COVID19: Unknown Known?

April 20, 2020

COVID19: Unknown Known?

We've Nattered about crowded environments, transmission, seasonal flu numbers, mortality rates, imagined vs real, the backdraft of draconian measures, predicted "superspreader" events, pigs in a poke, monetary policy, preexisting conditions, a lack of global leadership, social habits, cultures, mutation and second hand stupidity, all of which have "conspired" in many ways to allow a mischievous Jinn out of it's bottle. Unlike others, this was not to infer that COVID19 is much ado about nothing.

Alex I'll take Unknown Knowns for $1000. Trebek queries: This unknown known, is a potential consequence of transparent distortion? Unknown known, or cognitively what we do not like to know?

The disavowed beliefs, suppositions and obscene practices we pretend not to know about, and shake our heads about, even though they form the background of our public value. - Slavoj Žižek

Tonight's sequestered offering is not for the meek or timid, with ample doses of consequence to be found in our subjective title, such as transparent distortion, paradox and fallacy. Side effects also include risk, perception, preparedness, presumptive curves, speculative models, faux pas, surmise, conjecture, reactions, guidance, Easter eggs (click em), something about Mary, a virus wearing pumps and pearls, and...

a "gift that just keeps on giving"...
(slang) a sexually transmitted disease.
(idiomatic) something with continuing consequences.

Please do enjoy, and now picking up where COVID19: YGBFK? left off...

For further relevance to current events and potential results, we find the parable of Ezekiel 13:10-15 with falsity "and the foundation will be laid bare" to be of peculiar interest.

Speculation? As for reactions or "letting down one's guard or shields" resulting in a veritable house of cards getting "laid flat and bare" for all to see... From market "low" 03/23 T-bill/bond yields up till 04/09 (along with a 75% equity retrace), down since until a long end bond pop on Friday, still nowhere near the 04/09 "high". Concomitant but not coincident? The Fed has tapered purchases from 03/24 $75Bpd to $15Bpd next week. Perhaps a "taper tantrum" on "low fuel" and time to sell stocks and bonds? TBD.

Perception? On the monetary head fake front, last time out we brought up a massive spike in total checking deposits resulting from John Q's burning in stocks and liquidation. Between 03/09 -03/20 TCD spiked from 2.2B to 3.0B = +$800B. Of which $390B flowed out of mutual funds and ETF liquidations, with the balance likely from individual equity share liquidations. As to expert opinion from the March 9th Coronavirus Task Force Briefing, and now this...

If you're talking about a campaign rally tomorrow, in a place where there is no community spread, I think the judgment to have it might be a good judgment. If you want to talk about large gatherings in a place where you have community spread, I think that's a judgment call. I think if you're a healthy, young person, that there is no reason, if you want to go on a cruise ship, to go on a cruise ship. Personally, I would never go on a cruise ship because I don't like cruises - (laughter) - but that's another story.

Conjecture? But that's another story? A judgement call? Judge this... a cruise ship stranded off the coast of Uruguay, on which (128) 60% of the passengers have been diagnosed with Covid19, and departed for Antarctica on March 15th? Even the risk perception of an "expert" has limitations? To date and without fail on a global basis, when one think's there is no C spread, there has been nothing but. Our shields are down? WTFWYT? Speaking of damage and ships of the damned which have sailed...

COVID19 could do substantial damage, and yet it sadly remains a secondary viral infection... [latent] knee jerk reactions will create more damage than the virus itself ever could. - 03/22/19 - Secondary Infection?

Preparedness? To date common sense, cogency, continuity and intelligence in global government responses have been lacking in many quarters. Clueless global leadership mismanagement, chaos, disinformation, denial and dysfunction allowed the COVID19 Genie to escape from the bottle. Initial under reaction necessitated subsequent over reaction in the form of economically debilitating lockdowns to protect the populace from itself? For good reason, some people like Vic are ticked to say the least, and unlike anyone in government his observations and common sense are 100% spot on.

Risk? To date Chinese, Greek, German and S.Korean death rates support the act early, test often and isolate hypothesis. As for the rest, that cruise ship has set sail and like the Dutch, we speak our mind and ask... since we got caught with our shields down, at this point is there a case for "intelligent" or "targeted" lockdown as a part of a herd immunity strategy? More later. Along those lines do read the oft ignored Red Dawn email chain, then watch an "acting" economist and the national Defense Production Act policy coordinator get a flamethrower taken to him ala THE THING. Speaking of which, to adapt, mutate and proliferate, this THING has had since mid November that we know of or much, much earlier?

If it does not fit you must acquit? Above, a model placing patient zero circa 11/11 when the 1st cases were "misreported" as "mysterious" outbreaks in China and Lombardia. Parameters: partial control Hubei lockdown 01/23, R0=2.7 effective rate 1.8 and 9 day serial interval. Aside from early variance at the breakout point in the curve, unlike O.J. the linear and log curves fit like a pair of gloves. Above mid November model like ALL others is "shoehorned" to make the slipper fit based upon anchoring expectations through presumptive data, which ignores something fundamental and far reaching.

