Market Soapbox 12/20/05
Resistance: DJIA 11000; SP500 1300; Nasdaq 2300; NDX 1750
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, GM stock down 5% to new 18 year lows.
Nov. housing starts rebounded +5.3% 2123K vs est. 2030K vs prior 2017K and Nov. building permits +2.5% 2155K vs est. 2090K vs prior 2103K. showing the new home market inventory is still increasing.
U.S. wholesale prices fell in November by the sharpest amount in 2.5 years, as energy prices declined for the first time in six months. Economists have been watching the producer price index for ripple effects from this year's spike in energy prices. PPI -0.7% vs est. -0.5% vs prior +0.7%
But excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI +0.1% vs est +0.2% vs prior -0.3%. In the 12 months ended in November, overall wholesale prices climbed 4.4% on an unadjusted basis, down from a 5.9% YOY climb in October.
The latest PPI report showed some fallback for prices in the production pipeline. Raw materials prices -1.2% their first decline since June vs. prior +6.7%. Partially processed goods -1.2% their sharpest decline since April 2003 vs prior +3.0%.
Prices for finished goods in the energy sector -4.0% vs prior +4.1%. Gasoline -10.7%, its sharpest drop since May 2003. Residential natural gas -0.5%, the biggest drop since June; while home heating oil prices -15.5%, the sharpest decline since April 2003. However, residential electric power prices +2.3%.
Food prices +0.5% vs prior -0.1% . Citrus fruit prices +35.2%, their sharpest rise since January 1999. Fresh eggs prices +13.4%, and fresh and dry vegetables +7.2%. Prices of passenger cars -0.8% vs prior -3.0%. Light motor trucks, which include sport utility vehicles, -0.8%, while heavy motor trucks +0.2%. Prices for pharmaceutical preparations +1.6%.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
13 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 12 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 11 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 10 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 9 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
8 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 7 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 6 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 5 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Last week DJIA a deceiving +99 as mid, small, tech, semis, energy & precious metals pulled back.
Mon, a broadbased "biotch" slapping with AUTHORITY, DJIA -39 on grisly internals. Today, DJIA -31 on ugly internals. This week DJIA -70. over the last 13 weeks DJIA +103.
DJUA, NDX, RUT, MID, SOX & XOI barely up. SP500, DJTA & XAU down. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up BIG vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold down BIG @ 495, XOI & crude up @ 57.98, CRB commodities down.
Low end yield curve inversion, Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.46% & the 30 year @ 4.65. The 2 & 5 year @ -1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Networking, Airlines, Pharma, Tech & Telecom down. Biotech, Energy, Oil Services, Natural Gas, Oil, Brokers, Healtcare & Semis up.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 21 Chain deflator, GDP, EIA Crude; Dec 22 Initial claims, Personal income & spending, Leading indicators; Dec 23 Durable orders, Mich sentiment, New home sales.
From Friday: "oil futures & the energy sector pulled back which kept the market down... this weeks DJIA & SP500 "up trend" is deceiving. The mid & small caps along with the legs under the Santa Claus rally; tech, precious metals and the energy sector are all consolidating."
From yesterday: "we have seen 3 straight down days on the broader markets leaving tomorrow to the "buy on the dip" types hoping for one more pop up before New Years, if we see more erosion, time to get the Bermuda shorts on."
Gold after hitting 545 last week is now at 497, seems alot of people are taking profits after the big run up on short covering. And yes, it was short covering as there were MASSIVE short positions on gold prior to options expiration last Friday.
Today, some buying on the dip boosting mid & small cap and semis, short covering in oil options (expiration for January today) caused a 1% pop in crude futures, boosting the energy sector.
We expect oil to pull back and head for our target of $52, its not just our target either, T. Boone Pickens sez $50-$53, we like the company. If this occurs, the broader market should pull back as well, as a meaningful decoupling of oil futures, energy sector and market has yet to occur.
Despite the "buying on the dip", technically the fourth straight down day for the broader market, the longest losing streak since October. It might not be a bad idea to get those Bermuda shorts on, as near term, the upside potential is very small compared to the downside potential.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, GM stock down 5% to new 18 year lows.
