Market Soapbox 05/06/05
Resistance: DJIA 10370; SP500 1170; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1460
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: tech, industrials, materials, software, hardware, networking, brokerage, biotech
Weak: financial, health care, energy, banks, retail, airline, drug, utility
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 84/28; Nasdaq 62/68; Amex 28/28
A/D Volume: NYSE 801/813, Nasdaq 957/539, Amex 54/142
Volume: NYSE 1.698B, Nasdaq 1.525B
The sidebar applets have been corrected.
Upcoming Notable reports:
MON: Wholesale Inventory
WEN: Treasury Budget & Trade Balance
THUR: Initial Claims, Retail Sales, (ex-auto)
FRI: Business Inventory, Export Prices(ex-ag), Import Prices(ex-oil), Michigan Sentiment Prelim
European (DAX +0.27%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +1.66%) were up. Employment Situation 5.2% (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%), Non Farm Payrolls 274K (est. 175-200k, Mar 110K; revised up to 146K); Hourly Earnings +0.3% (est +0.2%) and Average Workweek 33.9 (est 33.7). Consumer Credit 5.5B (est. 6B, prior 5.6B)
Non Farms labor report was high. The media spin? Strong employment data tempered optimism that the Fed will stop raising rates and eased fears of an economic slowdown. How did the herd react?
Dollar up BIG vs. Yen/Euro, gold unch, bonds, utilities, financials and interest rate sensitive got beat like a drum. Oil, materials, commodities, steel & paper up. 10 year note -25 ticks, yield +.105 @ 4.25%. Contra action: $ & oil & commodities up.
The dollar broke through its 200DMA and surged more than 1.0% today against the euro, biggest gain in six weeks.
Oil whipsaw continues: crude inventory 372M barrels at highest level since July 1999; traders cover short positions in crude oil futures heading into the weekend, futures prices +2.0% early, closing +0.26% @ 50.96.
Today's Sooey Attaboy!! award goes to the brown shoes on Wall Street for downgrading a slew of regional banks. Bank of New York (BK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy amid weakening trade volumes. North Fork Bancorp (NFB) cut to Neutral due to flat mortgage revenue and valuation.
Regions Financial (RF) cut to Sell from Neutral amid valuation concerns and second-half earnings pressure. WFC, BAC, USB and WB were weak today after Merrill Lynch trimmed its price targets on four of its Buy rated banks
Last Fri, two rumours, the RMB revalue and a big corporate bond deal (Sungard) , Tues, the FOMC omission, Thurs, GM & Ford debt downgraded to Junk. Today, a large non farms payroll increase.
Anyone see a pattern here? The bond market is getting whipsawed.
The 10-year note is having its largest weekly decline since March.
The market had a 555 Cinco de Mayo hangover which saw the major indexes drift sideways and turn down on lower volume. 3 of 10 sectors up. Yet, the small and mid caps hung in there.
The market performed well this week, internals appear to be on the mend, lagging tech is getting a bid and the indexes have run smack into their resistance levels.
We did not see a consolidation day this week. This increases the odds for next week that we will see multiple down days. The markets need another consolidation to make the base solid.
The perfect storm is brewing, higher oil, higher interest rates, treasury auction, options unwind. And the coup de gra will be the turbulence from Tuesday's Treasury Budget and Trade Deficit reports.
Monday probably sideways and split tape, last chance to sell into the bounce. Tues the auction starts and it will start getting bumpy. After the next two weeks, we could be looking to catch a nice ride up. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Support: DJIA 9900 ; SP500 1125 ; Nasdaq 1870; NDX 1375
Positive: tech, industrials, materials, software, hardware, networking, brokerage, biotech
Weak: financial, health care, energy, banks, retail, airline, drug, utility
52 Week HiLo: NYSE 84/28; Nasdaq 62/68; Amex 28/28
A/D Volume: NYSE 801/813, Nasdaq 957/539, Amex 54/142
Volume: NYSE 1.698B, Nasdaq 1.525B
The sidebar applets have been corrected.
Upcoming Notable reports:
MON: Wholesale Inventory
WEN: Treasury Budget & Trade Balance
THUR: Initial Claims, Retail Sales, (ex-auto)
FRI: Business Inventory, Export Prices(ex-ag), Import Prices(ex-oil), Michigan Sentiment Prelim
European (DAX +0.27%) & Asian markets (Nikkei 225 +1.66%) were up. Employment Situation 5.2% (est 5.3%, Mar 5.2%), Non Farm Payrolls 274K (est. 175-200k, Mar 110K; revised up to 146K); Hourly Earnings +0.3% (est +0.2%) and Average Workweek 33.9 (est 33.7). Consumer Credit 5.5B (est. 6B, prior 5.6B)
Non Farms labor report was high. The media spin? Strong employment data tempered optimism that the Fed will stop raising rates and eased fears of an economic slowdown. How did the herd react?
Dollar up BIG vs. Yen/Euro, gold unch, bonds, utilities, financials and interest rate sensitive got beat like a drum. Oil, materials, commodities, steel & paper up. 10 year note -25 ticks, yield +.105 @ 4.25%. Contra action: $ & oil & commodities up.
The dollar broke through its 200DMA and surged more than 1.0% today against the euro, biggest gain in six weeks.
Oil whipsaw continues: crude inventory 372M barrels at highest level since July 1999; traders cover short positions in crude oil futures heading into the weekend, futures prices +2.0% early, closing +0.26% @ 50.96.
Today's Sooey Attaboy!! award goes to the brown shoes on Wall Street for downgrading a slew of regional banks. Bank of New York (BK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy amid weakening trade volumes. North Fork Bancorp (NFB) cut to Neutral due to flat mortgage revenue and valuation.
Regions Financial (RF) cut to Sell from Neutral amid valuation concerns and second-half earnings pressure. WFC, BAC, USB and WB were weak today after Merrill Lynch trimmed its price targets on four of its Buy rated banks
Last Fri, two rumours, the RMB revalue and a big corporate bond deal (Sungard) , Tues, the FOMC omission, Thurs, GM & Ford debt downgraded to Junk. Today, a large non farms payroll increase.
Anyone see a pattern here? The bond market is getting whipsawed.
The 10-year note is having its largest weekly decline since March.
The market had a 555 Cinco de Mayo hangover which saw the major indexes drift sideways and turn down on lower volume. 3 of 10 sectors up. Yet, the small and mid caps hung in there.
The market performed well this week, internals appear to be on the mend, lagging tech is getting a bid and the indexes have run smack into their resistance levels.
We did not see a consolidation day this week. This increases the odds for next week that we will see multiple down days. The markets need another consolidation to make the base solid.
The perfect storm is brewing, higher oil, higher interest rates, treasury auction, options unwind. And the coup de gra will be the turbulence from Tuesday's Treasury Budget and Trade Deficit reports.
Monday probably sideways and split tape, last chance to sell into the bounce. Tues the auction starts and it will start getting bumpy. After the next two weeks, we could be looking to catch a nice ride up. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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