COVID19: Out Of The Blue?
We've Nattered about crowded environments, transmission, seasonal flu numbers, mortality rates, imagined vs real, the backdraft of draconian measures, predicted "superspreader" events, pigs in a poke, monetary policy, preexisting conditions, a lack of global leadership, social habits, cultures, mutation, second hand stupidity and unknown known's, all of which have "conspired" in many ways to allow a mischievous Jinn out of it's bottle. Unlike others, this was not to infer that COVID19 is much ado about nothing. Alex, I'll take viral spikes for $1000. Trebek queries: Rust and a virus have this in common.
Tonight's plat du jour offering is a veritable Antipasti of Darwinian nature, slightly salty with "surprise" items which are really not, yet heavily peppered with observation, a pinch of sage and "ready to go" narrative cover story. Please do enjoy and don't forget to tip your server. Now picking up where COVID19: Unknown Known? left off on 04/20...
Out of the blue and into the black
They give you this, but you pay for that
Alex, I'll take Wealth of Nations and Bailouts for $1000. Trebek queries: the Tooth fairy, Easter bunny, Santa Claus and Free markets are all this. Whatever happened to natural selection, survival of the fittest? Those who make bad choices should be treated like losers, not coddled. Why do corporate, finance and banking keep misbehaving? Simple, instead of getting what they deserve, they get rewarded for it. At the end of the day, Main Street got thrown under the bus for Wall Street and the House of Finance. Answer to Trebek's query: What is an urban myth viz. Long ago, Smiths hand was severed and hung out to dry. Speaking of which we tire of multiple timelines, and he said, she said so in a clearly objective and non partisan manner...
Ready, Set, Action? In 2003 Taiwan experienced the SARS pandemic, and had a text book response of what to do. This time out, Taiwan's government took 124 actions prior to 03/01, many before the 01/23 Wuhan shutdown and as early as 01/01. Taiwan's actions pass the sniff test.
Proper Reaction? Along the lines of proper reaction, Ash Wednesday was the day after our predicted "superspread" events. On 02/26 with confirmation of their FIRST case, Apokries, a three week series of carnivals, masquerades, music and dancing taking place all over Greece was canceled by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Greek reaction passes the sniff test.
Under Reaction? In stark contrast, on the very same day the first confirmed California case with no source, suggesting community spread. Two days later 02/28 with 63 cases POTUS45 cited "only 15" and called COVID19 on camera a Democratic party hoax. The next day 02/29 which marked the FIRST "known" US death was a quantum "leap" as the 1st US case had been reported 40 days earlier on 01/21.
In between those two FIRSTS, the legislative and executive branches took exactly FIVE actions: 01/24 Congress introduces CARES act, signed 03/27. 01/29 POTUS announces task force; 01/31 POTUS issues foreign national China travel ban; 02/24 POTUS asks Congress for $2.5B vaccine aid; 02/29 POTUS issues foreign national Iran travel ban. FORTY days and nights, exactly FIVE COVID19 ACTIONS. That's all folks!? As the gravity of the situation became evident to certain individuals, a lot of excuses, finger pointing and double talk...
You pay for this, but they give you that
And once you're gone, you can't come back
As above and always, we strive to help unmask ignorance and debunk falsity, so tonight's final offering in that category is bittersweet. As much as we disagree with RFK Jrs. position on vaccines, this slick video echoes the findings from a 2012 study in which four potential Sars-Cov vaccines, each engineered by a different method, induced blood serum antibody protection against infection, which is why you create a vaccine. Unfortunately, when later challenged by the target virus in the wild, the vaccinated animals exhibited an immunopathologic lung disease. What is normally an unhappy ending for the mice, became a horror show. Good judgement is a product of experience, much of which is gained through mistakes. The conclusion from that experience was clear; the viruses secondary infection was enhanced by the prior vaccination which runs counter to a vaccine effort.
The study accurately concludes: caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated. Skipping thorough or past animal testing is NOT recommended prior to human testing for obvious reasons already noted. As to the other parts of the video, claims and associations made, which should be taken with grains of salt, one can decide with their own sniff test, and we shall leave that where we found it. As always, take the best, leave the rest, cautiously Moving West and coming full circle re: our apropos title, we think...
How early did this THING start killing? September or even July 2019? Without any doubt and perhaps much earlier, but again not in its current mode. How long has this THING been round and bout? For all we know which is little, and what we do not immense, this THING or it's mutation "trigger agent" catalyst could have been in permafrost for 100K years, or stewing in a warm bath of gut flora or microbiota? Due to AGW or some other unknown known trigger, some THING thawed out and or morphed awhile back, cased the joint and has now busted out of the dog shed, all weird and pissed off.
