An Age of Turbulence, Indeed
From Alan Greenspan's book, "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World":
Regarding the Bush administration, "Little value was placed on rigorous economic policy debate or the weighing of long-term consequences."
"My biggest frustration remained the president's unwillingness to wield his veto against out-of-control spending."
Bush took office in 2001, the last time the government produced a budget surplus. Every year after that, the government under Bush has been in the red.
"Congress and the president viewed budgetary restraint as inhibiting the legislation they wanted.
'Deficits don't matter', to my chagrin, became part of Republicans' rhetoric.
In the revised world of growing deficits, the goals were no longer entirely appropriate."
In their willingness to approve spending measures that would benefit Republicans even at the cost of fiscal prudence...
"Most troubling to me was the readiness of both Congress and the administration to abandon fiscal discipline. The Republicans in Congress lost their way.
They swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither. They deserved to lose."
Regarding Greenspun's management of the post DOT.COM bubble implosion:
"We wanted to shut down the possibility of corrosive deflation.
We were willing to chance that by cutting rates we might foster a bubble, an inflationary boom of some sort, which we would subsequently have to address."
The Nattering One muses... I've said it before, I'll say it again... 2 far, 2 low, 2 long, and 2 stupid (not Big Al.)
Big Al lowered rates too far and left them too low at 1% (which is really negative when you factor inflation) for too long.
Greenspun delayed the INEVITABLE, having to "pay the piper" for the dot.com implosion, he traded one popped DOT.COM bubble for a secondary ECHO bubble.
Said ECHO bubble through hyperliquidity has stagflated every asset class, bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate.
Cheap Easy Money, suspect lending practices, financial shenanigans (money shuffling, derivatives, etc.), and housing have become THE ECONOMY.
Housing alone has accounted for 80% of ALL job creation since 2001. MEW (mortgage equity withdrawl) and speculative bubble capital gains...
have accounted for the bulk of consumer discretionary spending since 2001. That spigot has been turned off and a drought is forthcoming.
During all this, a severe misallocation of capital occured. Instead of investing in our future by investing domestically and creating durable economic activity...
the money shufflers have chased yield and labor at the margin through globalization, which has become the rage and brainwash cause du jour.
On paper, globalization is a nice concept, but, so was communism. In practice, and unchecked, its nothing more than a cute euphemism...
for corporate multi national's profiteering, (tax, labor law, wage & environmental regulation avoidance), rape & pillage, run amok.
As a result, our durable economy has been outsourced and emasculated, the last vestiges of our automotive industry gutted and durable manufacturing decimated.
We have been sold down a river with no paddle and are now a non durable service based McJobs economy.
A review of the BLS statistics over the last 8 years reveals a morphing in the "job mix" or composition of work force, that is quite disturbing.
A total of 3.2 million, or 1 in 6 factory jobs, have disappeared since the start of 2000.
Over the past 16 years, manufacturing has declined as a percentage of the work force in 48 of the 50 states.
Meanwhile, the service sector has added 8.78 million jobs since the beginning of 2000, now employing 84% of Americans.
Lip service and the wave of a hand at best... many claim exports based on emerging economy demand will lead the way and that our trade deficit is narrowing.
Last year, the U.S. imported $765.3 billion more in goods and services than it exported, an all time high.
The imbalance with China hit an all time high for a single country at $232.5 billion.
A Moody's analysis found 16% of the nation's 379 metropolitan areas are in recession, reflecting primarily the troubles in manufacturing. I rest my case.
Said non durable economy is now dependent on willing & mostly unwilling foreigners to finance our debts and support or accept our fiat currency...
some of whom never did or no longer do, ideologically, have our best interests at heart.
With housing & finance going into the tank, and the spigot turned off, we have very little to fall back on.
This downturn will not be pretty and begs the question, much like Greenspun, how could we not see this coming and how did we allow this to happen?
Refer to Mencken: "The larger the mob, the harder the test. In small areas, before small electorates, a first-rate man occasionally fights his way through, carrying even the mob with him by force of his personality.
