market Soapbox we called for crude oil at $52 a barrel, yesterday we found out that T. Boone Pickens is projecting $50-$54, we are standing on our prediction.
From yesterday: "It might not be a bad idea to get those Bermuda shorts on, as near term, the upside potential is very small compared to the downside potential."
From 12/08 Market Soapbox: "For clues to direction, we are observing the NDX trading range of 1665 to 1745 and the XAU & XOI divergence from the overall market direction."
Monday whipsaw DOWN, today whipsaw UP bouncing off 10900, then a pullback into the close. On Monday, the NDX violated 1665 on higher volume, todays low was 1665 and we are now back above that line.
Close observation of the next few trading days is required. We have our feet inside our shorts and are getting ready to pull them up and on. However, we cannot preclude one last pop to the upside prior to year end.
If we do go up, the NDX probably won't go past 1745, just watch the 1665 support level CLOSELY. Also, 1275 on the SP500 needs to be breeched to the upside for confirmation.
Looking at an OHLC chart, the recent RUT camelhump pattern is distinct and symmetrical. Today, the RUT reincarnated 11/28 on the flipside. Rolling back two days from 11/28 you can see what may be awaiting us going down the newly formed shoulder.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead.
In other news, Richmond Fed Head Lacker commented today "Any energy price pass-through to core inflation that is more than marginal and transitory would be unwelcome" and "it is too soon to declare that pass-through risk (to an acceleration in core inflation) is entirely behind us."
Lacker also expects housing price appreciation to flatten in 2006. Aggregate residential investment, he added, will "likely stop growing or may even decline". In contrast to yesterdays housing data, U.S. mortgage applications fell to an 11-month low last week,
Yesterday, the Nikkei 225 up 2% hitting a new five year high. GM stock down 5% to new 18 year lows, this month Tracinda (Kirk Kerkorian) has sold 20% of their stake in GM.
Chain deflator at +3.3% vs est. +3% vs prior +3%; Q3 GDP at 4.1% vs est. 4.3% vs Q2 3.3%. Showing the strongest GDP gain in 18 months and the 10th straight quarter greater than 3% and growing inflation.
The EIA weekly inventory crude oil +1.3M barrels; gasoline -300K; distillates -2.8M. Showing a surprise build in crude, minimal draw on gasoline and distinct drop in distillates.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
13 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 12 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 11 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 10 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 9 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
8 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 7 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 6 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 5 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Last week DJIA a deceiving +99 as mid, small, tech, semis, energy & precious metals pulled back.
Mon, a broadbased consolidation, DJIA -39 on grisly internals. Tues, DJIA -31, MID & RUT resisting, on ugly internals. Today, a thinly traded day on improved internals, DJIA +95 early, then dropping to +28 by the close. This week DJIA -42. over the last 13 weeks DJIA +131.
DJUA & SOX beat down. DJTA, XOI, XAU & RUT popping up. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up MONSTER BIG (3 straight days) vs. Euro 1.19 & Yen 115.99, XAU up & gold down @ 493, XOI & crude up @ 57.98, CRB commodities up.
Low end inversion as bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.48% & the 30 year @ 4.67. The 2 & 5 year @ -1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Sectors: Airlines, Disk Drive + 7%!! Gold Bugs, Biotech, Energy, Oil Services, Oil, Transports, Commodity, Cyclical, Retail, REIT's & Healthcare up nicely. Broker, Utilities, Natural Gas!! & Semis beat down.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 22 Initial claims, Personal income & spending, Leading indicators; Dec 23 Durable orders, Mich sentiment, New home sales.
Estimates for tomorrows core PCE +1.4% vs est +1.2%. A confirmation could further spook the market with inflation fears. Early today, utilities were doing well, then a WWF slapdown after the economic data fanned inflation fears.
In 10/20 Market Soapbox we called for crude oil at $52 a barrel, yesterday we found out that T. Boone Pickens is projecting $50-$54, we are standing on our prediction.
From yesterday: "It might not be a bad idea to get those Bermuda shorts on, as near term, the upside potential is very small compared to the downside potential."
From 12/08 Market Soapbox: "For clues to direction, we are observing the NDX trading range of 1665 to 1745 and the XAU & XOI divergence from the overall market direction."
Monday whipsaw DOWN, today whipsaw UP bouncing off 10900, then a pullback into the close. On Monday, the NDX violated 1665 on higher volume, todays low was 1665 and we are now back above that line.
Close observation of the next few trading days is required. We have our feet inside our shorts and are getting ready to pull them up and on. However, we cannot preclude one last pop to the upside prior to year end.
If we do go up, the NDX probably won't go past 1745, just watch the 1665 support level CLOSELY. Also, 1275 on the SP500 needs to be breeched to the upside for confirmation.
Looking at an OHLC chart, the recent RUT camelhump pattern is distinct and symmetrical. Today, the RUT reincarnated 11/28 on the flipside. Rolling back two days from 11/28 you can see what may be awaiting us going down the newly formed shoulder.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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