Market Soapbox 01/31/06
Resistance: DJIA 10950; SP500 1285; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1695
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news,Employment Cost +0.8% vs prior +0.8% staying steady and increasing slowly, Chicago PMI 58.5 vs prior 60.8, a reduction but still showing strength. Consumer Confidence 106.3 vs 103.8 getting back to pre hurricane levels.
From yesterdays Core PCE post : "We believe the Fed will bump again in March, and tomorrows statement will have the word "measured" removed, which means that the data will dictate and it could be more than 25bps."
FOMC Statement: "possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures. The Committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed." The word "measured" has been removed.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, last week +240. Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals.
Today, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals. This week DJIA -42, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +161, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +148.
DJTA., XAU, XOI, MID & RUT up. SOX, NDX & SP500 down. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng flat & Nikkei 225 up.
Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Biotech, Commodity & Healthcare up nicely. Tech, Consumer, Cyclical & Semis slapped down.
Dollar down vs. Yen 1.1666 & Euro 1.2190 , XAU & gold up @ 570.8, XOI up & crude down @ 67.92, CRB commodities down, unleaded -2%, natural gas -0.8%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.68%; 10 yr @ 4.52; 5 yr @ 4.46; 2yr @ 4.52; 6mo @ 4.54; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 1: Auto & Truck Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Index, EIA Crude; Feb 2: Initial Claims, Productivity; Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services.
Reporting Tues: Duke Energy, JDS Uniphase, JetBlue, Kobe Steel, Kubota, Matsushida, Mitsubishi, Pulte Homes, Roche, Sunoco, Boeing, Time Warner.
Monday: "The FOMC statement could bring consolidation... we are watching NDX 1730 and SP500 1285 as resistance on this latest upsurge, should we break to the upside on higher volume, we look to NDX 1795 as a climax."
Monday and Tuesday a small step down for the DJIA, and a bounce up was attempted as SP500 touched 1285 intraday. After the FOMC announcement, the indices herked and jerked leaving the DJIA bleeding into the close 60 points.
Google reported afterhours net income was below estimates, stock punished 16% in the first hour. Afterhours volume in the first hour: NAZ: 52M vs prior 22M; tomorrow gonna be a big down day for tech, NDX probably gaps down at least 17 points.
The market needs to decide which media spin it wants to believe, tame inflation means up and away or more rate hikes means time to drop down. I don't think many people are believing the tame inflation spin anymore.
From yesterdays Deja Vu post: "Tomorrow January 31, 2006 will be exactly 5 weeks since December 27, 2005, which is when the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2000" And in 2000 it took 5 weeks and 2 days to begin the topple from the peak after the yield curve inverted.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1695
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news,Employment Cost +0.8% vs prior +0.8% staying steady and increasing slowly, Chicago PMI 58.5 vs prior 60.8, a reduction but still showing strength. Consumer Confidence 106.3 vs 103.8 getting back to pre hurricane levels.
From yesterdays Core PCE post : "We believe the Fed will bump again in March, and tomorrows statement will have the word "measured" removed, which means that the data will dictate and it could be more than 25bps."
FOMC Statement: "possible increases in resource utilization as well as elevated energy prices have the potential to add to inflation pressures. The Committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed." The word "measured" has been removed.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, last week +240. Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals.
Today, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals. This week DJIA -42, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +161, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +148.
DJTA., XAU, XOI, MID & RUT up. SOX, NDX & SP500 down. CAC & DAX up, FTSE down, Hang Seng flat & Nikkei 225 up.
Sectors: Airlines, Gold Bugs, Biotech, Commodity & Healthcare up nicely. Tech, Consumer, Cyclical & Semis slapped down.
Dollar down vs. Yen 1.1666 & Euro 1.2190 , XAU & gold up @ 570.8, XOI up & crude down @ 67.92, CRB commodities down, unleaded -2%, natural gas -0.8%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.68%; 10 yr @ 4.52; 5 yr @ 4.46; 2yr @ 4.52; 6mo @ 4.54; 3mo @ 4.44. 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 1: Auto & Truck Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Index, EIA Crude; Feb 2: Initial Claims, Productivity; Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services.
Reporting Tues: Duke Energy, JDS Uniphase, JetBlue, Kobe Steel, Kubota, Matsushida, Mitsubishi, Pulte Homes, Roche, Sunoco, Boeing, Time Warner.
Monday: "The FOMC statement could bring consolidation... we are watching NDX 1730 and SP500 1285 as resistance on this latest upsurge, should we break to the upside on higher volume, we look to NDX 1795 as a climax."
Monday and Tuesday a small step down for the DJIA, and a bounce up was attempted as SP500 touched 1285 intraday. After the FOMC announcement, the indices herked and jerked leaving the DJIA bleeding into the close 60 points.
Google reported afterhours net income was below estimates, stock punished 16% in the first hour. Afterhours volume in the first hour: NAZ: 52M vs prior 22M; tomorrow gonna be a big down day for tech, NDX probably gaps down at least 17 points.
The market needs to decide which media spin it wants to believe, tame inflation means up and away or more rate hikes means time to drop down. I don't think many people are believing the tame inflation spin anymore.
From yesterdays Deja Vu post: "Tomorrow January 31, 2006 will be exactly 5 weeks since December 27, 2005, which is when the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2000" And in 2000 it took 5 weeks and 2 days to begin the topple from the peak after the yield curve inverted.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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