2018 NFL Super Bowl LIII Sunday Picks Against The Spread
Our prescient Week 17 statement...
Last year, we were NUMBER ONE on the web picking all NFL games against the spread (ATS), regular (146-103-7) and including playoffs we finished (151-108-8).
Recapping this years exploits in the land of the number... Since Week 9, we vaporized a THIRTEEN game deficit to pass Boston Globe Ben Volin @ 138-117-11; NOLA.com Jim Derry @ 143-114-9; and CBS Jamey Eisenberg @ 144-115-7.
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the ever shifting MSM "expert" tracking sand (much like moi). After 20 weeks and 266 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is @ 148-111-7.
Holding to last weeks Stand By Me theme we showed no fear against 71% road dog failure rates, as both our mutts won outright. Albeit both advanced with what has been considered by many to be National Flagball League tainted Zebra laundry assists.
After Super Bowl LIII, our 2 year totals in picking ALL 534 games against the spread (Est. 299-225-10) will surpass all experts, touts, pundits, analysts, etc. and its not even remotely close. Following up on this season's weekly chase themes...
Reflecting not one, but two amazing comebacks from seemingly insurmountable deficits, an unparalleled two year record and what the winner of this weeks game will be called... this weeks theme? (The original can be found here.)
Apropos and deserved we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or You're simply the best, better than all the rest.
Moving West...
Super Bowl LIII
Sunday 18:30 EST CBS O/U 56.5
NE vs LAR
Of note: TOM LAR +10; NE +11; D sacks NE 30 LAR 41. Sacks allowed NE 21 LAR 33.
Trending from Week 13:
Pass D - Advantage LAR
LAR Int 8; TD 7; rating 81.2; success 45%; #5
NE Int 7; TD 13; rating 87.8; success 47%; #13
Overall D
Rushing - Advantage LAR
LAR success 42%; 4.2ypc; #6
NE success 52%; 5.3ypc; #26
Run Rabbit Run?
Last year, on the eve of SB LII we spoke to The Pharoah's ailing Achilles Heel. As The Patriots said "Achilles Heel" has changed in nature, this years edition is much simpler. With fairly equal passing attacks, a nod to Tom Terrific's performance levels and experience, the team that holds the rock, controls the clock and runs best will win.
Rushing offense YTD LAR 2231 yds #3 on 439 carries; 4.9ypc #1. Unlike SEA, BAL and CAR, the Rams back that ground game up with a potent passing game. The Rams ran roughshod over the Pokes #4 run D for 273 yds and despite falling behind 13-0 early, exploited the Saints overrated #2 run D for 77 yds. Can the Gurley Ewe's exploit the Minutemen in the same fashion?
Falling Down The Rabbit Hole?
YTD, both the Minutemen 4.9ypc and Ram 5.1ypc run defenses have suffered, #29 and #32 respectively. Of late, both sides "seem" to be cinching their belts in that aspect. As previously noted in both our Divisional and Conference picks....
At the Saints, Gurley took a reduced number of snaps 32 to 37 for Anderson, gaining 13yds on only 5 touches. In the last six weeks, Gurley only saw normal touches vs Jerry's Kidz. Will we see Gurley and Anderson do more than just pound the rock?
Group Fun?
Sean Payton and Drew Brees could not stop the Gurley Ewes with a Q1 13 point lead at home. Thus far in the playoffs, the Rams O-line has dominated defenses superior to the Pats in both Jerry's Kidz and The Big Easy Pietists. Why should Belichick's Boyz have any more success on a neutral field?
Trending since Week 13:
NE D vs 11 personnel
73% pass rate, 37% success, rating 70.9
27% run rate, 59% success, 6.1ypc
Great against the pass, porous against the run. Dictating the opponents game plan has been key to the Patriots success. What happens if NE cannot achieve changing their opponents script this Sunday?
NE D vs 12 personnel
50% run rate, 47% success, 3.5ypc
50% pass rate, 59% success, rating 132.9
Coming out of the backfield Chiefs RB Damien Williams tore up Belichick's D with 66yds receiving and a 128 rating. Out of 11P the Rams will run, out of 12P a well rested Gurley could become one of many targets.