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, you can't even make it past the sand? Act I almost complete. Act II: after the inmates are allowed back out into the yard, by August half the planet could have it, and half of those might not even know it. Little immunity, no vaccine in sight, or rushed and mis-engineered (see above) which could turn into a real shop of horrors. Act III: Typhoid Mary Shelley mutations of the THING start popping up and unleash a far worse second wave. Caught with no Mr. Zog's Sex Wax again?
In Dude-speak or surf vernacular, a double up aka Humpback wave. Where a gleeful surfer will enter the tube, and see the light at the opening of the tunnel from which he will hopefully emerge, only to be hammered and tombstoned by the "unseen" wave. For our purposes, where the mortality rate is consistent with exposure of a naive host species to a pre-adapted pathogen. Hence our initial reference in this series: "Do you feel lucky or like Dr. Blair?"
Remember the Out of the Blue viral numbers up top, go read them again you magnificent winged freak, then ponder this Batman... If you thought the Ocean's hold many small Darwinian things, look no further than your ponch and into the Black? Around 40 trillion bacteria in the human body, mostly in the GI tract which with 100 trillion microbes (anything small) hosts twice the human bodies cell count. Said gut microbiota contain 1K different species of known bacteria accounting for more than 3 million genes (150X more than a human). A third of these little guys are shared as common, two thirds are individually distinct. In other words, your intestinal microbiota are an ID card, and you are what you consume. Final Jeopardy? Answering Trebek's original query, what is never sleeps.
Man is the warmest place to hide.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Be well, more to come in COVID19: Is It Safe? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
COVID19: Corona Virus Series
Brookings Federal Government Response Timeline
CoronaVirus Learning How To Dance - Part 1
Tonight's plat du jour offering is a veritable Antipasti of Darwinian nature, slightly salty with "surprise" items which are really not, yet heavily peppered with observation, a pinch of sage and "ready to go" narrative cover story. Please do enjoy and don't forget to tip your server. Now picking up where COVID19: Unknown Known? left off on 04/20...
Surmise? Newsflash baby ducks, with respect to the THING known as COVID19, to date everything has been presumptive, and how's that working out right about now?... Natural killers take their sweet "natured time" to mutate and evolve into more "human efficient" killing machines... [any] claims of successful reaction and rapid return to normalcy narratives have been "laid flat and bare" for all to see.Out of the blue? There are an estimated 1031 viruses on Earth. That is to say: there may be a hundred million times more viruses on Earth than there are stars in the universe. One litre of seawater collected in marine surface waters contains at least 10 billion microbes and 100 billion viruses, the vast majority of which remain unidentified and uncharacterized. Keeping calm and carrying on...
[Re: Total Cases 04/06]... Perhaps 2M global circa 04/15, with the US hitting 1M around 04/21? - I Dream Of Jeannie?
[Re: above on 04/14]... Global spot on, US [1M] closer to 04/27. - YGBFK?04/27 and on schedule the US at 1M averaging 30Kpd with global 3M averaging 75Kpd. As for tomorrow's weather, where serious lockdown exists expect flat to slight rise for the moment. Then there exist the whiny self entitled children who know who they are, and have not engaged in anything resembling a lockdown. As more feel "safe" and anticipate the reign of "tyranny" they "suffer" to end, lower testing may lead to a deceptive decline. Expect cloudy patches with upcoming "surprise" storms. In other news, there has been a lightning spike in ER visits over the misuse of disinfectants. Legal euthanasia for the viral plague of stupidity? If so, inject away. Sports is next with replays from yesteryear, vacuous banter, eye candy, and now this...
Worry not as much like the "terrorists" post 9/11, this bat virus will be the GO TO... "excuse du jour"... that single strand of RNA is not the real culprit for the markets and economic fallout. - 03/12/19 - Great Gig In The Sky?Along those lines MBS was front and center during last years repo ruckus, of late with additional rate cuts in even worse condition. MSR and MBS investors took a duration risk hit upside the head, now delinquency in the shorts. The gvmt backed borrower can file for up to 12 months, no questions asked. After the new 4 month cap runs out how does FHFA cover PI and TI? The MSR holders (mostly non banks and non depository) are in deep banta poodoo. Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie who are also on the verge will buy some of those loans and dump to Uncle Feddie shortly. Cash flow and burn baby, liquidity is one thing, solvency another. The ponzi schemers forgot one critical thing, income or savings are necessary to service debt.
Out of the blue and into the black
They give you this, but you pay for that
Alex, I'll take Wealth of Nations and Bailouts for $1000. Trebek queries: the Tooth fairy, Easter bunny, Santa Claus and Free markets are all this. Whatever happened to natural selection, survival of the fittest? Those who make bad choices should be treated like losers, not coddled. Why do corporate, finance and banking keep misbehaving? Simple, instead of getting what they deserve, they get rewarded for it. At the end of the day, Main Street got thrown under the bus for Wall Street and the House of Finance. Answer to Trebek's query: What is an urban myth viz. Long ago, Smiths hand was severed and hung out to dry. Speaking of which we tire of multiple timelines, and he said, she said so in a clearly objective and non partisan manner...
