Market Soapbox 02/01/06
Resistance: DJIA 10950; SP500 1285; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1695
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, afterhours Tues. Google fell from 432 to a low of 360, today a bounce back to 398. The NDX gap down was 20 points, but premarket bounce cut this in half to 10. Economic reports in a separate post.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, last week +240.
Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals. Tues, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals
Today, DJIA +89 on higher volume and decent internals. This week DJIA +47, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +250, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +237.
SOX & RUT up, SP500 & MID weak, DJTA, XAU & XOI down. CAC, DAX & FTSE up nicely, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Sectors: Airlines, Natural Gas, Oil, Transports, Commodity beat down. Healthcare, Tech, Semis, Tobacco, Pharma, Telecom, Networking, Gold Bugs & Biotech up nicely.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1812 & Euro 1.2053 , XAU & gold down @ 569.4, XOI & crude down -2% @ 66.56, CRB commodities down, unleaded -4.23%, natural gas -5.32%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.71%; 10 yr @ 4.56; 5 yr @ 4.50; 2yr @ 4.58; 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 2: Initial Claims, Productivity; Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services.
Reporting Thurs: Amazon, Apache, Avon, Clorox, Comcast, CVS, Deutsche Bank, Gateway, Goodrich, Hitachi, Matsushita Electric, NTT, Nissan, Raytheon, Royal Caribbean, Royal Dutch Shell, Schick, St. Paul Travelers, Starwood Hotels, Tesoro, Tyco, Whirlpool
Tuesday: "The market needs to decide which media spin it wants to believe, tame inflation means up and away or more rate hikes means time to drop down for more consolidation."
Allstate, ADM, Boeing, Chubb, Time Warner & Duke Energy did well, Google, Valero, Altria, JetBlue, Phelps Dodge & Goodrich did not.
The equities market is completely ignoring inflation potentials while the bond market is starting to warn of the potential, making for quite the dichotomy.
The MID hit 784.48 intraday, closing along with the RUT at all time highs. The 52 week hi-lo on the NYSE is 10 to 1. All major indices are at or just below key upwards resistance and the markets are at a critical crossroad.
Breaking out to the upside on higher volume would indicate up and away to 1795 NDX probably by March 10. Perhaps a little more exhuberance tomorrow, but we are very wary of a potential selloff by Friday.
This event would signal, get out of the way for next weeks options unwind and bond auctions as market liquidity dries up while profits are taken. Only time will tell which direction we are headed in.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10850; SP500 1270; Nasdaq 2265; NDX 1695
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, afterhours Tues. Google fell from 432 to a low of 360, today a bounce back to 398. The NDX gap down was 20 points, but premarket bounce cut this in half to 10. Economic reports in a separate post.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, last week +240.
Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals. Tues, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals
Today, DJIA +89 on higher volume and decent internals. This week DJIA +47, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +250, over the last 4 weeks DJIA +237.
SOX & RUT up, SP500 & MID weak, DJTA, XAU & XOI down. CAC, DAX & FTSE up nicely, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down.
Sectors: Airlines, Natural Gas, Oil, Transports, Commodity beat down. Healthcare, Tech, Semis, Tobacco, Pharma, Telecom, Networking, Gold Bugs & Biotech up nicely.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1812 & Euro 1.2053 , XAU & gold down @ 569.4, XOI & crude down -2% @ 66.56, CRB commodities down, unleaded -4.23%, natural gas -5.32%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds down with the 30 yr yield rising @ 4.71%; 10 yr @ 4.56; 5 yr @ 4.50; 2yr @ 4.58; 2yr above the 10 yr.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 2: Initial Claims, Productivity; Feb 3: Non Farm Payroll, Unemployment, Mich Sentiment, Factory Orders, ISM Services.
Reporting Thurs: Amazon, Apache, Avon, Clorox, Comcast, CVS, Deutsche Bank, Gateway, Goodrich, Hitachi, Matsushita Electric, NTT, Nissan, Raytheon, Royal Caribbean, Royal Dutch Shell, Schick, St. Paul Travelers, Starwood Hotels, Tesoro, Tyco, Whirlpool
Tuesday: "The market needs to decide which media spin it wants to believe, tame inflation means up and away or more rate hikes means time to drop down for more consolidation."
Allstate, ADM, Boeing, Chubb, Time Warner & Duke Energy did well, Google, Valero, Altria, JetBlue, Phelps Dodge & Goodrich did not.
The equities market is completely ignoring inflation potentials while the bond market is starting to warn of the potential, making for quite the dichotomy.
The MID hit 784.48 intraday, closing along with the RUT at all time highs. The 52 week hi-lo on the NYSE is 10 to 1. All major indices are at or just below key upwards resistance and the markets are at a critical crossroad.
Breaking out to the upside on higher volume would indicate up and away to 1795 NDX probably by March 10. Perhaps a little more exhuberance tomorrow, but we are very wary of a potential selloff by Friday.
This event would signal, get out of the way for next weeks options unwind and bond auctions as market liquidity dries up while profits are taken. Only time will tell which direction we are headed in.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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