Market Soapbox 02/03/06
Resistance: DJIA 10950; SP500 1285; Nasdaq 2315; NDX 1730
Support: DJIA 10775; SP500 1260; Nasdaq 2255; NDX 1660
Volume:
NYSE +584M -1.1B Total 1.7B Hi 50 Lo 24
NAZ +599M - 1.6B Total 2.1B Hi 82 Lo 27
AMEX +31M - 53M Total 89M Hi 36 Lo 7
BBOTC +5.3B -1B Total 7.5B Hi 149 Lo 87
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Amazon got clubbed for 10% on poor numbers.
Non Farm Payroll +193K vs prior +108K; not the 250K est. but enough to spark inflation fears. See today's other posting for a complete run down on the bond market and economic indicators.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, 1 week +240.
Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals. Tues, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals Wen, DJIA +89 on higher volume and decent internals. Thurs, a broad based sell off DJIA -102 on higher volume with horrible internals.
Today, further selloff and weakness, DJIA -58 on slightly less volume with rancid internals. This week DJIA -113, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +90, over the last 5 weeks DJIA +75.
NDX, NAZ, SOX , XAU, XOI down BIG. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down. Sectors: Everything down except Healthcare & Oil Services.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1888 & Euro 1.20190 , XAU & gold down @ 567.4, XOI down & crude up +1% @ 65.37, CRB commodities up, natural gas +3.2%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.63%; 10 yr @ 4.53; 5 yr @ 4.49; 2yr @ 4.58; 6mo @ 4.62; 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr and DANGEROUSLY close to the 30yr 5bps.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 7: Consumer Credit; Feb 8: EIA Inventories; Feb 9: Initial Claims, Wholesale Inventories; Feb 10: Trade Balance, Treasury Budget.
Reporting Mon: Anadarko, 1st Financial, FMC, GoldKist, Hasbro, Humana, Louisiana Pacific, Prestige Brands, StarGas, Toyota, Walt Disnet, Winn Dixie, Yum Brands.
Yesterday: "Tomorrow IF non farms payroll is 200K vs prior 108K this would kick the equities and bond markets down some more."
It did, bonds initally sold off pushing the 10 year to 4.62 but then rallied to 4.53 on short covering. Sniff, sniff.
"SOX, RUT, DJTA & MID resting on 15DMA. NAZ, DJIA, SP500 resting on 45 DMA. NDX & DJUA plunged through 45 DMA."
Today further slippage, SOX, RUT, DJTA & MID firmly resting on 15DMA . DJIA, SP500 & NAZ fell through and hanging on to 45DMA, NDX & DJUA let go and free falling from 45DMA.
"get out of the way for next weeks options unwind and bond auctions as market liquidity dries up while profits are taken." A distinct possibility for next week, given the current down trend.
The caveat, if indirect bidders (foreign central banks) step up on bonds during the auctions, the PPT might be able to prop up equities and cause a slight updraft.
If indirect bidders don't step up, the primary dealers will be stuck buying bonds with little reserve liquidity to save a falling equities market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
Support: DJIA 10775; SP500 1260; Nasdaq 2255; NDX 1660
Volume:
NYSE +584M -1.1B Total 1.7B Hi 50 Lo 24
NAZ +599M - 1.6B Total 2.1B Hi 82 Lo 27
AMEX +31M - 53M Total 89M Hi 36 Lo 7
BBOTC +5.3B -1B Total 7.5B Hi 149 Lo 87
In our top story tonight, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is STILL dead. In other news, Amazon got clubbed for 10% on poor numbers.
Non Farm Payroll +193K vs prior +108K; not the 250K est. but enough to spark inflation fears. See today's other posting for a complete run down on the bond market and economic indicators.
Recent DJIA History: 19 weeks ago, -270 breaking key support, 18 weeks +148, 17 weeks -281, 16 weeks -6, 15 weeks -77, 5 week loss -486. 14 weeks recovery begins +186, 13 weeks +128, 12 weeks +154, 11 weeks +79, 10 weeks +165, 5 week gain +712.
9 weeks -53, 8 weeks -99, 7 weeks +99, 6 weeks +8. 5 weeks -168, 5 week loss -213. 4 weeks +242 on a broadbased new year buy in, 3 weeks +0, 2 weeks -292, 1 week +240.
Mon, DJIA -7 as the energy sector kept the market propped up on lower volume with midlin internals. Tues, DJIA -35 on higher volume and midlin internals Wen, DJIA +89 on higher volume and decent internals. Thurs, a broad based sell off DJIA -102 on higher volume with horrible internals.
Today, further selloff and weakness, DJIA -58 on slightly less volume with rancid internals. This week DJIA -113, over the last 19 weeks DJIA +90, over the last 5 weeks DJIA +75.
NDX, NAZ, SOX , XAU, XOI down BIG. CAC, DAX & FTSE up, Hang Seng & Nikkei 225 down. Sectors: Everything down except Healthcare & Oil Services.
Dollar up vs. Yen 1.1888 & Euro 1.20190 , XAU & gold down @ 567.4, XOI down & crude up +1% @ 65.37, CRB commodities up, natural gas +3.2%.
Yield curve INVERTED bonds up with the 30 yr yield falling @ 4.63%; 10 yr @ 4.53; 5 yr @ 4.49; 2yr @ 4.58; 6mo @ 4.62; 6mo & 2yr above the 10 yr and DANGEROUSLY close to the 30yr 5bps.
Looking ahead at potential market influences: Feb 7: Consumer Credit; Feb 8: EIA Inventories; Feb 9: Initial Claims, Wholesale Inventories; Feb 10: Trade Balance, Treasury Budget.
Reporting Mon: Anadarko, 1st Financial, FMC, GoldKist, Hasbro, Humana, Louisiana Pacific, Prestige Brands, StarGas, Toyota, Walt Disnet, Winn Dixie, Yum Brands.
Yesterday: "Tomorrow IF non farms payroll is 200K vs prior 108K this would kick the equities and bond markets down some more."
It did, bonds initally sold off pushing the 10 year to 4.62 but then rallied to 4.53 on short covering. Sniff, sniff.
"SOX, RUT, DJTA & MID resting on 15DMA. NAZ, DJIA, SP500 resting on 45 DMA. NDX & DJUA plunged through 45 DMA."
Today further slippage, SOX, RUT, DJTA & MID firmly resting on 15DMA . DJIA, SP500 & NAZ fell through and hanging on to 45DMA, NDX & DJUA let go and free falling from 45DMA.
"get out of the way for next weeks options unwind and bond auctions as market liquidity dries up while profits are taken." A distinct possibility for next week, given the current down trend.
The caveat, if indirect bidders (foreign central banks) step up on bonds during the auctions, the PPT might be able to prop up equities and cause a slight updraft.
If indirect bidders don't step up, the primary dealers will be stuck buying bonds with little reserve liquidity to save a falling equities market.
Keep it tween da ditches, we take it day by day and keep our eyes peeled to the sky, because it could be a name brand that pancakes us. Just my opinion, I could be wrong, this is The Nattering Naybob and your NOT!!!
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