2018 NFL Championship Sunday Picks Against The Spread
Rather than Thursday's in the Loo, it's time for NFL Football picks in the toilet.... putting that seat or content down loading time to good use?
Divisional weekend all four home favorites won outright. Depending on the premium one paid for their spread, three covered, the exception being the Saints who got flagged to death and then Lutzed.
Recapping this years exploits in the land of the number... Since Week 9, we vaporized a THIRTEEN game deficit to pass Boston Globe Ben Volin @ 137-116-11; ESPN Mike Clay @ 141-117-6; NOLA.com Jim Derry @ 142-113-9; and CBS Jamey Eisenberg @ 143-114-7.
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the MSM and "expert" tracking sand (much like moi). After 19 weeks and 264 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is @ 148-109-7.
After going 2-2 this week, and much like last week with the National Flagball League Zebras, cursing the Saints O-coordinator Carmichael and kicker Lutz, we seem to be free of any deja vu. Where in the world are we now?
Having passed the rest of the pack @ 145-117-2, 9 has been cut to 3 with only 3 to play. Kudos to Mr. Cote, at best we can tie him. With three games remaining, we shall endeavor to keep our 2 game lead over the others.
We were on to the Ma-Homes Chefs [and Gurley Ewes] early... WEST: Four straight for 33-1 Chefs, QB upgrade Mahomes improves D. We made ample mention of NE-KC title game preview, LAR-KC SB previews, and notices served by the Chefs in: Week 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 and 11. After which we committed to a Week 11 bracket accurately naming 8 of the 12 playoff teams and 3 of the four contestants in this weeks title games.
Moving West... following up on this season's weekly chase themes, this weeks theme for the faithful?
Apropos we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or
I won't cry, I won't cry, no I won't shed a tear. Just as long as you stand, stand by me...
Sunday 15:05 EST FOX O/U 57
LAR @ NO
Of Note: NO Home 6-2; LAR Away 6-2; TOM NO +8; LAR +11; RZ D NO 46% #20; LAR 38% #6; 3DC D NO 41% #24 vs O LAR 45% #5. Saint DT Rankins is out, which will effect their pass rush and run D.
Trending from Week 13:
RZ D NO 45% 5.2yds #19; LAR 48% 6.3ypp #22
RZ O NO 55% #2; LAR 48% #11
Since Wk 13: Excluding the Week 17 starters vacation, Brees in the Big Easy: 8.0ypa, 3TD, 2 int, 96.5 rating, #9 in the NFL. The recently rested and recovered O-line allowed Brees to be sacked only 20 times. With 41 sacks on the year, the Rams will pressure. Of late, Pietists in the Big Easy: 15-2 SU, 6-0 in playoffs.
In allowing 33 sacks, the Rams have done a decent job protecting Goff. With 49 sacks on the year, the Pietists can bring heat. Since Wk 13 Goff on the road: 6.0ypa, 2TD, 5ints, 59.7 rating, #31 in the NFL. Yes, 3 of those ints were at the Mack Paddingtons.
This is why since Week 15 and the steal of the century pick up in C.J. Anderson (credit brain dead coaching in DEN and CAR), the Rams have 697 yds on 131 carries 5.3ypc, and are running 62% of the time, most in the NFL.
NO has the #3 home RunD @ 72ypg for a reason, why run when you can pass, as they have a matador PassD 288ypg #31 at home. Since Week 13 QB's passing vs NO: 49% success; 93.4 rating; 10TD, 4int, #17 pass defense in the NFL. Perhaps tonic for Goff?
Since Week 13 QB's passing vs LA: 43% success; 76.5 rating; 5TD, 8int, #3 pass defense in the NFL. Why bother to pass when the Rams allowed 5.1ypc, dead last at #32? Since Week 15, the Ram D has contained the run threat allowing 392yds on 92 carries for 98ypg and 4.2ypc.
In Week 9 these teams equally combined for nearly 1K yds in offense. The Saints controlled the ground 34-141yds and jumped out 35-14 near the half. The Rams abandoned the run 19-92yds, lost the TOP battle 34-26 minutes, and the game on a late 72yd bomb to Thomas. Recently acquired Ram DE/LB Fowler played on only 60% of snaps, CB Talib was absent. Ram WR Kupp will be absent this Sunday.