But when the field is nationwide, and the fight must be waged chiefly at second and third hand, and the force of personality cannot so readily make itself felt,
then all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum."
"The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal.
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
[Henry Louis Mencken, "Bayard vs. Lionheart", Baltimore Evening Sun, 26 July 1920.]
Truly a "Jerry Falwell meets Paris Hilton" society...
an exclusive two party political system, and the US publics stupidity has formed a government that perfectly reflects the populace's "values".
Those being religious hypocrisy, ignorance and laziness.
The 2nd and 3rd generation spoiled children of the people whose hard work and dedication built this country.
They take no responsibility or ownership for their actions and want everything their own way -- and right now -- without having to work for it.
They feel this is their right because, that is the way things have always been for them.
They live only to satisfy their every whim and despite forcing their "values" on others, have declared moral bankruptcy.
They spend money they didn't earn or work hard to obtain, for things they truly don't need.
They are mortgaging their childrens futures by blowing the intellectual and financial wealth accumulated by their much more responsible ancestors.
In 30 short years, they have given away the bulk of rights and freedoms for which their ancestors fought and died for over the previous 200 years.
Well, their about to get what they deserve, in spades. Its time to "pay the piper" as this ECHO bubble is about to go into its deflationary cycle.
In the cycle, inflation begets deflation and this chapter or Act is not going to have a "happy ending" for many who will "finish outside".
This will indeed be "an age of turbulence". The good news? The end is not near and hopefully the fallout will allow for much needed changes...
to our antiquated two party political and oligopolic economic systems, as the inmates have been running the asylum amok for far too long.
Much change is needed as the not-so-free market and both political parties serve up "pablum for the masses"...
in the form of lip service and the sedation of illusory material gains. Neither of which have served this albeit...
less than deserving and feeble minded publics best interests for quite some time.
And finally, we must be vigilant that the changes begat from economic & political crisis, much like post WWI Weimar Germany...
do not give rise to further erosion of civil rights for the "greater good", which inevitably leads to a tyrannical police state and eventual dictatorship.
A patriot is loyal to his country at all times and to the government when it deserves it; and must always be ready to defend his country against his government.
Regarding the Bush administration, "Little value was placed on rigorous economic policy debate or the weighing of long-term consequences."
"My biggest frustration remained the president's unwillingness to wield his veto against out-of-control spending."
Bush took office in 2001, the last time the government produced a budget surplus. Every year after that, the government under Bush has been in the red.
"Congress and the president viewed budgetary restraint as inhibiting the legislation they wanted.
'Deficits don't matter', to my chagrin, became part of Republicans' rhetoric.
In the revised world of growing deficits, the goals were no longer entirely appropriate."
In their willingness to approve spending measures that would benefit Republicans even at the cost of fiscal prudence...
"Most troubling to me was the readiness of both Congress and the administration to abandon fiscal discipline. The Republicans in Congress lost their way.
They swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither. They deserved to lose."
Regarding Greenspun's management of the post DOT.COM bubble implosion:
"We wanted to shut down the possibility of corrosive deflation.
We were willing to chance that by cutting rates we might foster a bubble, an inflationary boom of some sort, which we would subsequently have to address."
The Nattering One muses... I've said it before, I'll say it again... 2 far, 2 low, 2 long, and 2 stupid (not Big Al.)
Big Al lowered rates too far and left them too low at 1% (which is really negative when you factor inflation) for too long.
Greenspun delayed the INEVITABLE, having to "pay the piper" for the dot.com implosion, he traded one popped DOT.COM bubble for a secondary ECHO bubble.
Said ECHO bubble through hyperliquidity has stagflated every asset class, bonds, stocks, commodities, real estate.
Cheap Easy Money, suspect lending practices, financial shenanigans (money shuffling, derivatives, etc.), and housing have become THE ECONOMY.
Housing alone has accounted for 80% of ALL job creation since 2001. MEW (mortgage equity withdrawl) and speculative bubble capital gains...
have accounted for the bulk of consumer discretionary spending since 2001. That spigot has been turned off and a drought is forthcoming.
