Market Soapbox 01/12/06
Resistance: DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1755
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, today's $9B 10yr TIPS auction saw a solid 60.3% indirect bidder participation. The Treasury Budget +11B vs prior -3B for a nice little surplus, this helped the dollar as expected.
After strengthening last year, the dollar has weakened as the U.S. government had been running a de facto weak dollar policy to encourage higher prices for imported goods, both to fight possible deflation and to strengthen the competitiveness of U.S.-made goods.
November Trade Balance at -64.2B vs est. -65.4B vs prior -68.1B seeing a reduction due to lower oil costs in Nov. and record US exports.
Export prices ex-ag +0.1% vs prior -0.9%; Import prices ex-oil 0.0% vs prior -1.8% Inside the numbers: increased export prices and unchanged import prices excluding oil. In the past 12 months, export prices are up 2.7%.
Excluding all fuels import prices increased 0.2%. In the past 12 months, import prices are up 7.9% despite a rising dollar, compared with a 6.7% increase in 2004. Import prices excluding petroleum have risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, down from a 3.7% gain in 2004.
Imported petroleum prices dropped 0.9% in December, the third straight decline. Imported natural gas prices fell 4.7%. Outside of energy, price pressures continued for some raw materials.
Prices of nonfuel industrial supplies continued to climb, rising 0.8% in December. Plastics prices rose 2%. Building-materials prices increased 0.8%. Prices of foods and feeds increased 1.5%.
16 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 15 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 14 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 13 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 12 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
11 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 10 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 8 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 5 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 4 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 3 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 2 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
Last week DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Mon DJIA +53 with nice followthrough. Tues, 5 day rally pauses, DJIA flat. Wen. DJIA +30 on equal volume with decent internals. Today, DJIA -81 on higher volume with lousy internals. This week DJIA +2, over the last 16 weeks +257.
DJUA up. all other indices down. XAU, SOX & DJTA pounded. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Sectors: Utilities & Healthcare up. Airlines, Gold Bugs, Tech, Semis, Biotech, Networking, Tobacco, Cyclical, Transports & Banking all clubbed down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold down, XOI & crude up @ 63.94, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.40% & the 30 year @ 4.58. 2 & 5 year gap @ -4 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 2 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 18 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 13 Business Inventories, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex auto..
From yesterday: "Even with options unwind and perhaps a minor pullback day here or there, this rally looks like it continues onward and upward perhaps until reporting season begins." Reporting season starts Tues, but the heavy volume begins Jan 23rd after options expiration.
Did we hit and close above 1745-1755 on the NDX? Yes. Today a pullback, next week a shortened holiday week, what will Friday the 13th bring? We think some people will take profits rather than hang in over the holiday weekend. But maybe they already have?
Next week we cannot preclude a rebound on short covering until perhaps the 20th or 24th, and take the NDX up to 1795, but after that it looks grim. Tomorrows PPI and retail sales & CPI on the 18th and other potential negative reports could swing the market either way.
Add in lowered forward guidance and disappointing EPS from stock options expensing during reporting season and we could see a consolidation which would give up almost all of this years gains by January 31st. This would follow through into Feb which could be a down month.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, today's $9B 10yr TIPS auction saw a solid 60.3% indirect bidder participation. The Treasury Budget +11B vs prior -3B for a nice little surplus, this helped the dollar as expected.
After strengthening last year, the dollar has weakened as the U.S. government had been running a de facto weak dollar policy to encourage higher prices for imported goods, both to fight possible deflation and to strengthen the competitiveness of U.S.-made goods.
November Trade Balance at -64.2B vs est. -65.4B vs prior -68.1B seeing a reduction due to lower oil costs in Nov. and record US exports.
Export prices ex-ag +0.1% vs prior -0.9%; Import prices ex-oil 0.0% vs prior -1.8% Inside the numbers: increased export prices and unchanged import prices excluding oil. In the past 12 months, export prices are up 2.7%.
Excluding all fuels import prices increased 0.2%. In the past 12 months, import prices are up 7.9% despite a rising dollar, compared with a 6.7% increase in 2004. Import prices excluding petroleum have risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, down from a 3.7% gain in 2004.
Imported petroleum prices dropped 0.9% in December, the third straight decline. Imported natural gas prices fell 4.7%. Outside of energy, price pressures continued for some raw materials.
Prices of nonfuel industrial supplies continued to climb, rising 0.8% in December. Plastics prices rose 2%. Building-materials prices increased 0.8%. Prices of foods and feeds increased 1.5%.
16 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 15 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 14 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 13 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 12 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
11 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 10 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 8 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 5 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 4 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 3 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 2 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
Last week DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Mon DJIA +53 with nice followthrough. Tues, 5 day rally pauses, DJIA flat. Wen. DJIA +30 on equal volume with decent internals. Today, DJIA -81 on higher volume with lousy internals. This week DJIA +2, over the last 16 weeks +257.
DJUA up. all other indices down. XAU, SOX & DJTA pounded. CAC, DAX, FTSE, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Sectors: Utilities & Healthcare up. Airlines, Gold Bugs, Tech, Semis, Biotech, Networking, Tobacco, Cyclical, Transports & Banking all clubbed down.
Dollar up vs. Euro & Yen , XAU & gold down, XOI & crude up @ 63.94, CRB commodities down.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.40% & the 30 year @ 4.58. 2 & 5 year gap @ -4 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 2 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 6 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 18 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 13 Business Inventories, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, Retail Sales ex auto..
From yesterday: "Even with options unwind and perhaps a minor pullback day here or there, this rally looks like it continues onward and upward perhaps until reporting season begins." Reporting season starts Tues, but the heavy volume begins Jan 23rd after options expiration.
Did we hit and close above 1745-1755 on the NDX? Yes. Today a pullback, next week a shortened holiday week, what will Friday the 13th bring? We think some people will take profits rather than hang in over the holiday weekend. But maybe they already have?
Next week we cannot preclude a rebound on short covering until perhaps the 20th or 24th, and take the NDX up to 1795, but after that it looks grim. Tomorrows PPI and retail sales & CPI on the 18th and other potential negative reports could swing the market either way.
Add in lowered forward guidance and disappointing EPS from stock options expensing during reporting season and we could see a consolidation which would give up almost all of this years gains by January 31st. This would follow through into Feb which could be a down month.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Comments