Nov. housing starts rebounded +5.3% 2123K vs est. 2030K vs prior 2017K and Nov. building permits +2.5% 2155K vs est. 2090K vs prior 2103K. showing the new home market inventory is still increasing.
U.S. wholesale prices fell in November by the sharpest amount in 2.5 years, as energy prices declined for the first time in six months. Economists have been watching the producer price index for ripple effects from this year's spike in energy prices. PPI -0.7% vs est. -0.5% vs prior +0.7%
But excluding food and energy costs, the core PPI +0.1% vs est +0.2% vs prior -0.3%. In the 12 months ended in November, overall wholesale prices climbed 4.4% on an unadjusted basis, down from a 5.9% YOY climb in October.
The latest PPI report showed some fallback for prices in the production pipeline. Raw materials prices -1.2% their first decline since June vs. prior +6.7%. Partially processed goods -1.2% their sharpest decline since April 2003 vs prior +3.0%.
Prices for finished goods in the energy sector -4.0% vs prior +4.1%. Gasoline -10.7%, its sharpest drop since May 2003. Residential natural gas -0.5%, the biggest drop since June; while home heating oil prices -15.5%, the sharpest decline since April 2003. However, residential electric power prices +2.3%.
Food prices +0.5% vs prior -0.1% . Citrus fruit prices +35.2%, their sharpest rise since January 1999. Fresh eggs prices +13.4%, and fresh and dry vegetables +7.2%. Prices of passenger cars -0.8% vs prior -3.0%. Light motor trucks, which include sport utility vehicles, -0.8%, while heavy motor trucks +0.2%. Prices for pharmaceutical preparations +1.6%.
Todays SOOHEY, PIG, PIG!! award goes to me for letting the pig have a quiet day in its poke.
13 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 12 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 11 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 10 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 9 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
8 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 7 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 6 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 5 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 4 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
3 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 2 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. Last week DJIA a deceiving +99 as mid, small, tech, semis, energy & precious metals pulled back.
Mon, a broadbased "biotch" slapping with AUTHORITY, DJIA -39 on grisly internals. Today, DJIA -31 on ugly internals. This week DJIA -70. over the last 13 weeks DJIA +103.
DJUA, NDX, RUT, MID, SOX & XOI barely up. SP500, DJTA & XAU down. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Dollar up BIG vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold down BIG @ 495, XOI & crude up @ 57.98, CRB commodities down.
Low end yield curve inversion, Bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.46% & the 30 year @ 4.65. The 2 & 5 year @ -1 basis points; the 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 basis points; the 10 & 30 gap @ 19 basis points.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Networking, Airlines, Pharma, Tech & Telecom down. Biotech, Energy, Oil Services, Natural Gas, Oil, Brokers, Healtcare & Semis up.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Dec 21 Chain deflator, GDP, EIA Crude; Dec 22 Initial claims, Personal income & spending, Leading indicators; Dec 23 Durable orders, Mich sentiment, New home sales.
From Friday: "oil futures & the energy sector pulled back which kept the market down... this weeks DJIA & SP500 "up trend" is deceiving. The mid & small caps along with the legs under the Santa Claus rally; tech, precious metals and the energy sector are all consolidating."
From yesterday: "we have seen 3 straight down days on the broader markets leaving tomorrow to the "buy on the dip" types hoping for one more pop up before New Years, if we see more erosion, time to get the Bermuda shorts on."
Gold after hitting 545 last week is now at 497, seems alot of people are taking profits after the big run up on short covering. And yes, it was short covering as there were MASSIVE short positions on gold prior to options expiration last Friday.
Today, some buying on the dip boosting mid & small cap and semis, short covering in oil options (expiration for January today) caused a 1% pop in crude futures, boosting the energy sector.
We expect oil to pull back and head for our target of $52, its not just our target either, T. Boone Pickens sez $50-$53, we like the company. If this occurs, the broader market should pull back as well, as a meaningful decoupling of oil futures, energy sector and market has yet to occur.
Despite the "buying on the dip", technically the fourth straight down day for the broader market, the longest losing streak since October. It might not be a bad idea to get those Bermuda shorts on, as near term, the upside potential is very small compared to the downside potential.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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