During all this, a severe misallocation of capital occured. Instead of investing in our future by investing domestically and creating durable economic activity...
the money shufflers have chased yield and labor at the margin through globalization, which has become the rage and brainwash cause du jour.
On paper, globalization is a nice concept, but, so was communism. In practice, and unchecked, its nothing more than a cute euphemism...
for corporate multi national's profiteering, (tax, labor law, wage & environmental regulation avoidance), rape & pillage, run amok.
As a result, our durable economy has been outsourced and emasculated, the last vestiges of our automotive industry gutted and durable manufacturing decimated.
We have been sold down a river with no paddle and are now a non durable service based McJobs economy.
A review of the BLS statistics over the last 8 years reveals a morphing in the "job mix" or composition of work force, that is quite disturbing.
A total of 3.2 million, or 1 in 6 factory jobs, have disappeared since the start of 2000.
Over the past 16 years, manufacturing has declined as a percentage of the work force in 48 of the 50 states.
Meanwhile, the service sector has added 8.78 million jobs since the beginning of 2000, now employing 84% of Americans.
Lip service and the wave of a hand at best... many claim exports based on emerging economy demand will lead the way and that our trade deficit is narrowing.
Last year, the U.S. imported $765.3 billion more in goods and services than it exported, an all time high.
The imbalance with China hit an all time high for a single country at $232.5 billion.
A Moody's analysis found 16% of the nation's 379 metropolitan areas are in recession, reflecting primarily the troubles in manufacturing. I rest my case.
Said non durable economy is now dependent on willing & mostly unwilling foreigners to finance our debts and support or accept our fiat currency...
some of whom never did or no longer do, ideologically, have our best interests at heart.
With housing & finance going into the tank, and the spigot turned off, we have very little to fall back on.
This downturn will not be pretty and begs the question, much like Greenspun, how could we not see this coming and how did we allow this to happen?
Refer to Mencken: "The larger the mob, the harder the test. In small areas, before small electorates, a first-rate man occasionally fights his way through, carrying even the mob with him by force of his personality.
But when the field is nationwide, and the fight must be waged chiefly at second and third hand, and the force of personality cannot so readily make itself felt,
then all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum."
"The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal.
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
[Henry Louis Mencken, "Bayard vs. Lionheart", Baltimore Evening Sun, 26 July 1920.]
Truly a "Jerry Falwell meets Paris Hilton" society...
an exclusive two party political system, and the US publics stupidity has formed a government that perfectly reflects the populace's "values".
Those being religious hypocrisy, ignorance and laziness.
The 2nd and 3rd generation spoiled children of the people whose hard work and dedication built this country.
They take no responsibility or ownership for their actions and want everything their own way -- and right now -- without having to work for it.
They feel this is their right because, that is the way things have always been for them.
They live only to satisfy their every whim and despite forcing their "values" on others, have declared moral bankruptcy.
They spend money they didn't earn or work hard to obtain, for things they truly don't need.
They are mortgaging their childrens futures by blowing the intellectual and financial wealth accumulated by their much more responsible ancestors.
In 30 short years, they have given away the bulk of rights and freedoms for which their ancestors fought and died for over the previous 200 years.
Well, their about to get what they deserve, in spades. Its time to "pay the piper" as this ECHO bubble is about to go into its deflationary cycle.
In the cycle, inflation begets deflation and this chapter or Act is not going to have a "happy ending" for many who will "finish outside".
This will indeed be "an age of turbulence". The good news? The end is not near and hopefully the fallout will allow for much needed changes...
to our antiquated two party political and oligopolic economic systems, as the inmates have been running the asylum amok for far too long.
Much change is needed as the not-so-free market and both political parties serve up "pablum for the masses"...
in the form of lip service and the sedation of illusory material gains. Neither of which have served this albeit...
less than deserving and feeble minded publics best interests for quite some time.
And finally, we must be vigilant that the changes begat from economic & political crisis, much like post WWI Weimar Germany...
do not give rise to further erosion of civil rights for the "greater good", which inevitably leads to a tyrannical police state and eventual dictatorship.
A patriot is loyal to his country at all times and to the government when it deserves it; and must always be ready to defend his country against his government.
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