Brees is not a ham (DAK), so the Rams can't sell out on the pass to defend the run. Expect the Pietists to move the chains more often than the Pokes did. Conversely, the Pietists can't sell out on the run to defend the pass, as they did with Philly. As opposed to Week 9, these Rams are a two headed monster. Goff, Gurley, Anderson and Co. could have a huge day.
The line has been steady at -3 to -3.5 with the public on the Rams. We expect both teams to run, pass and the defenses to stand up in what could be a lower than expected scoring game. He who has the ball last, B2B wins vs a good team is tough to get past. Give me the dog to hold the rock, control the clock, and turn things around especially on the ground.
Pick: LAR +3.5
Sunday 18:40 EST CBS O/U 57
Clear 26F, 53% Humidity, Precipitation 0%, Wind 14mph
NE @ KC
Of Note: KC home 7-1; NE away 3-5. TOM KC +9; NE +10. D sacks KC 52; NE 30. KC HPassO 290ypg #5 vs NE APassD 272ypg #29. NE APassO 258ypg #10 vs KC HPassD 215ypg #9.
Trending from Week13:
RZ D: KC 70% 7.9ypp #32; NE 39% 5.6ypp #10
RZ O: KC 54% 6.2ypp #1; NE 39% 3.8ypp #9
Patrick Mahomes sacked 26 times. Ma-Homes Chefs #1 offense ripped up JAX, NE, PIT, LAR, LAC, SEA, BAL and IND defenses. Opposing defenses have not been able to stop Ma-Homes cookin.
Since the MNF 5TO loss to the Rams, 6 games during which the KC pass D has allowed only 214ypg. This is because opponents did not have to pass, as the run D had been matador-like allowing avg 151ypg. The Chef defense has not had to stop anyone, because they haven't had to.
That is until last week vs IND which since Wk 4 was #1 in passing, #8 rushing, and (excepting vs JAX) averaging 420ypg. The Chefs held that juggernaut to 87yds rushing, 179 passing, 266 total yds while sacking Luck 3 times vs a line that had given up a league low 18 all year. Pressure will be at a premium this week as Brady is well protected only being sacked 21 times.
Pressure was at a premium for NE registering only 30 sacks, and the run D has been gashed for 4.9ypc #29. Since Week 13, the Pats run D has been porous over tackle and guard on both sides, the worst in the NFL at 6.2ypc allowing 22% explosive runs. All four teams with 150yd+ rushing against NE, excepting HOU Wk 1, registered wins. The poorly coached Bolts did not exploit this weakness, will Reid's Chefs?
In Week 6, inability to close with 4FG's on their 1st 5 drives vs NE 3TD's had KC down early on the road. This limited the ground game to only 19 carries as Belichick wisely played keep away with 38 carries. NE 36-24 TOP, 31-18 1stD, rushing 173-94, ZERO flags vs 5-58yds, Chiefs 2TO's, 4FG's, Pats 5FG's.
The Zebra Laundry: 1 pass interference set up a NE TD (4pts). 1 illegal use of the hands offense set up an int in the NE endzone to end the half (3pts). The other KC TO resulted in a 4yd NE TD (7pts), adding up to a 14pt swing in the score NE 43-40. The potential presence of the 5th Dimension (S Eric Berry) might make a difference in the secondary this time around?
This year Belichick's Boyz were a perfect 9-0 at the Razor's Edge but registered a sub .500 road record 3-5 for the 1st time since 2009. Beating the Yets, Bills (without their starting QB's) and being lucky at da Bears (Trubisky) were the highlights, not exactly offensive juggernauts there. The losses @DET, JAX, TEN and MIA. Excepting the latter MIA miracle, NE was uncharacteristically dominated in those losses. Tom Terrific's latest assessment might apply on the road?
The line opened at -2.5 and went to -3.5 in some books. The 5th Dimension, a change of venue, and zeal or dazzle of National Flagball League Zebra's, will probably have this game, turning out like the first one should have. We're taking the road mutt, not out of conviction, but for Brady's back door potential. Ma-Homes Chefs win by three or less.
Pick: NE +3.5
Pick
Fav H0 R0
Dog H0 R2
Home 0; Road 2
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
Divisional weekend all four home favorites won outright. Depending on the premium one paid for their spread, three covered, the exception being the Saints who got flagged to death and then Lutzed.
After Week 15, we discovered that we were NINE back of someone hidden under the MSM and "expert" tracking sand (much like moi). After 19 weeks and 264 games, as per the Miami Herald, Greg Cote is @ 148-109-7.
