Market Soapbox 01/11/06
Resistance: DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1755
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, yesterday Alcoa warned with downside guidance, AA punished 3%. Today, DuPont chimed in by warning on Q4 profit guidance, DD punished 3%. Is anyone else listening??
Moody's cut the debt of Ford Motor Co., the number two U.S. carmaker, deeper into junk territory. Moody's also cut its ratings on Ford's finance arm, Ford Motor Credit, to junk status from investment grade.
EIA crude supply -2.9M barrels vs est. -550K, gasoline +4.5M vs. est +1.7M, distillates supply +4.9M vs est. +2.2M. Showing builds in gasoline and distillates, but a draw down on crude. However, at 318M barrels, the crude inventory remains well above the upper average for this time of year.
16 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 15 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 14 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 13 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 12 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
11 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 10 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 8 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 5 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 4 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 3 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 2 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
Last week DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Mon DJIA +53 with nice followthrough. Tues, 5 day rally pauses, DJIA flat. Today, DJIA +30 on equal volume with decent internals. This week DJIA +83, over the last 16 weeks +338.
SOX, NDX & XOI up BIG. DJTA, DJUA, XAU & RUT down. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Tech, Semis, Oil, Securities Brokers up nicely. Airlines, Biotech, Tobacco, Utilities, Transports & Cyclical down.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.21 & down vs. Yen 113.5, XAU & gold up @ 550, XOI & crude up BIG @ 64, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.45% & the 30 year @ 4.63. 6 month & 10 year gap 1 bp; 6 month & 2 year gap -2 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -3 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 3 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 18 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 12 Export Prices ex ag, Import Prices ex oil, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, Treausury Budget; Jan 13 Business Inventories, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex auto..
FYI, Tomorrow $9B in 10 year TIPS get auctioned, this month over $100 Billion of U.S. debt will be auctioned off. Jan - Mar over $170B in debt will be auctioned including $14B in NEW 30 year bonds.
The 5 year note auction drew a high yield of 4.370%. The auction drew bids of 2.10 times per dollar of debt on offer, below the 2.64 average for the past six five-year auctions and the lowest since April. Indirect bidders, which includes foreign central banks, bought 28.3% of the notes on offer vs. 44% last month and against an average of 37.2% at the previous six auctions.
From yesterday: "Tomorrows & Thurs auctions will drain liquidity from the market. Add in an EIA crude build, pulling crude and energy down, which could cause a mini consolidation or pullback."
Crude supplies drew down pushing futures up 1%, lifting the energy sector, combined with semis, this offset the pull down on small and mid caps, keeping the market buoyed and pointed upward.
The NDX shattered 1755; the SP500 stopped short of 1295, the DJIA and NAZ are sitting on resistance. Even with options unwind and perhaps a minor pullback day here or there, this rally looks like it continues onward and upward perhaps until reporting season begins.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, yesterday Alcoa warned with downside guidance, AA punished 3%. Today, DuPont chimed in by warning on Q4 profit guidance, DD punished 3%. Is anyone else listening??
Moody's cut the debt of Ford Motor Co., the number two U.S. carmaker, deeper into junk territory. Moody's also cut its ratings on Ford's finance arm, Ford Motor Credit, to junk status from investment grade.
EIA crude supply -2.9M barrels vs est. -550K, gasoline +4.5M vs. est +1.7M, distillates supply +4.9M vs est. +2.2M. Showing builds in gasoline and distillates, but a draw down on crude. However, at 318M barrels, the crude inventory remains well above the upper average for this time of year.
16 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 15 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 14 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 13 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 12 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
11 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 10 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 8 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 5 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 4 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 3 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 2 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
Last week DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Mon DJIA +53 with nice followthrough. Tues, 5 day rally pauses, DJIA flat. Today, DJIA +30 on equal volume with decent internals. This week DJIA +83, over the last 16 weeks +338.
SOX, NDX & XOI up BIG. DJTA, DJUA, XAU & RUT down. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up BIG.
Sectors: Gold Bugs, Tech, Semis, Oil, Securities Brokers up nicely. Airlines, Biotech, Tobacco, Utilities, Transports & Cyclical down.
Dollar up vs. Euro 1.21 & down vs. Yen 113.5, XAU & gold up @ 550, XOI & crude up BIG @ 64, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down with the 10 year yield rising @ 4.45% & the 30 year @ 4.63. 6 month & 10 year gap 1 bp; 6 month & 2 year gap -2 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -3 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 3 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 18 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 12 Export Prices ex ag, Import Prices ex oil, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, Treausury Budget; Jan 13 Business Inventories, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex auto..
FYI, Tomorrow $9B in 10 year TIPS get auctioned, this month over $100 Billion of U.S. debt will be auctioned off. Jan - Mar over $170B in debt will be auctioned including $14B in NEW 30 year bonds.
The 5 year note auction drew a high yield of 4.370%. The auction drew bids of 2.10 times per dollar of debt on offer, below the 2.64 average for the past six five-year auctions and the lowest since April. Indirect bidders, which includes foreign central banks, bought 28.3% of the notes on offer vs. 44% last month and against an average of 37.2% at the previous six auctions.
From yesterday: "Tomorrows & Thurs auctions will drain liquidity from the market. Add in an EIA crude build, pulling crude and energy down, which could cause a mini consolidation or pullback."
Crude supplies drew down pushing futures up 1%, lifting the energy sector, combined with semis, this offset the pull down on small and mid caps, keeping the market buoyed and pointed upward.
The NDX shattered 1755; the SP500 stopped short of 1295, the DJIA and NAZ are sitting on resistance. Even with options unwind and perhaps a minor pullback day here or there, this rally looks like it continues onward and upward perhaps until reporting season begins.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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