NFL Divisional Playoffs NFC

Washington at Seattle -9

The Redskins are in this game courtesy of three Tampa Bay turnovers, leading directly to 14 early Washington points, resulting in a 17-10 Redskin victory. Washington's offense could manage only one sustained drive leading to 3 points, and mustered only 120 yards of offense, 25 of it rushing.

Seattle lost at Washington week three, 20-17 in overtime. The game was statistically even with no prominent difference excepting the following: The Redskins held the ball 39 minutes vs the Seahawks 26.

In addition, the Seahawks were flagged 8 times for 84 yards vs the Redskins 2 times for 10 yards, and Seattle missed two field goals, a 48 yarder and a potential game winning 46 yarder at the end of regulation.

Since that week three matchup the Seahawks ran off 11 straight victories before tanking their meaningless season finale. Washington on the road 5-4, but looking inside the numbers:

(excepting the 36-0 debacle at NY); at Denver 21-19; at KC 28-21; at Tampa Bay 36-35. The Skins were close to some good teams on the road, and they later avenged both the TB and NY losses.

Throw out Washington's four non conference losses and they are 11-2. In the Skins six straight victories: Rushing yardage TB 75 Skins 95; Philly 96 Skins 151; NY 99 Skins 156; Dallas 109 Skins 171; Arizona 62 Skins 109; Rams 49 Skins 257.

Seattle at home 8-0; sqeaking by on last second wins over close Washington rivals Dallas 13-10 and NY Giants 24-21 in overtime.

In those two games: Rushing yards Seattle 72; Dallas 164, Time of possession Seattle 26; Dallas 34. Rushing yards NY 166; Seattle 127. Time of possession Seattle 33, NY 39. Seattles last three meaningful games (excepting walk overs Philly & SF) Total yards allowed: NY 490, Tennessee 417; Indy 387.

We don't think Seattle's defense is as good as Tampa Bay's, this should give the Skins a chance to hold the rock and run effectively. On paper, Seattle defends the run well, this is because teams are busy passing them to death.

Should Washington make no mistakes, it could be a close game. And we will go so far to say, if Washington outrushes Seattle they could win outright. Don't be surprised if the Washington running game is opened up by their passing game.

Seattle has many offensive weapons, especially a potent running game, but they have problems when they can't run the ball and Washington defends the run well.

With playoff experience from last year and home field, the Seahawks probably will get revenge for the loss earlier this season, but unless the Skins self destruct the Squaks don't cover the nine points. Pick: Washington +9

Carolina at Chicago -3

As noted last week, Carolina plays better on the road 7-2 and Eli Mannings rookie like mistakes cost NY. The Giants coughed up the rock 5 times while the Panthers played purrfect.

Carolina totally dominated the NY Giants 23-0, rushing for 223 yards (against an injury ridden Giant linebacking core) and only having to pass for 112 yards. Time of possession was the key 42 minutes to 17 as NY only gained 132 yards on 35 plays.

This was the 1st time a home team got skunked in the playoffs since 1979, when Tampa Bay was blanked 9-0 at home in the NFC Title game by the then L.A. Rams. The one blemish in Carolinas effort was allowing 4 sacks and we will refer to this later.

Recent past history: The Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl in 01 with a stingy defense and QB Trent Dilfer. In 03 the Tampa Bay Bucs won the Super Bowl with a crushing defense and QB Brad Johnson. Chicago QB Rex Grossman is at least as good as these two Super Bowl winning QB's, think about it.

Due to injuries, Bear QB Rex Grossman has played six games in two seasons. As a result, no defensive coordinator has much film, let alone a book of tendencies on him. He read defenses very well, has a quick release and can throw with accuracy and zip.

Whereas Rookie Bear QB Kyle Orton has no arm and opposing defenses can defend the run by stacking the box against Da Bears, Grossman can heave it downfield and open up the Bear running game by keeping defenses honest.

This should be troubling for Carolina who went into Chicago earlier this year and got shut down by the Bears #1 defense. The Panthers lost 13-3 to a one dimensional Chicago offense which went 10-4 this year with armless rookie QB Orton. FYI, Orton fumbled 11 times and threw 13 picks during Da Bears 8 game winning streak.

Statistically the match up was fairly even, except for Carolinas two turnovers which set up 10 Bear points. The Panthers were held to 55 yards rushing while the Bears rushed for 122 yards even though Carolina was stacking 7-8 defenders up front.

Unable to run against the Bears, Carolina QB Delhomme threw 38 times. Panther WR Steve Smith had a huge game, 14 receptions for 169 yards. In fact, WR Smith is the Panther passing game, as he had over 1400 yards on the year, 800 yards more than the next Panther receiver.

The Panthers did miss a 46 yard field goal, not hard to do in the swirling cold winds of Soldier Field. Chicago QB Orton also threw a pick at the Carolina 27, killing a Bear drive.

This matchup should be a defensive struggle, and without a book on the Chicago QB, all Carolina coach Fox can do is attempt to rile and harrie playoff rookie QB Grossman by blitzing him. This strategy will either expose Grossman by causing turnovers or the Carolina defense will get beat badly by Grossman's quick release.

After being shutdown in the first matchup with Chicago, the Panther running game and defense has done the following: 113-53 at Buffalo; 229-26 vs Atlanta; 82-114 vs Tampa Bay; 161-94 at New Orleans; 71-214 vs Dallas; 229-26 at Atlanta; 223-41 at NY.

It would seem Deshaun Foster got healthy, but the Chicago, Tampa Bay and Dallas games are telling of diffculty on the part of the Carolina tackles ability to block against aggressive defenses.

Panther coach John Fox will review the Pittsburgh-Chicago game film, in which the Steelers ran for 190 yards and ended Da Bear winning streak 21-9 as the Bears laid their only egg since early in the season. But there is a caveat.

Upon review, Coach Fox will discover that both Bear starting safeties did not play due to injury. This allowed Pittsburgh to stretch the Bear defense by throwing downfield and screens to their backs to counter the blitz, which kept the Bears honest and opened up the running game for the Steelers. This week, the Panthers will not have that luxury.

We did check the injury and active list for the previous matchup, Carolina played with a healthy team. Refering back to last week as the NY Giants sacked the Carolina QB 4 times in a losing effort. In the first matchup against Chicago, Carolina QB Delhomme was sacked EIGHT TIMES!

One more thing, Da Bears are 7-1 at home, losing week 3 to Cincinnati. Excluding that game Da Bears have allowed a total of only 37 POINTS in 7 home games, thats 5.3 points per game. Carolina has the playoff experience from 2 years ago and Da Bears QB is a "REX" factor.

All Da Bear's coach Lovie Smith needs to do is follow the same script with the exception of the REX factor, which should confound the Panthers defensive strategy. If Chicago's offense makes no mistakes, the Bear defense and inclimate weather will win the game. We like Da Bears and their defense to win the rematch and cover the 3.

Thus advancing to strangle their next victim, probably Seattle, on the road to Super Bowl 40 in Detroit. This we are sure of, the winner of this game goes to the Super Bowl. Pick: Chicago -3

Tomorrow a final recommendation and review of our picks.