After going 2-2 this week, and much like last week with the National Flagball League Zebras, cursing the Saints O-coordinator Carmichael and kicker Lutz, we seem to be free of any deja vu. Where in the world are we now?
Having passed the rest of the pack @ 145-117-2, 9 has been cut to 3 with only 3 to play. Kudos to Mr. Cote, at best we can tie him. With three games remaining, we shall endeavor to keep our 2 game lead over the others.
We were on to the Ma-Homes Chefs [and Gurley Ewes] early... WEST: Four straight for 33-1 Chefs, QB upgrade Mahomes improves D. We made ample mention of NE-KC title game preview, LAR-KC SB previews, and notices served by the Chefs in: Week 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 and 11. After which we committed to a Week 11 bracket accurately naming 8 of the 12 playoff teams and 3 of the four contestants in this weeks title games.
Apropos we think. Shaking our head in utter disbelief... shall we continue to utilize a double headed wooden nickel in making our selections? Perhaps...
That's life, that's what all the bookies say, you're ridin high pre game, shot down by late Sunday.... or
I won't cry, I won't cry, no I won't shed a tear. Just as long as you stand, stand by me...
Sunday 15:05 EST FOX O/U 57
LAR @ NO
Of Note: NO Home 6-2; LAR Away 6-2; TOM NO +8; LAR +11; RZ D NO 46% #20; LAR 38% #6; 3DC D NO 41% #24 vs O LAR 45% #5. Saint DT Rankins is out, which will effect their pass rush and run D.
Trending from Week 13:
RZ D NO 45% 5.2yds #19; LAR 48% 6.3ypp #22
RZ O NO 55% #2; LAR 48% #11
Since Wk 13: Excluding the Week 17 starters vacation, Brees in the Big Easy: 8.0ypa, 3TD, 2 int, 96.5 rating, #9 in the NFL. The recently rested and recovered O-line allowed Brees to be sacked only 20 times. With 41 sacks on the year, the Rams will pressure. Of late, Pietists in the Big Easy: 15-2 SU, 6-0 in playoffs.
In allowing 33 sacks, the Rams have done a decent job protecting Goff. With 49 sacks on the year, the Pietists can bring heat. Since Wk 13 Goff on the road: 6.0ypa, 2TD, 5ints, 59.7 rating, #31 in the NFL. Yes, 3 of those ints were at the Mack Paddingtons.
This is why since Week 15 and the steal of the century pick up in C.J. Anderson (credit brain dead coaching in DEN and CAR), the Rams have 697 yds on 131 carries 5.3ypc, and are running 62% of the time, most in the NFL.
NO has the #3 home RunD @ 72ypg for a reason, why run when you can pass, as they have a matador PassD 288ypg #31 at home. Since Week 13 QB's passing vs NO: 49% success; 93.4 rating; 10TD, 4int, #17 pass defense in the NFL. Perhaps tonic for Goff?
Since Week 13 QB's passing vs LA: 43% success; 76.5 rating; 5TD, 8int, #3 pass defense in the NFL. Why bother to pass when the Rams allowed 5.1ypc, dead last at #32? Since Week 15, the Ram D has contained the run threat allowing 392yds on 92 carries for 98ypg and 4.2ypc.
In Week 9 these teams equally combined for nearly 1K yds in offense. The Saints controlled the ground 34-141yds and jumped out 35-14 near the half. The Rams abandoned the run 19-92yds, lost the TOP battle 34-26 minutes, and the game on a late 72yd bomb to Thomas. Recently acquired Ram DE/LB Fowler played on only 60% of snaps, CB Talib was absent. Ram WR Kupp will be absent this Sunday.
Brees is not a ham (DAK), so the Rams can't sell out on the pass to defend the run. Expect the Pietists to move the chains more often than the Pokes did. Conversely, the Pietists can't sell out on the run to defend the pass, as they did with Philly. As opposed to Week 9, these Rams are a two headed monster. Goff, Gurley, Anderson and Co. could have a huge day.
The line has been steady at -3 to -3.5 with the public on the Rams. We expect both teams to run, pass and the defenses to stand up in what could be a lower than expected scoring game. He who has the ball last, B2B wins vs a good team is tough to get past. Give me the dog to hold the rock, control the clock, and turn things around especially on the ground.