Utilizing the pass to set up the run, while being effective Belichick's Boyz are #5 in rushing yds and 1st downs by run, but a pedestrian #16 ypc at 4.3. Yet, the Minutemen pancaked the Bolts #12 run D for 155 yds and #31 Chefs for 176 yds. Can NE repeat those levels this week? and how?
LAR D vs 11 personnel 28% run rate, 39% success, 4.8ypc.
Since week 13 the Rams D has knuckled down on the run game in 11P.
NE O in 21 personnel
40% pass rate, 64% success, rating 106.2
60% run rate, 53% success, 4.9ypc.
Running out of 11P won't be as easy for the Pats, but why bother? Since week 13 NE has ran 167 or 33% of all plays out of 21P with success.
LAR D vs 21 personnel
47% pass rate, 61% success, rating 146.7
53% run rate, 58% success, 6.6ypc.
The Rams D has only seen this grouping 49 times or 12% of all plays since Week 13, and have not defended it well at all.
LAR D last two weeks vs 21P only 15 plays or 13%:
40% pass rate, 50% success, rating 153.8
60% run rate, 56% success, 4.2ypc.
In fact, both the Pokes and Pietists under utilization of said grouping might have been part and parcel of the Rams success in stopping Son of Buzzi, Ingram and Kamara?
We expect McDaniel to give a hyper dose of 21P to the Rams. On the other side, YTD the Rams have not utilized 21P on offense, a grouping which the Pats only saw 56 times or 5% of all plays. Hint to McVay for something different this Sunday?
The Pharoah's G Spot?
With Bear and Eagle game film fresh in mind, rest assured that Belichick and McDaniel will cook up a game plan to exploit the Rams weaknesses. Opening up an early lead to take the Gurley Ewes off the ground, and defensive schemes to rattle young Mr Goff into 3 and outs, will be essential to any Minutemen success.
A ginger and spry Brady (inebriated on Big G or Geritol?) will attempt to exploit the Ram secondary to open up the run game, and play keep away. Historically, rather than from the edge, teams that bring interior pressure such as the Rams, have had success against Brady.
This year on dropbacks, the Pharoah has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at 17.9%. A Joe Willie Namath quick release has been the key, regular season 2.59, Bolts 2.33, Chefs 2.55 seconds. Witness, in the latter two playoff games, Brady attempted 90 passes with zero sacks.
Teams that play zone against Brady, play with fire, get torched and of late, the Rams have employed zone. Will the Son of Bum revert to man press for Donald and Co. to harass The Pharoah? If latter day Philips watched the last NE road loss, in which they were held to 10 pts, he knows the formula to keep the Pharoah from getting it up.
Not Enough Viagra In the World?
Said formula? On early downs, a mix of 5 man press with matchup zones. In longer yardage situations utilize more traditional zones, dropping 8 at times. Key: rotate these schemes and transition into them from varied disguises to keep Brady off balance and changing up at the line.
On most third downs, opt for 2 man coverage to bracket Gronk and double team. The 2 safeties should have 8-10yds cushion off the line, but play aggressively downhill. One S should bracket Gronk, to be matched by a man under. The other high S should be kept free to double team routes [Edelman] between the numbers.
In other words, dictate the terms and dare Brady to do what older QB's who have lost a step and some arm strength find difficult to do, get it up and fast. viz. make him throw deep and outside, while potentially forcing him to his 2nd or 3rd read.
Those precious tenths of a second will turn into a tighter pocket and at a minimum, have some bodies crowding, breathing hard on or outright putting some spank on the ageless Pharoah, knocking him off his spot and ruining the mood.
History is Past Tense?
Recapping Belichick's NE SB history: LI 2017 down 28-3, Dr. Quinn forgets medicine woman, botches 2nd half play calling, Pats win 34-28 in OT. LXIX 2015, down 24-14, with 2nd and goal at NE 1, Carroll skips meds and is possessed by pass demons, Pats win 28-24. XLVI 2012, Coughlin's Gmen wrap up Brady again, Pats lose 21-17.
