NFL Divisional Playoffs AFC
Last week vs the spread, we took two road dogs (Washington, Carolina), one home favorite (New England) and one rare road favorite (Pittsburgh).
As one Naybob Fan put it, "you picked all 4 vs the spread deadnuts". We will try to do it again. Today the AFC matchups, tomorrow the NFC and a review.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis -9.5
In their last three games, albeit the last two being meaningless, the Colts were held to 24 (San Diego) , 43 (Seattle) and 11 (Arizona) yards rushing. The last meaningful Colt victory vs Jacksonville had them rushing for 99 yards.
This is a disturbing trend, as teams who cannot run the ball, nor defend against it, do not win Super Bowls, much less playoff games. Worse yet for the Colts, in the San
Diego and Seattle losses, their defense allowed 206 and 173 yards rushing.
Pittsburgh is a simple team, they play smash mouth football, hard aggressive defense while attempting to run the ball down your throat.
When Pittsburgh rushes for over 100 yards, they win. In doing so, the Steelers control the rock and generally hold the opponent to under 100 yards rushing.
In their week 12 matchup with the Colts, the Steelers were held to 86 yards vs the Colts 127 yards rushing. Extracting the takeaways and resulting points, the Colts would have won 16-0 rather than 26-7.
In their 5 consecutive victories Pittburgh has rushed for 190 (Chicago), 142 (Minnesota), 209 (Cleveland), 199 (Detroit), and 144 (Cincinnati), while allowing only 50 points during the stretch for an average of 10 points per game.
If the Colts trend of rushing ineptitude continues vs the Steelers, and the Steelers can control the ball, we may see a redux of San Diego's 26-17 thrashing of the Colts in Indianapolis this Saturday.
We like the revenge factor for Pittsburgh and Coach Cowher to scour the films of the Monday night debacle in an effort to stop the Colts running game and harass QB Manning.
We don't like the Colts or Dungy's history of choking in the playoffs, Indianapolis probably wins again but does not cover the 9.5. If Pittsburgh rushes for over 100 and holds the Colts under 100, the Steelers win outright. Pick: Pittsburgh +9.5
New England at Denver -3
Starting RB's Kevin Faulk Corey Dillon, and DE Richard Seymour did not play in the Patriots embarrasing week six 28-20 loss at Denver.
Against an injury riddled New England secondary and front seven, the Broncos ran roughshod for 178 yards and had touchdown drives of 97, 91, 80 and 74 yards. Denver scored 28 unanswered points in building a 28-3 lead early in the 2nd half.
With both starting running backs out to injury, Patriot QB Brady made 46 passing attempts, this is NOT Belichick football. Yet, the Patriots still had a chance to tie the game on their last drive. After Denvers opening TD drive of the 2nd half, the Patriot defense shut the Broncos down.
The last playoff opponent to do this to the Patriots was last years Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers beat the Patriots, 34-20, in the regular season, but were X'ed ,O'ed and KO'ed by them at home, 41-27, in the AFC Title game.
As oppossed to the earlier matchup vs Denver, when the Patriots were struggling with injuries, this time the Patriots front seven are solid, the running game is back and they are on a roll.
In their last nine games, (excepting the Miami season finale, as the Patriots rested everyone) the Patriots have allowed only KC (112) to rush for over 100 yards. Since DE Richard Seymours return the Patriots are only allowing an average 3.1 rushing yards per play, dropping from 4.8, and no one has ripped a long gainer against them.
Furthermore, since 2001, Patriots Coach Bill Belichick is 17-2 when facing a team for the second time in a season. And he is 6-0 since 2001 when he has had the chance to avenge a loss suffered earlier in the season.
Denvers RB Anderson 1014 yards and RB Tatum 921 almost became the second tandem to both go over 1000 yards rushing since Clevelands Byner and Mack did it in 1985. When the Denver running game gets gummed up, pressure can be put on Plummer and the passing game.
Unlike in the earlier matchup, we like a healthy Patriot front seven to contain the Broncos potent running game forcing QB Plummer to throw. Belichick's defensive scheme should rile and intimidate QB Plummer into mistakes, and Denver has a penchant for losing playoff games at home as a favorite.
