Timing Is Everything? - Part 8

Following up on Timing Is Everything? - Part 7... Again, from Timing Is Everything - Part 2...

Our prescient October 2nd Nattering at Seeking Alpha... 

Patterns? Waves? Month end, Q end and Golden Week liquidity hoarding did not slow this down much. Or did it just set the stage?

Where? Retro check a DAILY NAS FUTURES current contract chart.

What? Last peak 08/30, prior 07/25, coincidence? Go back at least 18 months, filter out the small chops and measure the drops and duration.

When? Now look at calendar, notice a more or less steady five week duration between major peak dates. See the pattern for what it is, and know that Thurs Oct 4th is coming up. 

At the moment 10/01 new peak 7728, since dropping 100 pts. Couple of days chop and sideways flag wave till Thurs? OR this "cycle" may have started three days early after Italian budget, bond, Euro debacle? 

R2K may already be tipping the hand? An overall eight trading day drop would put us on Mon. Oct 16th. Sounds like a familiar date to me, TBD. Watch Bonds and the Dollar for signs.

On October 18th as a four day dead cat bounce was rolling over to the downside..

Proximo - (our term of endearment for Salmo) Nas chart seems to just be starting 3 down in near term pattern started 7728. I hear those migrating birds (or Harpies?) squawking.

Again, from Timing Is Everything? - Part 6...

Recap to date, in nine trading days between October 1st and 11th, a decline from 7728 to 6907 for -821 points or -10.6%, a decent prognostication? We think so. 

Followed by a bounce, in five trading days from October 11th through the 17th from 6907 to 7368 for +461 points or +6.6%.

Followed by a decline from October 17th at 7368, as of yesterdays open, a five day retrace to 7002 for -366 points or -4.8%  

The big question is, what happens if the current five day slide from 7368 is the start of a larger three down?

Catching up, since the above question was postulated above on October 18th...

Oh my fresh depth at 6901, this isn't Kansas Dorothy.Oct 24, 2018. 03:05 PM

B for Bob made a call...

Quick update to what I'm seeing after today's close: If today's low holds (SPY), then we will likely see a strong bounce up into the high 270s area. After that I think we drop even further than today's low - maybe down to the high 250s or low 260s....My two cents for now. Happy trading 24 Oct 2018, 04:20 PM

Next day October 25th, after what was a one day dead cat bounce ending at 2722 SP500 and 7075 NAS Futures we Nattered...

Yo B, Good call looks like the New York Sack Exchange had a rally today. Jury is still out, I lean towards more downside until after Nov 5th. 25 Oct 2018, 12:52 PM 

The following day Salmo gave prescient advice...

Short is definitely the place to be positioned. Nothing long before Thanksgiving. Don't expect stocks to be coupled with economics going forward.  26 Oct 2018, 04:22 PM

Three days later, after another bounce back to 6991, Young Quin quipped....

Im pretty sure we have already bottomed, and am advising those with skin in the game to jump aboard the bull train, before it runs away without them. Salmos comment makes me wonder though if Ive missed something, and If not, shorting a massive bull seems like a bad idea. 29 Oct 2018, 02:12 PM

Around 90 minutes later as those futures plunged 400 points to 6581 we Nattered...

Bottom??? Looks a bit like this...



and this could be coming... 29 Oct 2018, 03:41 PM



Back to the BIG question posed above, what happens if the current five day slide from 7368 is the start of a larger three down as noted above?  

Said five day slide turned into a nine day slide, 10/17 through 10/29, 7368 to 6580 for a 788 point or a 10.6% decline.  Thus, a new low surpassing 6907 on 10/11 has been put in at 6580, for now.  The last two words are operative, see here...

Further damage? if it breaks 7160, then 6950 which is 10% correction zone. Beyond that we shall not comment. TBD. 4 Oct 2018, 03:07 PM

And now we shall comment... Recapping, all told as of 10/30, 10/01 all time high 7728, 21 days later we hit 6580 for a 1148 point or a 14.8% decline.

For those suffering from the sound byte, elevator version, twitter mental condition or ADD affliction which plagues us in the form of global stupidity... we repeat loudly...  

"Short-term money flows, volume X's velocity, a proxy for R-gDp, peaked in July. They then decelerate in Aug, Sept, and Oct. Then they barely rebound in Nov. That will cause stocks to fall, not rise. " 09 Aug 2018, 03:55 PM - Salmo Trutta

Bearing the above in mind, since the new 6580 low, as of 10/31/18 9AM EST, a bounce to 6934. Institutional and programmed algo buying COULD continue to 7065, or 7150 or 7200. Said bounce MIGHT continue until November 5th, when and where it MIGHT continue to break the current correction.  

Said bounce COULD also subside and give way to the gravity of the current downtrend.  We previously Nattered about that date as part of the existing pattern....

"Watch for fluctuations around Nov 5th, Dec 10th and especially Jan 14th." 10 Oct 2018, 11:46 AM 

Again, from our 11 Oct 2018, 07:53 AM Natterings at SA...

Seems we are at the precipice or magic 10% number, if 6950 breaks on high volume, then 6750, then 6500, then, the gates of hell open up wide... 

Should 6500 get broken on volume, the next stops MIGHT be 6000, then 5750, then 5450.  All of the above speculation is TBD.  In any event, the current 6580 low is a mere 80 points away from those less than pearly gates?  Scary enough?  

Happy Trading and Happy Halloween. More to come in Timing Is Everything? - Part 9, stay tuned, no flippin.

Recommended reading:
Ruckus Premium? (Quarter End) 
Dark Side Of The Moon?
Dark Side of The Moon? Part 2
Timing Is Everything?
Timing Is Everything? - Part 2
Timing Is Everything? - Part 3
Timing Is Everything? - Part 4
Timing Is Everything? - Part 5
Timing Is Everything? - Part 6
Timing Is Everything? - Part 7


From Salmo Trutta:
The Dark Side Of The Moon: The Seasonal Clock
The Darker Side Of The Moon