XLII 2008, Military Insects punish Brady, Tyree's snag ruins perfect season, Pats lose 17-14. XXXIX 2005 Eagles out perform but Uncle Tom -3 (1-20 SU) kills them, Pats win 24-21. XXXVIII 2004 Pats out perform but 2 missed FG's make last second 41yd FG necessary, Pats win 32-29.
In Super Bowl XXXVI 2002, the underdog Patriots get pummeled yet defeat a seemingly invincible (-3TOM) Rams team 20-17 on a last second field goal to begat a dynasty. Flash forward 16 years later LII 2018, Philly Foles get revenge for their 2004 loss to the Patriots, 41-33.
Historically, under Belichick NE SB's are a tight proposition -8, +6, +4, -4, -3, +3, +3, +3. None of the victories were decisive as in, could have gone either way. Let's say Carroll and Quinn don't lose their sanity, and those 2 FG wins go the other way? Would a 1-7 SB record be attracting sycophants and bettors? Or would the public, networks and commissioners office be cursing the Pats for making another SB appearance? We think so.
In said regard, the late 70's Vikings, 80's Broncos and 90's Bill's come to mind as does Santayana. History provides a lesson, and one could quote many a Patriot SU, ATS and Brady stat. However, one needs to remember, these are all independent events.
Thinking that those other teams and events, and that six of the last seven SB's have been won by dogs outright, would have any influence on this Sunday's outcome, is like taking stock in planetary alignment at a given moment for predicting future events. Whats your sign?
The Last Detail or Fade The Public?
Last week we took the Rams because they were the better team and a dog. Despite much ballyhoo running contrary to the visual evidence, the better team clearly won in legitimate fashion. We also took the Patriots with the following proviso...
IMHO, the Rams played a tougher schedule, have more upside potential in this matchup, are the better team at the moment, and unlike the Bolts and Chefs, can control their own game script and destiny this Sunday. Does that mean LA will follow through, execute and prevail?
The above list of past Patriot victims should suffice to say, that is beyond our control, clairvoyance and why they actually play the games. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns and we can only speculate as to probabilities.
My sense is that coming full circle from 2002, perhaps this Super Bowl might provide for a karmic apropos balancing of the books for Rams fans? Speaking of which we track public money for a reason, in these playoffs 5-5, YTD 123-138-5.
Much like 2002 involving a +14 NE squad, seventeen years later the MSM consensus (65% ATS) and public money (73% ML + 66% ATS at a 2 to 1 total ratio) is wagering like a drunken sailor going to see Cinderella Liberty, viz as if this game is a fait accompli.
The Rams opened as a -1.5 favorite, and as many bettors are counting the Belichick and Brady SB history like guarantees for leveraged futures contracts and margin accounts, public sentiment moved the line 4.5 pts to -3 for the Patriots. A two point or plus Ram victory would have the books absconding with a HUGE chunk of public money. Katy bar the door?
All that aside, in a neutral dome we would have the Rams as a 3.5 point favorite. For moi, this makes those Ewes embraceable indeed. The easier road traveled or path of least resistance in the form of a 6.5 point value or seemingly "counterintuitive" bargain, of which 4.5 is already paved with OPM or public money.
PICK: LAR +3 LOCK
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
After clawing our way back from 13 games down since Week 9, just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water, you can't even make it past the sand? This season, 16 games and then 11 playoff games remain, and we now look up from a 7 game deficit at Mr. Cote [who seemingly came of nowhere or FLA in this case]. Impossible to catch you say? In 1969, with 49 to play the Amazing Mets were 10 back, and finished 8 ahead. It ain't over till it's over and being sworn to the number and loyal to none, we shall endeavor. - Week 17 PicksDrum roll please, once again, rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that seat or content down loading time to good use?
Last year, we were NUMBER ONE on the web picking all NFL games against the spread (ATS), regular (146-103-7) and including playoffs we finished (151-108-8).
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the ever shifting MSM "expert" tracking sand (much like moi). After 20 weeks and 266 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is @ 148-111-7.
