Non Farms Payroll Job Creation

This is an update of our last missive on Non Farms Job Creation.

We will use the latest adjusted period which is October 2005, rather than the projected Nov & Dec numbers, all numbers are Millions and are taken from actual BLS Data.

Non Farm Payroll

Oct 2005 134.055 M
Jan 2001 132.454 M

For an 1.2% increase of 1.601 M over 58 months, averaging 27,603 new jobs per month. This makes last months horrible 108,000 Non Farms increase sound pretty good eh?

Government Sector Jobs

Jan 2001 20.832 M
Oct 2005 21.850 M

For an increase of 1.018 M over 58 months, averaging 17,551 new government jobs per month.

Total Non Farms increase +1.601 M minus Government increase +1.018 M, giving an increase of 0.583 M new private jobs over 58 months for an average of 10,051 new private industry jobs created per month.

WOW!! 10,000 new jobs a month from the private sector and the ratio of new jobs created is 36% private and 64% government. Thats what I call steppin up to the plate.

Unemployed persons

Jan 2001 - 6.801 M
Jan 2005 - 7.418 M

for a 9% increase of 0.617 M unemployed persons over the 58 month period.

Noninstitutional civilian population 16 & older

Jan 2001 215.092 M
Oct 2005 226.959 M

For a 5.5% increase of 11.867 M persons over the period.

To summarize the 58 month period, a 9% increase in unemployed persons; a 5.5% increase in the employable population; a 1.2% increase in total jobs; and a job growth rate of 27,603 jobs per month (64% of which are government jobs).

Not to rub salt in the wound, but to keep pace with workforce population growth at the current employment population ratio of 62.8% would have required the creation of 7.45M jobs over the period, factoring in the 1.6M jobs actually created leaves us 5.85M jobs short.

Now thats what I call "real" job creation.