Market Soapbox 01/13/06
Resistance: DJIA 11050; SP500 1295; Nasdaq 2330; NDX 1755
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Core PPI @ +0.1% vs prior +0.1% vs est. +0.1% staying steady.
In the real world with energy costs Total PPI @ +0.9% vs prior -0.7% vs est. +0.3% showing that energy costs are rising throughout the supply chain and will continue to cause stag and inflation.
Retail sales @ +0.7% vs prior +0.8%, inside the number, ex-auto +0.2% vs prior -0.3%, showing some holiday spending. Business Inventories @ +0.5% vs prior +0.4% showing a continuing build.
Tyco chiming in with Alcoa and DuPont, gave downside Q1 and FY06 forward guidance, down 11% on the news. IBM under SEC investigation and AMD -4.5% downgraded to Sell (with over 30% of earnings being eroded by stock options expensing when they report next week, I'd sell too.)
16 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 15 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 14 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 13 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 12 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
11 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 10 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 8 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 5 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 4 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 3 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 2 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
Last week DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Mon DJIA +53 with nice followthrough. Tues, 5 day rally pauses, DJIA flat. Wen. DJIA +30 on equal volume with decent internals. Thur, DJIA -81 on higher volume with lousy internals.
Today, DJIA -2 on lower volume with midlin internals. This week DJIA Flat +0, over the last 16 weeks +255. XOI & XAU up BIG, DJUA up nicely, RUT weak, MID, NDX & DJTA down, SOX pounded down. CAC, DAX, FTSE down BIG, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Sectors: Healthcare, Airlines & Semis pounded down. Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Oil, Tobacco, Utilities & Commodities up nicely.
Dollar down vs. Euro & up vs. Yen , XAU & gold up BIG @ 557, XOI up & crude down @ 63.92, CRB commodities up. Natural Gas pounded down again yesterday -3.2%, today -2.5% today to 8.70.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds up BIG with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.35% & the 30 year @ 4.52. 3 mo & 5 year gap @ -4 bp; 6 mo & 2 year gap @ -9 bp; 6 mo & 5 year gap @ -14 bp; 6 mo & 10 year gap @ -7 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -5 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 2 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 17 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 17 Empire State, Capacity Utilization; Industrial Production; Jan 18 CPI, Core CPI, Net Foreign Purchases, Crude Inventory; Fed Beige Book; Jan 19 Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From yesterday: "Next week we cannot preclude a rebound on short covering until perhaps the 20th or 24th, but after that it looks grim... add in lowered forward guidance and disappointing EPS from stock options expensing during reporting season and we could see a consolidation which would give up almost all of this years gains by January 31st."
The market recovered from yesterdays consolidation or options unwind. We are hovering at 1745 NDX and will watch that number for support and any meaningful breech to the downside, additional support awaits at 1730.
We look for short covering and irrational exhuberance to raise the bar through the 24th, watching 1795 NDX and the RUT at 730 - 740 as an upper limit. If this plays out, then look out below, it will be a long and hard fall.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10700 ; SP500 1240; Nasdaq 2200; NDX 1650
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Core PPI @ +0.1% vs prior +0.1% vs est. +0.1% staying steady.
In the real world with energy costs Total PPI @ +0.9% vs prior -0.7% vs est. +0.3% showing that energy costs are rising throughout the supply chain and will continue to cause stag and inflation.
Retail sales @ +0.7% vs prior +0.8%, inside the number, ex-auto +0.2% vs prior -0.3%, showing some holiday spending. Business Inventories @ +0.5% vs prior +0.4% showing a continuing build.
Tyco chiming in with Alcoa and DuPont, gave downside Q1 and FY06 forward guidance, down 11% on the news. IBM under SEC investigation and AMD -4.5% downgraded to Sell (with over 30% of earnings being eroded by stock options expensing when they report next week, I'd sell too.)
16 weeks ago, DJIA -270 breaking key support. 15 weeks ago, DJIA +148, lacking conviction. 14 weeks ago, DJIA -281 crashing down. 13 weeks ago, large swings DJIA -6. 12 weeks ago larger swings, DJIA -77. Five weeks of downturn totaling -486.
11 weeks ago, recovery begins with larger swings, DJIA +186. 10 weeks ago, broadbased gains DJIA +128. 9 weeks ago, DJIA +154. 8 weeks ago, a slowing, DJIA +79. 7 weeks ago, DJIA +165. Five weeks of gains totaling DJIA +712.
6 weeks ago, DJIA -53, breaking the up trend. 5 weeks ago, DJIA -99, two straight down weeks. 4 weeks ago DJIA a deceiving +99. 3 weeks ago a weak DJIA +8. 2 weeks ago DJIA -168. Five weeks of downturn totaling DJIA -213
Last week DJIA +242 on a broadbased new year buy in. Mon DJIA +53 with nice followthrough. Tues, 5 day rally pauses, DJIA flat. Wen. DJIA +30 on equal volume with decent internals. Thur, DJIA -81 on higher volume with lousy internals.
Today, DJIA -2 on lower volume with midlin internals. This week DJIA Flat +0, over the last 16 weeks +255. XOI & XAU up BIG, DJUA up nicely, RUT weak, MID, NDX & DJTA down, SOX pounded down. CAC, DAX, FTSE down BIG, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 up.
Sectors: Healthcare, Airlines & Semis pounded down. Gold Bugs, Natural Gas, Oil, Tobacco, Utilities & Commodities up nicely.
Dollar down vs. Euro & up vs. Yen , XAU & gold up BIG @ 557, XOI up & crude down @ 63.92, CRB commodities up. Natural Gas pounded down again yesterday -3.2%, today -2.5% today to 8.70.
Yield curve INVERTED BIGTIME bonds up BIG with the 10 year yield falling @ 4.35% & the 30 year @ 4.52. 3 mo & 5 year gap @ -4 bp; 6 mo & 2 year gap @ -9 bp; 6 mo & 5 year gap @ -14 bp; 6 mo & 10 year gap @ -7 bp; 2 & 5 year gap @ -5 bp; 2 & 10 year gap @ 2 bp; 5 & 10 year gap @ 7 bp; 10 & 30 gap @ 17 bp.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Jan 17 Empire State, Capacity Utilization; Industrial Production; Jan 18 CPI, Core CPI, Net Foreign Purchases, Crude Inventory; Fed Beige Book; Jan 19 Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philly Fed; Jan 20 Michigan Sentiment.
From yesterday: "Next week we cannot preclude a rebound on short covering until perhaps the 20th or 24th, but after that it looks grim... add in lowered forward guidance and disappointing EPS from stock options expensing during reporting season and we could see a consolidation which would give up almost all of this years gains by January 31st."
The market recovered from yesterdays consolidation or options unwind. We are hovering at 1745 NDX and will watch that number for support and any meaningful breech to the downside, additional support awaits at 1730.
We look for short covering and irrational exhuberance to raise the bar through the 24th, watching 1795 NDX and the RUT at 730 - 740 as an upper limit. If this plays out, then look out below, it will be a long and hard fall.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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