Holding to last weeks Stand By Me theme we showed no fear against 71% road dog failure rates, as both our mutts won outright. Albeit both advanced with what has been considered by many to be National Flagball League tainted Zebra laundry assists.
After going 7-3 in these playoffs, where in the world are we now? Having passed the rest of the pack @ 147-117-2, in five weeks said nine game deficit has been slashed to one with Super Bowl LIII remaining. Kudos to Mr. Cote, at best we can tie him.
After Super Bowl LIII, our 2 year totals in picking ALL 534 games against the spread (Est. 299-225-10) will surpass all experts, touts, pundits, analysts, etc. and its not even remotely close. Following up on this season's weekly chase themes...
Reflecting not one, but two amazing comebacks from seemingly insurmountable deficits, an unparalleled two year record and what the winner of this weeks game will be called... this weeks theme? (The original can be found here.)
Apropos and deserved we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or You're simply the best, better than all the rest.
Moving West...
Super Bowl LIII
Sunday 18:30 EST CBS O/U 56.5
NE vs LAR
Of note: TOM LAR +10; NE +11; D sacks NE 30 LAR 41. Sacks allowed NE 21 LAR 33.
Trending from Week 13:
Pass D - Advantage LAR
LAR Int 8; TD 7; rating 81.2; success 45%; #5
NE Int 7; TD 13; rating 87.8; success 47%; #13
Overall D
Rushing - Advantage LAR
LAR success 42%; 4.2ypc; #6
NE success 52%; 5.3ypc; #26
Run Rabbit Run?
Last year, on the eve of SB LII we spoke to The Pharoah's ailing Achilles Heel. As The Patriots said "Achilles Heel" has changed in nature, this years edition is much simpler. With fairly equal passing attacks, a nod to Tom Terrific's performance levels and experience, the team that holds the rock, controls the clock and runs best will win.
Rushing offense YTD LAR 2231 yds #3 on 439 carries; 4.9ypc #1. Unlike SEA, BAL and CAR, the Rams back that ground game up with a potent passing game. The Rams ran roughshod over the Pokes #4 run D for 273 yds and despite falling behind 13-0 early, exploited the Saints overrated #2 run D for 77 yds. Can the Gurley Ewe's exploit the Minutemen in the same fashion?
Falling Down The Rabbit Hole?
YTD, both the Minutemen 4.9ypc and Ram 5.1ypc run defenses have suffered, #29 and #32 respectively. Of late, both sides "seem" to be cinching their belts in that aspect. As previously noted in both our Divisional and Conference picks....
Since Week 13, the Pats run D has been porous over tackle and guard on both sides, the worst in the NFL allowing 18% explosive runs. All four teams with 150yd+ rushing against NE, excepting HOU Wk 1, registered wins. The poorly coached Bolts did not exploit this weakness, will Reid's Chefs?Both Bolts and Chefs fell in early holes, got pushed out of their game plan, and neither exploited this. Combining for 60yds on 22 carries both fell prey to the 20 carry per game minimum maxim...
Those who choose to ignore this maxim, or cannot execute were a collective 11-106-1 or 97% losers.Thus far in the playoffs a collective 0-6. Will McVay's Rams attempt to exploit the Minutemen's untapped in the playoffs "Achilles Heel"? We think so and suspect a minimum of 25-30 attempts from Gurley and Anderson ala Jaylen Samuels and Frank Gore who both gashed the Pats.
At the Saints, Gurley took a reduced number of snaps 32 to 37 for Anderson, gaining 13yds on only 5 touches. In the last six weeks, Gurley only saw normal touches vs Jerry's Kidz. Will we see Gurley and Anderson do more than just pound the rock?
Group Fun?
Sean Payton and Drew Brees could not stop the Gurley Ewes with a Q1 13 point lead at home. Thus far in the playoffs, the Rams O-line has dominated defenses superior to the Pats in both Jerry's Kidz and The Big Easy Pietists. Why should Belichick's Boyz have any more success on a neutral field?
