Market Soapbox Groundhog Day 02/02/06
Resistance: DJIA 10950; SP500 1285; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1265; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1690
Volume:
NYSE +417M -1.34B HI 140 LO 35
NAZ +670M - 1.5B HI 160 LO 28
AMEX +25M - 55M HI 47 LO 7
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, initial claims 273K vs prior 284K; jobless claims at a 5.5 year low. Q4 productivity @ -0.6% vs prior +4.1% the 1st decline since the 2001 recession. More on this in another post.
Tyco, Comcast, St Paul Travelers and Medimmune all disappointed. Afterhours Amazon bombed. Crude pulled back under 65 sinking the energy sector. Aside from productivity related inflation fears, terrorist fears were stoked today as an increase in alert level by homeland security was rumored.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, 1 week +240.
Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals. Tues, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals Wen, DJIA +89 on higher volume and decent internals.
Today, Punxsutawney Phil (not to be confused with Dr. Phil) cast his shadow on the market with AUTHORITY, a broad based sell off DJIA -102 on higher volume with horrible internals. This week DJIA -55, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +148, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +135.
ALL major indices SLAMMED DOWN BIG. CAC, DAX & FTSE down BIG, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up. Sectors: Only Airlines were up because of the crude pullback, everything else slapped down silly.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1780 & Euro 1.2132 , XAU down & gold up @ 572.7, XOI & crude down -3% @ 64.68, CRB commodities down, unleaded -3.7%, natural gas -4.3% (10% in 2 days).
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.69%; 10 yr @ 4.56; 5 yr @ 4.50; 2yr @ 4.58; 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services. Reporting Fri: British Air, Maytag, Ryder, Volvo, Wendy's, Weyerhaeuser.
Yesterday: "The equities market is completely ignoring inflation potentials while the bond market is starting to warn of the potential, making for quite the dichotomy."
Today the market got a whiff of reality with inflation smelling salts which brought it out of its delusional state. As we have been saying all along, more to come and far beyond what most expect.
"All major indices are at or just below key upwards resistance and the markets are at a critical crossroad." Yesterday they touched the ceiling and today fell back to the floor. SOX, RUT, DJTA & MID resting on 15DMA. NAZ, DJIA, SP500 resting on 45 DMA. NDX & DJUA plunged through 45 DMA.
"we are very wary of a potential selloff by Friday. This event would signal, get out of the way for next weeks options unwind and bond auctions as market liquidity dries up while profits are taken."
This was a "weak" week with yesterdays monthly fund inflows propping the DJIA up while the SP500, MID & RUT were suspiciously weak. Today, profit taking and no hanging in over the weekend.
NOT good signs for next week. Tomorrow IF non farms payroll is 200K vs prior 108K this would kick the equities and bond markets down some more.
Remember its been 5 weeks and 2 days since the Yield Curve Inverted on 12/27/05. The last time this occured 02/02/00, 5 weeks and 2 days later 03/10/00.
Are we waving goodbye to our final peak on the MID yesterday at 785? Or will we bounce and rally until March 10? Tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel...
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1265; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1690
Volume:
NYSE +417M -1.34B HI 140 LO 35
NAZ +670M - 1.5B HI 160 LO 28
AMEX +25M - 55M HI 47 LO 7
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, initial claims 273K vs prior 284K; jobless claims at a 5.5 year low. Q4 productivity @ -0.6% vs prior +4.1% the 1st decline since the 2001 recession. More on this in another post.
Tyco, Comcast, St Paul Travelers and Medimmune all disappointed. Afterhours Amazon bombed. Crude pulled back under 65 sinking the energy sector. Aside from productivity related inflation fears, terrorist fears were stoked today as an increase in alert level by homeland security was rumored.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, 1 week +240.
Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals. Tues, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals Wen, DJIA +89 on higher volume and decent internals.
Today, Punxsutawney Phil (not to be confused with Dr. Phil) cast his shadow on the market with AUTHORITY, a broad based sell off DJIA -102 on higher volume with horrible internals. This week DJIA -55, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +148, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +135.
ALL major indices SLAMMED DOWN BIG. CAC, DAX & FTSE down BIG, Hang Seng down & Nikkei 225 up. Sectors: Only Airlines were up because of the crude pullback, everything else slapped down silly.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1780 & Euro 1.2132 , XAU down & gold up @ 572.7, XOI & crude down -3% @ 64.68, CRB commodities down, unleaded -3.7%, natural gas -4.3% (10% in 2 days).
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.69%; 10 yr @ 4.56; 5 yr @ 4.50; 2yr @ 4.58; 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services. Reporting Fri: British Air, Maytag, Ryder, Volvo, Wendy's, Weyerhaeuser.
Yesterday: "The equities market is completely ignoring inflation potentials while the bond market is starting to warn of the potential, making for quite the dichotomy."
Today the market got a whiff of reality with inflation smelling salts which brought it out of its delusional state. As we have been saying all along, more to come and far beyond what most expect.
"All major indices are at or just below key upwards resistance and the markets are at a critical crossroad." Yesterday they touched the ceiling and today fell back to the floor. SOX, RUT, DJTA & MID resting on 15DMA. NAZ, DJIA, SP500 resting on 45 DMA. NDX & DJUA plunged through 45 DMA.
"we are very wary of a potential selloff by Friday. This event would signal, get out of the way for next weeks options unwind and bond auctions as market liquidity dries up while profits are taken."
This was a "weak" week with yesterdays monthly fund inflows propping the DJIA up while the SP500, MID & RUT were suspiciously weak. Today, profit taking and no hanging in over the weekend.
NOT good signs for next week. Tomorrow IF non farms payroll is 200K vs prior 108K this would kick the equities and bond markets down some more.
Remember its been 5 weeks and 2 days since the Yield Curve Inverted on 12/27/05. The last time this occured 02/02/00, 5 weeks and 2 days later 03/10/00.
Are we waving goodbye to our final peak on the MID yesterday at 785? Or will we bounce and rally until March 10? Tune in tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel...
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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