When under pressure, Bronco QB Plummer has managed two consecutive blow out losses at Indy in the playoffs. We like the Patriots and their playoff experience or "money time" mentality to avenge their loss earlier this season and beat the three point spread. Pick: New England +3
As one Naybob Fan put it, "you picked all 4 vs the spread deadnuts". We will try to do it again. Today the AFC matchups, tomorrow the NFC and a review.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis -9.5
In their last three games, albeit the last two being meaningless, the Colts were held to 24 (San Diego) , 43 (Seattle) and 11 (Arizona) yards rushing. The last meaningful Colt victory vs Jacksonville had them rushing for 99 yards.
This is a disturbing trend, as teams who cannot run the ball, nor defend against it, do not win Super Bowls, much less playoff games. Worse yet for the Colts, in the San
Diego and Seattle losses, their defense allowed 206 and 173 yards rushing.
Pittsburgh is a simple team, they play smash mouth football, hard aggressive defense while attempting to run the ball down your throat.
When Pittsburgh rushes for over 100 yards, they win. In doing so, the Steelers control the rock and generally hold the opponent to under 100 yards rushing.
In their week 12 matchup with the Colts, the Steelers were held to 86 yards vs the Colts 127 yards rushing. Extracting the takeaways and resulting points, the Colts would have won 16-0 rather than 26-7.
In their 5 consecutive victories Pittburgh has rushed for 190 (Chicago), 142 (Minnesota), 209 (Cleveland), 199 (Detroit), and 144 (Cincinnati), while allowing only 50 points during the stretch for an average of 10 points per game.
If the Colts trend of rushing ineptitude continues vs the Steelers, and the Steelers can control the ball, we may see a redux of San Diego's 26-17 thrashing of the Colts in Indianapolis this Saturday.
We like the revenge factor for Pittsburgh and Coach Cowher to scour the films of the Monday night debacle in an effort to stop the Colts running game and harass QB Manning.
We don't like the Colts or Dungy's history of choking in the playoffs, Indianapolis probably wins again but does not cover the 9.5. If Pittsburgh rushes for over 100 and holds the Colts under 100, the Steelers win outright. Pick: Pittsburgh +9.5
New England at Denver -3
Starting RB's Kevin Faulk Corey Dillon, and DE Richard Seymour did not play in the Patriots embarrasing week six 28-20 loss at Denver.
Against an injury riddled New England secondary and front seven, the Broncos ran roughshod for 178 yards and had touchdown drives of 97, 91, 80 and 74 yards. Denver scored 28 unanswered points in building a 28-3 lead early in the 2nd half.
With both starting running backs out to injury, Patriot QB Brady made 46 passing attempts, this is NOT Belichick football. Yet, the Patriots still had a chance to tie the game on their last drive. After Denvers opening TD drive of the 2nd half, the Patriot defense shut the Broncos down.
The last playoff opponent to do this to the Patriots was last years Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers beat the Patriots, 34-20, in the regular season, but were X'ed ,O'ed and KO'ed by them at home, 41-27, in the AFC Title game.
As oppossed to the earlier matchup vs Denver, when the Patriots were struggling with injuries, this time the Patriots front seven are solid, the running game is back and they are on a roll.
In their last nine games, (excepting the Miami season finale, as the Patriots rested everyone) the Patriots have allowed only KC (112) to rush for over 100 yards. Since DE Richard Seymours return the Patriots are only allowing an average 3.1 rushing yards per play, dropping from 4.8, and no one has ripped a long gainer against them.
Furthermore, since 2001, Patriots Coach Bill Belichick is 17-2 when facing a team for the second time in a season. And he is 6-0 since 2001 when he has had the chance to avenge a loss suffered earlier in the season.
Denvers RB Anderson 1014 yards and RB Tatum 921 almost became the second tandem to both go over 1000 yards rushing since Clevelands Byner and Mack did it in 1985. When the Denver running game gets gummed up, pressure can be put on Plummer and the passing game.
Unlike in the earlier matchup, we like a healthy Patriot front seven to contain the Broncos potent running game forcing QB Plummer to throw. Belichick's defensive scheme should rile and intimidate QB Plummer into mistakes, and Denver has a penchant for losing playoff games at home as a favorite.
When under pressure, Bronco QB Plummer has managed two consecutive blow out losses at Indy in the playoffs. We like the Patriots and their playoff experience or "money time" mentality to avenge their loss earlier this season and beat the three point spread. Pick: New England +3
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