Trending since Week 13:
NE D vs 11 personnel
73% pass rate, 37% success, rating 70.9
27% run rate, 59% success, 6.1ypc
Great against the pass, porous against the run. Dictating the opponents game plan has been key to the Patriots success. What happens if NE cannot achieve changing their opponents script this Sunday?
NE D vs 12 personnel
50% run rate, 47% success, 3.5ypc
50% pass rate, 59% success, rating 132.9
Coming out of the backfield Chiefs RB Damien Williams tore up Belichick's D with 66yds receiving and a 128 rating. Out of 11P the Rams will run, out of 12P a well rested Gurley could become one of many targets.
Utilizing the pass to set up the run, while being effective Belichick's Boyz are #5 in rushing yds and 1st downs by run, but a pedestrian #16 ypc at 4.3. Yet, the Minutemen pancaked the Bolts #12 run D for 155 yds and #31 Chefs for 176 yds. Can NE repeat those levels this week? and how?
LAR D vs 11 personnel 28% run rate, 39% success, 4.8ypc.
Since week 13 the Rams D has knuckled down on the run game in 11P.
NE O in 21 personnel
40% pass rate, 64% success, rating 106.2
60% run rate, 53% success, 4.9ypc.
Running out of 11P won't be as easy for the Pats, but why bother? Since week 13 NE has ran 167 or 33% of all plays out of 21P with success.
LAR D vs 21 personnel
47% pass rate, 61% success, rating 146.7
53% run rate, 58% success, 6.6ypc.
The Rams D has only seen this grouping 49 times or 12% of all plays since Week 13, and have not defended it well at all.
LAR D last two weeks vs 21P only 15 plays or 13%:
40% pass rate, 50% success, rating 153.8
60% run rate, 56% success, 4.2ypc.
In fact, both the Pokes and Pietists under utilization of said grouping might have been part and parcel of the Rams success in stopping Son of Buzzi, Ingram and Kamara?
We expect McDaniel to give a hyper dose of 21P to the Rams. On the other side, YTD the Rams have not utilized 21P on offense, a grouping which the Pats only saw 56 times or 5% of all plays. Hint to McVay for something different this Sunday?
The Pharoah's G Spot?
With Bear and Eagle game film fresh in mind, rest assured that Belichick and McDaniel will cook up a game plan to exploit the Rams weaknesses. Opening up an early lead to take the Gurley Ewes off the ground, and defensive schemes to rattle young Mr Goff into 3 and outs, will be essential to any Minutemen success.
A ginger and spry Brady (inebriated on Big G or Geritol?) will attempt to exploit the Ram secondary to open up the run game, and play keep away. Historically, rather than from the edge, teams that bring interior pressure such as the Rams, have had success against Brady.
This year on dropbacks, the Pharoah has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL at 17.9%. A Joe Willie Namath quick release has been the key, regular season 2.59, Bolts 2.33, Chefs 2.55 seconds. Witness, in the latter two playoff games, Brady attempted 90 passes with zero sacks.
Teams that play zone against Brady, play with fire, get torched and of late, the Rams have employed zone. Will the Son of Bum revert to man press for Donald and Co. to harass The Pharoah? If latter day Philips watched the last NE road loss, in which they were held to 10 pts, he knows the formula to keep the Pharoah from getting it up.
Not Enough Viagra In the World?
Said formula? On early downs, a mix of 5 man press with matchup zones. In longer yardage situations utilize more traditional zones, dropping 8 at times. Key: rotate these schemes and transition into them from varied disguises to keep Brady off balance and changing up at the line.
On most third downs, opt for 2 man coverage to bracket Gronk and double team. The 2 safeties should have 8-10yds cushion off the line, but play aggressively downhill. One S should bracket Gronk, to be matched by a man under. The other high S should be kept free to double team routes [Edelman] between the numbers.
In other words, dictate the terms and dare Brady to do what older QB's who have lost a step and some arm strength find difficult to do, get it up and fast. viz. make him throw deep and outside, while potentially forcing him to his 2nd or 3rd read.
