Market Soapbox 05/04/05
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Strong: Almost everything
Weak: Utilities and Semi Mfg.
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 98/31; Nasdaq 59/88; Amex 27/30
A/D Volume: NYSE 1927/310, Nasdaq 1455/392, Amex 205/23
Volume: NYSE 2.265B, Nasdaq 1.879B
Upcoming Notable reports:
FRI: Employment Situation (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%), Non Farm Payrolls (est. 200k, Mar 110K)
April ISM services index 61.7 (est. 61.0, March 63.1); prices paid component 61.9, (March 65.6), employment 53.3 (March 57.1). Index, prices paid, employment all down equaling no inflation fears.
European (DAX +0.44%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.06%) were split. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, oil, gold, commodities up, 10 year note -4 ticks @ 4.18%. Contra action: $ & bonds down.
Oil whipsawing and pullback continues: futures prices fell to $48.80, but oil rallied to close at $50.13.
I apologize for the Barchart.com applets, some of the prices being reflected are yesterdays. It appears that they do not update their data in a timely fashion . I will address the issue.
EIA report showed a substantial build in oil and gasoline inventories. Bonds initially were way down on speculation that the 30 year bond will be reintroduced. A small "boo" from the Fed to spook the herd, which no one heeded.
IBM announced 13,000 european layoffs, the #3 man in Al-Qaeda was captured, funny how they can't nab a 6' 6" guy that has a dialysis machine hooked to him daily. I guess he golfs with the right people.
The upward surge from Friday continued WITH AUTHORITY. All 10 sectors gained on higher volume. Financial, semis and insurance brokers won big. Utilities squeaked by.
Today's Sooey!! award is split between: Merill Lynch for upgrading GM from sell to neutral. Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. decided to increase their holdings from 3.9% to 9% with a 11% premium on price. Tracinda is the majority owner of casino and hotel operator MGM Mirage Inc. Kerkorian is the sole shareholder in Tracinda.
ML's comments "given Kerkorian's successful track record of unlocking shareholder value... embedded in non-core businesses." Translated, if Kerkorian is sucessful, GM is getting parted out. GM shares +18% on the day.
The award also goes to the media spin on this unsavory truffle: SIA report that showed global chip sales in Q1 grew 13.2%. Upon further review, global sales gained 7.2% yoy through March, however, according to statistics released Monday, those figures were down compared to the three month sales estimates by the SIA.
Sniff, Sniff, sales growth figures appeared to hide the disparity between Asian semiconductor sales YOY verses the western hemisphere where semiconductor sales were flat. European sales were down, North American sales were flat. Semi's were up big, yet Semi Mfg was weak, oink, oink.
Today, the DJIA and SP500 crashed through resistance @ 10370 and 1170. They must close above these numbers to close the week. If so, the next resistance levels are 10500 and 1190. The NDX and Naz are still lagging below resistance levels.
This was not a split tape or down day. But I suspect theres alot of short covering going on in anticipation of next week. I stated in a previous Soapbox that mid May was going to get ugly. And for those of you who pay attention...
Heres why: May 10, 11, 12, 2yr, 5yr and 10yr treasury auction. Broker dealers must buy what the FCB's don't, this means less liquidity for short covering. But that's not all you get... its a double whammy.
If you act now... options expire Friday May 20th, and the Wall Street brown shoes, and bermuda shorts hedgsters like to unwind a week in advance.
But thats not all, a bonus for the 1st 100 callers... whoever is left holding after the unwind, dumps the following mid week 2 days before options expiration, when short covering becomes moot.
This means the herd must be sucked in prior to the sell off. So, lets see if there is follow through on todays action or the market continues its schizophrenic behaviour. That should be a tip off.
Big up days have seen no follow through and have preceded equally big down days on higher volume. We might see a consolidation day Thurs or Fri. But the setup is really for next week. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Strong: Almost everything
Weak: Utilities and Semi Mfg.
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 98/31; Nasdaq 59/88; Amex 27/30
A/D Volume: NYSE 1927/310, Nasdaq 1455/392, Amex 205/23
Volume: NYSE 2.265B, Nasdaq 1.879B
Upcoming Notable reports:
FRI: Employment Situation (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%), Non Farm Payrolls (est. 200k, Mar 110K)
April ISM services index 61.7 (est. 61.0, March 63.1); prices paid component 61.9, (March 65.6), employment 53.3 (March 57.1). Index, prices paid, employment all down equaling no inflation fears.
European (DAX +0.44%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.06%) were split. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, oil, gold, commodities up, 10 year note -4 ticks @ 4.18%. Contra action: $ & bonds down.
Oil whipsawing and pullback continues: futures prices fell to $48.80, but oil rallied to close at $50.13.
I apologize for the Barchart.com applets, some of the prices being reflected are yesterdays. It appears that they do not update their data in a timely fashion . I will address the issue.
EIA report showed a substantial build in oil and gasoline inventories. Bonds initially were way down on speculation that the 30 year bond will be reintroduced. A small "boo" from the Fed to spook the herd, which no one heeded.
IBM announced 13,000 european layoffs, the #3 man in Al-Qaeda was captured, funny how they can't nab a 6' 6" guy that has a dialysis machine hooked to him daily. I guess he golfs with the right people.
The upward surge from Friday continued WITH AUTHORITY. All 10 sectors gained on higher volume. Financial, semis and insurance brokers won big. Utilities squeaked by.
Today's Sooey!! award is split between: Merill Lynch for upgrading GM from sell to neutral. Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. decided to increase their holdings from 3.9% to 9% with a 11% premium on price. Tracinda is the majority owner of casino and hotel operator MGM Mirage Inc. Kerkorian is the sole shareholder in Tracinda.
ML's comments "given Kerkorian's successful track record of unlocking shareholder value... embedded in non-core businesses." Translated, if Kerkorian is sucessful, GM is getting parted out. GM shares +18% on the day.
The award also goes to the media spin on this unsavory truffle: SIA report that showed global chip sales in Q1 grew 13.2%. Upon further review, global sales gained 7.2% yoy through March, however, according to statistics released Monday, those figures were down compared to the three month sales estimates by the SIA.
Sniff, Sniff, sales growth figures appeared to hide the disparity between Asian semiconductor sales YOY verses the western hemisphere where semiconductor sales were flat. European sales were down, North American sales were flat. Semi's were up big, yet Semi Mfg was weak, oink, oink.
Today, the DJIA and SP500 crashed through resistance @ 10370 and 1170. They must close above these numbers to close the week. If so, the next resistance levels are 10500 and 1190. The NDX and Naz are still lagging below resistance levels.
This was not a split tape or down day. But I suspect theres alot of short covering going on in anticipation of next week. I stated in a previous Soapbox that mid May was going to get ugly. And for those of you who pay attention...
Heres why: May 10, 11, 12, 2yr, 5yr and 10yr treasury auction. Broker dealers must buy what the FCB's don't, this means less liquidity for short covering. But that's not all you get... its a double whammy.
If you act now... options expire Friday May 20th, and the Wall Street brown shoes, and bermuda shorts hedgsters like to unwind a week in advance.
But thats not all, a bonus for the 1st 100 callers... whoever is left holding after the unwind, dumps the following mid week 2 days before options expiration, when short covering becomes moot.
This means the herd must be sucked in prior to the sell off. So, lets see if there is follow through on todays action or the market continues its schizophrenic behaviour. That should be a tip off.
Big up days have seen no follow through and have preceded equally big down days on higher volume. We might see a consolidation day Thurs or Fri. But the setup is really for next week. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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