Market Soapbox 05/02/05
DJIA+59 10251;SP500+5 1162;Nasdaq+7 1928;NDX+3 1424
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Strong: energy, transportation, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, industrials, financial, health care, utility, hardware, biotech, materials, retail, homebuilding
Weak: telecom svc, brokerage, airline, semi, networking
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.2850 105.0350 ; vs Euro: +0.0010 1.2863
Bonds: 10-yr note +3 ticks yielding -.012 4.19%
Gold: XAU +0.17%; $430.50 -5.60 CRB: 302.89 -0.85
Oil: XOI +1.38%, NYMEX Crude $50.87; +$1.15; +2.30%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 69/73; Nasdaq 43/145; Amex 23/45
A/D Volume: NYSE 1277/631, Nasdaq 846/657, Amex 153/30
Volume: NYSE 1.95B, Nasdaq 1.55B
Upcoming Notable reports:
TUES: FOMC Policy Statement, Auto & Truck Sales, Factory Orders
FRI: Employment Situation (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%)
April's ISM registered a 3rd straight decline, checking in @ 53.3 (Mar 55.2, est 55.5). Prices paid component 71.0 (est 71.2, Mar 73.0), employment component 52.3 (Mar 53.3). Overall a benign reaction from the markets.
European (DAX +0.94%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.06%) were split. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, gold pounded down, commodities down, oil & bonds up. Contra action: Oil, dollar & bonds up.
The market gapped up then rolled sideways waving a pennant flag, dipping mid day, and then rebounding into the close on very low volume.
Oil stocks did not get the bid till later in the day, semis and tech did not fair well. Most sectors up on lower volume. For Q105; S&P 500 earnings up roughly 14%, double the 7% estimated.
Oil whipsawing and pullback continues: -10% last week, prices have fallen to a two-month low. Down 2% early but rallied to go past $51 for the day. Natural Gas, Oil & Transports were winners. Semis and brokers dealers were losers.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to: Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers for downgrading Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley respectively.
You read that correctly, the brokerage firms downgraded each other and as a result the broker dealers got pounded -1.92% today. The pot calling the kettle black or Trappist monks into self flagulation? Either way, ya gotta love it, couldn't happen to a better bunch.
Friday: huge AfterMarket volume on the NYSE @ 133M, the dollar tanked against the Yen, which hit a 5 week high vs. $ and bonds got hit hard.
The partially true spin: traders were positioning for a new corporate bond deal and end of the month portfolio rebalancing by fund managers that involved the selling of Treasurys. For the relatively untold story see The Game is Afoot Part I - IV.
Notice how nothing ever came of the RMB unpeg rumour, never the less the bond market is primed.
Friday: "Monday's ISM should be benign enough for the market to swallow. I am going out on a limb, with the caveat that the RMB issue does NOT play out this weekend or Monday. In the morning a continuation of todays upward action, which will terminate and then bleed into the close. Possibly setting up Tuesday as a nice consolidation day."
The DJIA still needs to cover his gap from AM 04/15 @ 10278.75. On the morrow, auto and truck sales should be down, factory orders even or down, FOMC +25 basis points and possibly the removal of the word "measured". Me thinks the 1st consolidation day of the week, the 2nd should be Friday. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Strong: energy, transportation, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, industrials, financial, health care, utility, hardware, biotech, materials, retail, homebuilding
Weak: telecom svc, brokerage, airline, semi, networking
Dollar: vs Yen: +0.2850 105.0350 ; vs Euro: +0.0010 1.2863
Bonds: 10-yr note +3 ticks yielding -.012 4.19%
Gold: XAU +0.17%; $430.50 -5.60 CRB: 302.89 -0.85
Oil: XOI +1.38%, NYMEX Crude $50.87; +$1.15; +2.30%
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 69/73; Nasdaq 43/145; Amex 23/45
A/D Volume: NYSE 1277/631, Nasdaq 846/657, Amex 153/30
Volume: NYSE 1.95B, Nasdaq 1.55B
Upcoming Notable reports:
TUES: FOMC Policy Statement, Auto & Truck Sales, Factory Orders
FRI: Employment Situation (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%)
April's ISM registered a 3rd straight decline, checking in @ 53.3 (Mar 55.2, est 55.5). Prices paid component 71.0 (est 71.2, Mar 73.0), employment component 52.3 (Mar 53.3). Overall a benign reaction from the markets.
European (DAX +0.94%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.06%) were split. Dollar up vs. Yen/Euro, gold pounded down, commodities down, oil & bonds up. Contra action: Oil, dollar & bonds up.
The market gapped up then rolled sideways waving a pennant flag, dipping mid day, and then rebounding into the close on very low volume.
Oil stocks did not get the bid till later in the day, semis and tech did not fair well. Most sectors up on lower volume. For Q105; S&P 500 earnings up roughly 14%, double the 7% estimated.
Oil whipsawing and pullback continues: -10% last week, prices have fallen to a two-month low. Down 2% early but rallied to go past $51 for the day. Natural Gas, Oil & Transports were winners. Semis and brokers dealers were losers.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to: Morgan Stanley and Lehman Brothers for downgrading Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley respectively.
You read that correctly, the brokerage firms downgraded each other and as a result the broker dealers got pounded -1.92% today. The pot calling the kettle black or Trappist monks into self flagulation? Either way, ya gotta love it, couldn't happen to a better bunch.
Friday: huge AfterMarket volume on the NYSE @ 133M, the dollar tanked against the Yen, which hit a 5 week high vs. $ and bonds got hit hard.
The partially true spin: traders were positioning for a new corporate bond deal and end of the month portfolio rebalancing by fund managers that involved the selling of Treasurys. For the relatively untold story see The Game is Afoot Part I - IV.
Notice how nothing ever came of the RMB unpeg rumour, never the less the bond market is primed.
Friday: "Monday's ISM should be benign enough for the market to swallow. I am going out on a limb, with the caveat that the RMB issue does NOT play out this weekend or Monday. In the morning a continuation of todays upward action, which will terminate and then bleed into the close. Possibly setting up Tuesday as a nice consolidation day."
The DJIA still needs to cover his gap from AM 04/15 @ 10278.75. On the morrow, auto and truck sales should be down, factory orders even or down, FOMC +25 basis points and possibly the removal of the word "measured". Me thinks the 1st consolidation day of the week, the 2nd should be Friday. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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