Market Soapbox "The Triple Nickel"
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Energy, Biotech, Transport, Heathcare
Weak: Everything Else
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 68/21; Nasdaq 50/59; Amex 25/22
A/D Volume: NYSE 851/1078, Nasdaq 890/800, Amex 80/150
Volume: NYSE 1.950, Nasdaq 1.721B
Note: The sidebar applets have been corrected. $/Yen & $/Euro reflect the change of the foreign currency vs the dollar.
Upcoming Notable reports:
FRI: Employment Situation (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%), Non Farm Payrolls (est. 175-200k, Mar 110K)
Jobless claims 333K (est. 324K, prior 322K); Q1 Productivity +2.6%, (est.+1.8%, Q4 2.1%) fastest pace in 9 months. Redbook and same store sales comps for April avg +2%, the weakest since November. Productivity up, but spending is slowing.
European (DAX +0.82%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.06%) were split. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, oil & gold & bonds up, commodities down, 10 year note +8 ticks, yield -.038 @ 4.15%.
Contra action: oil down vs. transports up; $ & commodities down; major indices all down vs. midcap & smallcap up. Oil whipsaw continues: futures prices +1.4% @ $50.83.
IBM announced a 4.3% total workforce reduction to shed $1B. GM and Ford debt downgraded to JUNK by S&P.
Yesterday, GM was responsible for 25% of the DJIA performance. GM +16% yesterday, -5% today. Seems Mr. Kerkorian knew something that most people did not. ie. the S&P downgrade of GM debt.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to JP Morgan for upgrading GM from neutral to overweight. JPM said that Kirk Kerkorians's involvement has "at worst set a floor on the stock". Sniff, Sniff.
The broker told clients that "a short-term pullback in the stock is not unlikely", and the idea of restructuring the company has suddenly "gained notably more credibility". Snort, Snort.
Ok, so JPM is telling us 1) a floor on the stock has been set; 2) but, the stock will go down further? what happened to the floor? 3) and we should buy it because of sudden credibility? Root, Root.
S&P downgraded GM debt to JUNK today, now I call that "sudden credibility". Oi Vai!!! Shares -5% on the day. Oink, Oink.
Last Fri, two rumours, the RMB revalue and a big corporate bond deal (Sungard) , Tues, the FOMC omission; Today, GM & Ford debt downgraded to Junk. Anyone see a pattern here? Boo, there goes the herd in a flight to safety, treasuries.
Cinco de Mayo, this year aka "the triple nickel" (555), saw the major indexes down one too many Tequila shots and Cerveza's, then stagger sideways and turn their head's down on higher volume. 9 of 10 sectors down on a lack of follow through from yesterday.
However, resilience (the mid & small cap pulled the indexes out of the alley) was shown in the face of adversity (weak stomach and internals). I suspect theres alot of short covering (mexican coffee shots) going on in anticipation of next week (Montezuma's revenge).
I stated in yesterdays Market Soapbox why mid May was going to get ugly. However, tomorrow's Non Farms labor report is perplexing.
If too low, bad sign for economy (market down), signals lower inflation (market up).
If too high, good sign for economy (market up), signals inflation (market down). If close to the number, benign.
The questions are: How will the media spin the extremes? and how will the herd react? We might see a consolidation day tomorrow. But the setup is really for next week. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: Energy, Biotech, Transport, Heathcare
Weak: Everything Else
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 68/21; Nasdaq 50/59; Amex 25/22
A/D Volume: NYSE 851/1078, Nasdaq 890/800, Amex 80/150
Volume: NYSE 1.950, Nasdaq 1.721B
Note: The sidebar applets have been corrected. $/Yen & $/Euro reflect the change of the foreign currency vs the dollar.
Upcoming Notable reports:
FRI: Employment Situation (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%), Non Farm Payrolls (est. 175-200k, Mar 110K)
Jobless claims 333K (est. 324K, prior 322K); Q1 Productivity +2.6%, (est.+1.8%, Q4 2.1%) fastest pace in 9 months. Redbook and same store sales comps for April avg +2%, the weakest since November. Productivity up, but spending is slowing.
European (DAX +0.82%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 -0.06%) were split. Dollar down vs. Yen/Euro, oil & gold & bonds up, commodities down, 10 year note +8 ticks, yield -.038 @ 4.15%.
Contra action: oil down vs. transports up; $ & commodities down; major indices all down vs. midcap & smallcap up. Oil whipsaw continues: futures prices +1.4% @ $50.83.
IBM announced a 4.3% total workforce reduction to shed $1B. GM and Ford debt downgraded to JUNK by S&P.
Yesterday, GM was responsible for 25% of the DJIA performance. GM +16% yesterday, -5% today. Seems Mr. Kerkorian knew something that most people did not. ie. the S&P downgrade of GM debt.
Today's Sooey!! award goes to JP Morgan for upgrading GM from neutral to overweight. JPM said that Kirk Kerkorians's involvement has "at worst set a floor on the stock". Sniff, Sniff.
The broker told clients that "a short-term pullback in the stock is not unlikely", and the idea of restructuring the company has suddenly "gained notably more credibility". Snort, Snort.
Ok, so JPM is telling us 1) a floor on the stock has been set; 2) but, the stock will go down further? what happened to the floor? 3) and we should buy it because of sudden credibility? Root, Root.
S&P downgraded GM debt to JUNK today, now I call that "sudden credibility". Oi Vai!!! Shares -5% on the day. Oink, Oink.
Last Fri, two rumours, the RMB revalue and a big corporate bond deal (Sungard) , Tues, the FOMC omission; Today, GM & Ford debt downgraded to Junk. Anyone see a pattern here? Boo, there goes the herd in a flight to safety, treasuries.
Cinco de Mayo, this year aka "the triple nickel" (555), saw the major indexes down one too many Tequila shots and Cerveza's, then stagger sideways and turn their head's down on higher volume. 9 of 10 sectors down on a lack of follow through from yesterday.
However, resilience (the mid & small cap pulled the indexes out of the alley) was shown in the face of adversity (weak stomach and internals). I suspect theres alot of short covering (mexican coffee shots) going on in anticipation of next week (Montezuma's revenge).
I stated in yesterdays Market Soapbox why mid May was going to get ugly. However, tomorrow's Non Farms labor report is perplexing.
If too low, bad sign for economy (market down), signals lower inflation (market up).
If too high, good sign for economy (market up), signals inflation (market down). If close to the number, benign.
The questions are: How will the media spin the extremes? and how will the herd react? We might see a consolidation day tomorrow. But the setup is really for next week. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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