The war against this novel virus will be an experiment in terror, which will expose systemic strength as well as weakness... - 03/12/19 - Great Gig In The Sky?

Surmise? Newsflash baby ducks, with respect to the THING known as COVID19, to date everything has been presumptive, and how's that working out right about now? One might want to reconsider entertaining fancied notions that this THING will peter out because of late lockdowns, wishful weather changes or presumptive "flattening curves". Unless one enjoys this type of pie?

Mis-diagnosis and mis-attribution could mean that actual cases and deaths are grossly under reported, and the inferred origin or genesis date is not remotely close. Hint: perhaps why the slippers or boots don't fit, and the goal posts keep shifting? Speaking of transparent distortions...

Guidance? Preparedness, reactions and control have been lacking because mis-calibrated sensors, in the form of preconceived notions, expectations, bias and AGENDA resulting in nebulous and false readings. The resultant GIGO and misleading telemetry generates under-over reactions in the control scheme which can force one's "shields down". Much like falsity in econometrics effect monetary policy based in false doctrine, viral falsity leads to misguided efforts which miss the point of the "experiment in terror" or test in progress. The Devil is always in the details, this is why the sound byte will not suffice in our house. One must learn where things come from, how and why they evolved, and in doing so, you have to learn why things work.

The gift that never stops giving? Even the more likely November start date for this wave is probably tardy. If this THING was globally present much earlier, why were there so few fatalities reported at the time? Novel pathogens create loose ends and reduce closure rates, thus early versions are misdiagnosed as something known. During the 1979 modern day outbreak of AIDS in Baghdad By The Bay many MD'S who "practice" on patients, were clueless. HIV was finally "detected" in 1981 through its secondary infection Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP), and other opportunistic killers that bespoke an underlying immune deficiency. Through phylogenetic study it is now known that HIV originated not in 1981, or 1984 when it went mainstream, but a century earlier in 1884. Read that again. Moral of the story baby ducks? Natural killers take their sweet "natured time" to mutate and evolve into more "human efficient" killing machines. Until of late, this THING has been in discovery or recon mode, adapting and evolving while "practicing" on its host environment with a kinder gentler machine gun hand. Moving West...

The consequence of transparent distortion? As to "late cancellation penalties" and herd immunity, it is now probably too late to stuff the Genie back in the bottle. Many more than imagined are likely infected, and without testing 8 billion, people could be mistaken as "passed over" or cured. With an effective rate of 70%, COVID19 testing yields 30% false negative. Even with a 90% effective rate, pick your population and do the math. In any event, the 20-60% asymptomatic are viral vectors or carriers, with a rapid single strand RNA mutation rate, think short lived immunity, rendering vaccine attempts less than efficacious viz. the 2018-2019 flu vaccine was roughly 29% effective, this years 45%. Now think back to 1906 when a very "Sober" gent thought There's Something About Mary? Mallon that is.

If COVID19 reaches 50% of the worlds population, which it could by the time an efficacious vaccine is available for the masses... - 03/04/19 - Bat Out Of Hell?

Something nasty in the woodshed? As of 04/20 Nextstrain has mapped over 4500 genomes with transmission paths, with an inferred origin date of 11/30/19, and a date confidence interval starting 10/13/2019. Derivative upon the first 160 genomes in early March GISAID data (10K submitted); Mssrs and Mmes Forster with Lord Renfrew at Cambridge published a brilliant phylogenetic analysis which suggests human spread started between mid-September and early December. Said study has now been extended to the first 1K of genomes. We have been tuned to the same wavelength or frequency of the akashic record, as that group of worthy minds. What was previously parallel then tangent, is now an intersecting multidimensional phylogenetic and pandemic path, Nattering for another day.

All that flows from the fruit of the poisonous tree (bad sensor, corrupted telemetry signal) can yield nothing short of erroneous decision making and result in systemic misguidance. - Transparent Distortions and GDP?

Coming full circle in a long trail of crumbs not intended for the Twitter or ADD afflicted... Foundations for temporal proximity in mid January "out of the blue" start dates, other secondary stupidity such as conspiracy theories, claims of successful reaction and rapid return to normalcy narratives have been "laid flat and bare" for all to see. As to our apropos title, we think, the answer to Trebek's initial query: What is nothing will ever be the same again. Mirror, mirror or not, another profoundly clear indicator staring one in the face that COVID19 is more like a gift which just keeps on giving, than a virus wearing pumps and pearls.

They're landing on the Jersey beaches
Their engines make the white sand swirl...
Look out, fellas
It's shredding time...
They're mixing with the population

A virus wearing pumps and pearls...