Economic Reports 09/19/07
Summary: Morgan Stanley missed the number with a $877 Million hit. CPI down on a large oil price decline, mythical Core up, ex energy all items up.
SFR housing starts and building permits an unmitigated disaster, -48% from the peak as the housing debacle continues.
Morgan Stanley, the world's second- biggest securities firm, reported quarterly earnings that fell short of analysts' estimates because of a 3% decline in fixed income...
and $877 million in writedowns. Lehman yesterday took a $700 million loss. Third-quarter profit from continuing operations dropped 7%.
Morgan Stanley ended the fiscal third quarter with $31 billion in LBO financing commitments. That compares with $27 billion for Lehman.
CPI Aug -0.2% vs +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Aug +0.2% vs +0.2%. Annual rate CPI-U 3 months ending Aug.: Housing +2%; Food +4.7%; Medical Care +5.6%.
Dairy +35%; fuel +24.7%; educational books & supplies +13.2%; lodging away from home +11%; used cars & trucks +8.1%; medical care & services +7.2%; water +7%.
Annual change in chained 1999 dollars: food at home +4.5%; shelter +3.3%; medical care services +5.3%; education +5.4%.
Interesting codicil: According to the CPI; they subtract 23% for the difference between a 2007 & 1999 dollar.
They should just do it vs the Euro: July 2001 84 cents = 1 Euro; Today 1.39 dollar = 1 Euro.
So, subtract 65% for the difference vs. The Euro since 2001. Repeat the mantra, inflation is tame, there is no spillover.
Housing Starts Aug -2.6% 1.331M vs 1.381K Full Report
Inside the number: Building Permits -5.9% Aug 1.307M vs 1.373M; Total Housing YOY Starts -19.1%; Building Permits -24.5%. YTD Starts -24.3%; Permits -24.9%
Under the sheets... Single Family Residences: Starts -7.1%; Permits -8.1%; YOY Starts -27.1%; Permits -27.9%; YTD Starts -27%; Permits -28.1%
How bad is it? No one in their right mind can say that 849,000 less new homes being built is not going to have a MASSIVE effect on an economy in which 80% of all new jobs since 2001 were created by housing.
Total Permits Sept 05 Peak 2.263M vs Aug 07 1.307M = -956K or -42.2% decline.
Total Starts Jan 06 Peak 2.292M vs Aug 07 1.331M = -961K or -41.9% decline.
SFR Permits Sept 05 Peak 1.798M vs Aug 07 926K = -872K or -48.4% decline.
SFR Starts Jan 06 Peak 1.837M vs Aug 07 988K = -849K or -46.2% decline.
SFR housing starts and building permits an unmitigated disaster, -48% from the peak as the housing debacle continues.
Morgan Stanley, the world's second- biggest securities firm, reported quarterly earnings that fell short of analysts' estimates because of a 3% decline in fixed income...
and $877 million in writedowns. Lehman yesterday took a $700 million loss. Third-quarter profit from continuing operations dropped 7%.
Morgan Stanley ended the fiscal third quarter with $31 billion in LBO financing commitments. That compares with $27 billion for Lehman.
CPI Aug -0.2% vs +0.1% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Aug +0.2% vs +0.2%. Annual rate CPI-U 3 months ending Aug.: Housing +2%; Food +4.7%; Medical Care +5.6%.
Dairy +35%; fuel +24.7%; educational books & supplies +13.2%; lodging away from home +11%; used cars & trucks +8.1%; medical care & services +7.2%; water +7%.
Annual change in chained 1999 dollars: food at home +4.5%; shelter +3.3%; medical care services +5.3%; education +5.4%.
Interesting codicil: According to the CPI; they subtract 23% for the difference between a 2007 & 1999 dollar.
They should just do it vs the Euro: July 2001 84 cents = 1 Euro; Today 1.39 dollar = 1 Euro.
So, subtract 65% for the difference vs. The Euro since 2001. Repeat the mantra, inflation is tame, there is no spillover.
Housing Starts Aug -2.6% 1.331M vs 1.381K Full Report
Inside the number: Building Permits -5.9% Aug 1.307M vs 1.373M; Total Housing YOY Starts -19.1%; Building Permits -24.5%. YTD Starts -24.3%; Permits -24.9%
Under the sheets... Single Family Residences: Starts -7.1%; Permits -8.1%; YOY Starts -27.1%; Permits -27.9%; YTD Starts -27%; Permits -28.1%
How bad is it? No one in their right mind can say that 849,000 less new homes being built is not going to have a MASSIVE effect on an economy in which 80% of all new jobs since 2001 were created by housing.
Total Permits Sept 05 Peak 2.263M vs Aug 07 1.307M = -956K or -42.2% decline.
Total Starts Jan 06 Peak 2.292M vs Aug 07 1.331M = -961K or -41.9% decline.
SFR Permits Sept 05 Peak 1.798M vs Aug 07 926K = -872K or -48.4% decline.
SFR Starts Jan 06 Peak 1.837M vs Aug 07 988K = -849K or -46.2% decline.
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