Market Soapbox Week Ending 09/21/07
MON, down, DJIA -39 on tepid volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XAU. Bonds flat 10 yr yield -0bps 4.46, $ down vs 115.18y & up vs 1.3867E, gold up $723.8 WTI crude up 1.9% $80.57
TUE, BIG CUT, DJIA +336 on below average volume with pretty internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down, 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.47, $ down BIG vs 1.3974E & vs 116.181y, WTI crude up 2.25%, $82.38, gold up 1.6% $735.5.
WEN, followthrough, DJIA +76 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJTA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +5 bps 4.52, $ up vs 1.3958E & down vs 116.05Y, WTI crude down $81.93, gold down $729.5
THU, down, DJIA -49 on low volume with horrible internals. All DOWN cept SOXX, XAU, XOI. Bonds down BIG 10 yr yield +18bps 4.70, $ PORKED vs 1.4063E & vs 114.58Y, WTI crude down $81.78, gold up 1.4% $739.90
FRI, rebound, DJIA +53 on high volume with nice internals. All UP cept XAU. Bonds up 10 yr yield -8bps 4.62, $ up vs 115.48y & down vs 1.4091E, gold down $ 738.9, WTI crude down $81.62
This week, DJIA +377, since 09/19/05 DJIA +3209. CRB commodities up 320.92 to 333.15
XAU up 157.59 to 171.55 & gold up 717.8 to 738.9 XOI up 1409.92 to 1469.68 & WTI crude up $79.1 to 81.62
Volatility VIX down 24.82 to 19. Dollar index down 79.62 to 78.66 $ up vs Yen 115.235 to 115.48 & down vs Euro 1.388 to 1.4091
This week long bonds down BIG. 30yr +17bps; 10yr +16bps, 5yr +11bps, 2yr -1bps, 6mo -12bps. 30 yr @ 4.89%; 10 yr @ 4.62; 5 yr @ 4.29; 2yr @ 4.04; 6 mo @ 4.08.
Resistance: DJIA 13820; SP500 1540; NAZ 2685; NDX 2060
Support: DJIA 13450; SP500 1495; NAZ 2595; NDX 2000
Yesterday: "Its here and sooner than we thought." Yen carry trade unwind.
Not so fast Joe, Yen sunk, long bonds caught a bid, as stated, maybe the unwind already did happened in anticipation? Lets see what shakes next week.
SP500, open 1518, up to 1530, fade to close 1525. NDX open 2032, gap up 2042, rise to 2054, close at 2049. Can NDX hit 2082?
Next week new & existing home sales should give a headfake on panic buying. When jumbo money went to 8% early Aug, everyone locked in at 6% pulled the trigger.
Little Red Riding Hood will be calmed by Grandma, and set up for the Big Bad Wolf (post 8%) Sept. housing numbers arriving mid Oct. along with poor Q3 results.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
TUE, BIG CUT, DJIA +336 on below average volume with pretty internals. All UP BIG. Bonds down, 10 yr yield +1 bps 4.47, $ down BIG vs 1.3974E & vs 116.181y, WTI crude up 2.25%, $82.38, gold up 1.6% $735.5.
WEN, followthrough, DJIA +76 on average volume with nice internals. All UP cept DJTA. Bonds down 10 yr yield +5 bps 4.52, $ up vs 1.3958E & down vs 116.05Y, WTI crude down $81.93, gold down $729.5
THU, down, DJIA -49 on low volume with horrible internals. All DOWN cept SOXX, XAU, XOI. Bonds down BIG 10 yr yield +18bps 4.70, $ PORKED vs 1.4063E & vs 114.58Y, WTI crude down $81.78, gold up 1.4% $739.90
FRI, rebound, DJIA +53 on high volume with nice internals. All UP cept XAU. Bonds up 10 yr yield -8bps 4.62, $ up vs 115.48y & down vs 1.4091E, gold down $ 738.9, WTI crude down $81.62
This week, DJIA +377, since 09/19/05 DJIA +3209. CRB commodities up 320.92 to 333.15
XAU up 157.59 to 171.55 & gold up 717.8 to 738.9 XOI up 1409.92 to 1469.68 & WTI crude up $79.1 to 81.62
Volatility VIX down 24.82 to 19. Dollar index down 79.62 to 78.66 $ up vs Yen 115.235 to 115.48 & down vs Euro 1.388 to 1.4091
This week long bonds down BIG. 30yr +17bps; 10yr +16bps, 5yr +11bps, 2yr -1bps, 6mo -12bps. 30 yr @ 4.89%; 10 yr @ 4.62; 5 yr @ 4.29; 2yr @ 4.04; 6 mo @ 4.08.
Resistance: DJIA 13820; SP500 1540; NAZ 2685; NDX 2060
Support: DJIA 13450; SP500 1495; NAZ 2595; NDX 2000
Yesterday: "Its here and sooner than we thought." Yen carry trade unwind.
Not so fast Joe, Yen sunk, long bonds caught a bid, as stated, maybe the unwind already did happened in anticipation? Lets see what shakes next week.
SP500, open 1518, up to 1530, fade to close 1525. NDX open 2032, gap up 2042, rise to 2054, close at 2049. Can NDX hit 2082?
Next week new & existing home sales should give a headfake on panic buying. When jumbo money went to 8% early Aug, everyone locked in at 6% pulled the trigger.
Little Red Riding Hood will be calmed by Grandma, and set up for the Big Bad Wolf (post 8%) Sept. housing numbers arriving mid Oct. along with poor Q3 results.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not!
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