Those precious tenths of a second will turn into a tighter pocket and at a minimum, have some bodies crowding, breathing hard on or outright putting some spank on the ageless Pharoah, knocking him off his spot and ruining the mood.
History is Past Tense?
Recapping Belichick's NE SB history: LI 2017 down 28-3, Dr. Quinn forgets medicine woman, botches 2nd half play calling, Pats win 34-28 in OT. LXIX 2015, down 24-14, with 2nd and goal at NE 1, Carroll skips meds and is possessed by pass demons, Pats win 28-24. XLVI 2012, Coughlin's Gmen wrap up Brady again, Pats lose 21-17.
XLII 2008, Military Insects punish Brady, Tyree's snag ruins perfect season, Pats lose 17-14. XXXIX 2005 Eagles out perform but Uncle Tom -3 (1-20 SU) kills them, Pats win 24-21. XXXVIII 2004 Pats out perform but 2 missed FG's make last second 41yd FG necessary, Pats win 32-29.
In Super Bowl XXXVI 2002, the underdog Patriots get pummeled yet defeat a seemingly invincible (-3TOM) Rams team 20-17 on a last second field goal to begat a dynasty. Flash forward 16 years later LII 2018, Philly Foles get revenge for their 2004 loss to the Patriots, 41-33.
Historically, under Belichick NE SB's are a tight proposition -8, +6, +4, -4, -3, +3, +3, +3. None of the victories were decisive as in, could have gone either way. Let's say Carroll and Quinn don't lose their sanity, and those 2 FG wins go the other way? Would a 1-7 SB record be attracting sycophants and bettors? Or would the public, networks and commissioners office be cursing the Pats for making another SB appearance? We think so.
In said regard, the late 70's Vikings, 80's Broncos and 90's Bill's come to mind as does Santayana. History provides a lesson, and one could quote many a Patriot SU, ATS and Brady stat. However, one needs to remember, these are all independent events.
Thinking that those other teams and events, and that six of the last seven SB's have been won by dogs outright, would have any influence on this Sunday's outcome, is like taking stock in planetary alignment at a given moment for predicting future events. Whats your sign?
The Last Detail or Fade The Public?
Last week we took the Rams because they were the better team and a dog. Despite much ballyhoo running contrary to the visual evidence, the better team clearly won in legitimate fashion. We also took the Patriots with the following proviso...
We're taking the road mutt, not out of conviction, but for Brady's back door potential.Independent events and that was then, this Sunday the Patriots are NOT in their relished "we suck but we're still here" underdog position. It is the Rams who many say are undeserving and should not even be in this game, that inherit the chip on the shoulder.
IMHO, the Rams played a tougher schedule, have more upside potential in this matchup, are the better team at the moment, and unlike the Bolts and Chefs, can control their own game script and destiny this Sunday. Does that mean LA will follow through, execute and prevail?
The above list of past Patriot victims should suffice to say, that is beyond our control, clairvoyance and why they actually play the games. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns and we can only speculate as to probabilities.
My sense is that coming full circle from 2002, perhaps this Super Bowl might provide for a karmic apropos balancing of the books for Rams fans? Speaking of which we track public money for a reason, in these playoffs 5-5, YTD 123-138-5.
Much like 2002 involving a +14 NE squad, seventeen years later the MSM consensus (65% ATS) and public money (73% ML + 66% ATS at a 2 to 1 total ratio) is wagering like a drunken sailor going to see Cinderella Liberty, viz as if this game is a fait accompli.
The Rams opened as a -1.5 favorite, and as many bettors are counting the Belichick and Brady SB history like guarantees for leveraged futures contracts and margin accounts, public sentiment moved the line 4.5 pts to -3 for the Patriots. A two point or plus Ram victory would have the books absconding with a HUGE chunk of public money. Katy bar the door?
All that aside, in a neutral dome we would have the Rams as a 3.5 point favorite. For moi, this makes those Ewes embraceable indeed. The easier road traveled or path of least resistance in the form of a 6.5 point value or seemingly "counterintuitive" bargain, of which 4.5 is already paved with OPM or public money.
PICK: LAR +3 LOCK
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
Comments