Ready, Set, Action? In 2003 Taiwan experienced the SARS pandemic, and had a text book response of what to do. This time out, Taiwan's government took 124 actions prior to 03/01, many before the 01/23 Wuhan shutdown and as early as 01/01. Taiwan's actions pass the sniff test.
Proper Reaction? Along the lines of proper reaction, Ash Wednesday was the day after our predicted "superspread" events. On 02/26 with confirmation of their FIRST case, Apokries, a three week series of carnivals, masquerades, music and dancing taking place all over Greece was canceled by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Greek reaction passes the sniff test.
Under Reaction? In stark contrast, on the very same day the first confirmed California case with no source, suggesting community spread. Two days later 02/28 with 63 cases POTUS45 cited "only 15" and called COVID19 on camera a Democratic party hoax. The next day 02/29 which marked the FIRST "known" US death was a quantum "leap" as the 1st US case had been reported 40 days earlier on 01/21.
In between those two FIRSTS, the legislative and executive branches took exactly FIVE actions: 01/24 Congress introduces CARES act, signed 03/27. 01/29 POTUS announces task force; 01/31 POTUS issues foreign national China travel ban; 02/24 POTUS asks Congress for $2.5B vaccine aid; 02/29 POTUS issues foreign national Iran travel ban. FORTY days and nights, exactly FIVE COVID19 ACTIONS. That's all folks!? As the gravity of the situation became evident to certain individuals, a lot of excuses, finger pointing and double talk...
Can you explain that [preparedness and action] gap? Well, I can’t — I cannot explain the gap... Nobody knew there’d be a pandemic or an epidemic of this proportion. Nobody has ever seen anything like this before. - March 19 VideoContrast the hoax clip with above clip, then count 124 vs 5 actions and watch this clip with FIVE claimed as the "most aggressive preventative action in modern history". A war against a "hoax" with 1M cases and 56K deaths to date, due to disorganized effort wrought with mismanagement, chaos, denial, disinformation and dysfunction, suggests a text book of what NOT to do. One hopes future generations will look upon said book incredulously to learn: what ensued was a sad failure of the sniff test, actions speak louder than words and this was not a Greek tragedy. Another case closed, but soapbox still out...
You pay for this, but they give you that
And once you're gone, you can't come back
The study accurately concludes: caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated. Skipping thorough or past animal testing is NOT recommended prior to human testing for obvious reasons already noted. As to the other parts of the video, claims and associations made, which should be taken with grains of salt, one can decide with their own sniff test, and we shall leave that where we found it. As always, take the best, leave the rest, cautiously Moving West and coming full circle re: our apropos title, we think...
How early did this THING start killing? September or even July 2019? Without any doubt and perhaps much earlier, but again not in its current mode. How long has this THING been round and bout? For all we know which is little, and what we do not immense, this THING or it's mutation "trigger agent" catalyst could have been in permafrost for 100K years, or stewing in a warm bath of gut flora or microbiota? Due to AGW or some other unknown known trigger, some THING thawed out and or morphed awhile back, cased the joint and has now busted out of the dog shed, all weird and pissed off.
Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water, you can't even make it past the sand? Act I almost complete. Act II: after the inmates are allowed back out into the yard, by August half the planet could have it, and half of those might not even know it. Little immunity, no vaccine in sight, or rushed and mis-engineered (see above) which could turn into a real shop of horrors. Act III: Typhoid Mary Shelley mutations of the THING start popping up and unleash a far worse second wave. Caught with no Mr. Zog's Sex Wax again?
In Dude-speak or surf vernacular, a double up aka Humpback wave. Where a gleeful surfer will enter the tube, and see the light at the opening of the tunnel from which he will hopefully emerge, only to be hammered and tombstoned by the "unseen" wave. For our purposes, where the mortality rate is consistent with exposure of a naive host species to a pre-adapted pathogen. Hence our initial reference in this series: "Do you feel lucky or like Dr. Blair?"
Remember the Out of the Blue viral numbers up top, go read them again you magnificent winged freak, then ponder this Batman... If you thought the Ocean's hold many small Darwinian things, look no further than your ponch and into the Black? Around 40 trillion bacteria in the human body, mostly in the GI tract which with 100 trillion microbes (anything small) hosts twice the human bodies cell count. Said gut microbiota contain 1K different species of known bacteria accounting for more than 3 million genes (150X more than a human). A third of these little guys are shared as common, two thirds are individually distinct. In other words, your intestinal microbiota are an ID card, and you are what you consume. Final Jeopardy? Answering Trebek's original query, what is never sleeps.
Man is the warmest place to hide.
There's more to the picture than meets the eye.
Be well, more to come in COVID19: Is It Safe? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
COVID19: Corona Virus Series
Brookings Federal Government Response Timeline
CoronaVirus Learning How To Dance - Part 1
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