Pick: LAR +3.5
Sunday 18:40 EST CBS O/U 57
Clear 26F, 53% Humidity, Precipitation 0%, Wind 14mph
NE @ KC
Of Note: KC home 7-1; NE away 3-5. TOM KC +9; NE +10. D sacks KC 52; NE 30. KC HPassO 290ypg #5 vs NE APassD 272ypg #29. NE APassO 258ypg #10 vs KC HPassD 215ypg #9.
Trending from Week13:
RZ D: KC 70% 7.9ypp #32; NE 39% 5.6ypp #10
RZ O: KC 54% 6.2ypp #1; NE 39% 3.8ypp #9
Patrick Mahomes sacked 26 times. Ma-Homes Chefs #1 offense ripped up JAX, NE, PIT, LAR, LAC, SEA, BAL and IND defenses. Opposing defenses have not been able to stop Ma-Homes cookin.
Since the MNF 5TO loss to the Rams, 6 games during which the KC pass D has allowed only 214ypg. This is because opponents did not have to pass, as the run D had been matador-like allowing avg 151ypg. The Chef defense has not had to stop anyone, because they haven't had to.
That is until last week vs IND which since Wk 4 was #1 in passing, #8 rushing, and (excepting vs JAX) averaging 420ypg. The Chefs held that juggernaut to 87yds rushing, 179 passing, 266 total yds while sacking Luck 3 times vs a line that had given up a league low 18 all year. Pressure will be at a premium this week as Brady is well protected only being sacked 21 times.
Pressure was at a premium for NE registering only 30 sacks, and the run D has been gashed for 4.9ypc #29. Since Week 13, the Pats run D has been porous over tackle and guard on both sides, the worst in the NFL at 6.2ypc allowing 22% explosive runs. All four teams with 150yd+ rushing against NE, excepting HOU Wk 1, registered wins. The poorly coached Bolts did not exploit this weakness, will Reid's Chefs?
In Week 6, inability to close with 4FG's on their 1st 5 drives vs NE 3TD's had KC down early on the road. This limited the ground game to only 19 carries as Belichick wisely played keep away with 38 carries. NE 36-24 TOP, 31-18 1stD, rushing 173-94, ZERO flags vs 5-58yds, Chiefs 2TO's, 4FG's, Pats 5FG's.
The Zebra Laundry: 1 pass interference set up a NE TD (4pts). 1 illegal use of the hands offense set up an int in the NE endzone to end the half (3pts). The other KC TO resulted in a 4yd NE TD (7pts), adding up to a 14pt swing in the score NE 43-40. The potential presence of the 5th Dimension (S Eric Berry) might make a difference in the secondary this time around?
This year Belichick's Boyz were a perfect 9-0 at the Razor's Edge but registered a sub .500 road record 3-5 for the 1st time since 2009. Beating the Yets, Bills (without their starting QB's) and being lucky at da Bears (Trubisky) were the highlights, not exactly offensive juggernauts there. The losses @DET, JAX, TEN and MIA. Excepting the latter MIA miracle, NE was uncharacteristically dominated in those losses. Tom Terrific's latest assessment might apply on the road?
The line opened at -2.5 and went to -3.5 in some books. The 5th Dimension, a change of venue, and zeal or dazzle of National Flagball League Zebra's, will probably have this game, turning out like the first one should have. We're taking the road mutt, not out of conviction, but for Brady's back door potential. Ma-Homes Chefs win by three or less.
Pick: NE +3.5
Fav H0 R0
Dog H0 R2
Home 0; Road 2
Resources
Spread info courtesy of VegasInsider, OddsShark, Covers, and additional matchup info Betonline.
Although the line differs on occasion from the links above, try Jeff Sherman's Twitter feed, as the manager of the Westgate Super Book, he might just know a little sumpin.
Amazingly close to what actually went down... way back on May 8, 2018, CG Technology posted opening betting spreads on weeks 2-16.
Weekly "look ahead" lines from the Westgate and FanDuel can be found at The Lines, and a complete list of 2018 look ahead's can be found at the Whale Capper.
For excellent insight, we recommend referring to Case Keefer at the Las Vegas Sun, Jamey Eisenberg at CBS, and the Miami Herald's Greg Cote, as they might just know a little sumpin, sumpin.
Stats and ATS (Against The Spread) courtesy of the indispensable Pro Football Reference
Roster and Depth Chart info courtesy of OurLads
Additional stats and graphics courtesy of Sharp Football Stats
Disclaimer
Use the information provided here at your own risk. This information is presented for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used to make any sort of investing or gambling decisions. We do not promote or encourage illegal, underage or any type of gambling.
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