Super Bowl Prediction
It is upon us, Super Sunday...
Regular Season Stats
Pittsburgh
Defense Overall 4th , 3rd rush, 16th pass, 3rd sacks (47)
Offense Overall 16th, 5th rush, 24th pass
Seattle
Defense Overall 17th, 5th rush, 25th pass, 1st sacks (50)
Offense Overall 2nd, 3rd rush, 13th pass
Pittsburgh Offense vs Seattle Defense
The Steelers will follow their recent script for success by passing effectively early against the Seahawks weak pass defense(25th).
Pittsburgh's pass offense(24th) exposed weak pass defenses at #3 seed Cincinnati, #1 Indianapolis & #2 Denver and is potent enough to cause Seattle plenty of trouble.
Offensive coordinator Whisenhunt has the Steelers balanced between run and pass of late. Play action, quick outs, traps, draws and screen passes will keep Seattle's young and aggressive defense (1st sacks 50) honest and at bay. Note: the Seahawks only have 4 sacks in two playoff games.
Seattle will be too spread by the pass to pack 7 or 8 in the box against the pounding Pittsburgh rushing attack (5th). Seattle's run defense (5th) is highly ranked because opponents are too busy passing against the Seahawk's.
Using the pass effectively will open up the Steeler running game and allow Pittsburgh to keep the Seattle offense (2nd overall) off the field.
The Steeler's need to keep the young Seahawk defense (17th overall) on the field for at least 35 minutes and slowly wear them down.
Seattle Offense vs Pittsburgh Defense
Seattles offense (2nd overall) likes to run the ball North to South around the tackles, especially all world Walter Jones, which works against slower defenses.
The Seahawks are very effective at controlling the ball, when the run works, converting 81% of their short yardage situations this year where the average is 64%.
Against Pittsburgh's 3-4 defense (4th overall) and blindingly fast pursuit, the outside strategy won't work. Pittsburgh's run defense (3rd) with NT Casey Hampton is also very effective against the inside run. Hampton only has 25 tackles, because he is usually double teamed.
Seattle will have to be sucessful on inside traps to control the ball or they will have to fall back on the passing game. Seattle's passing game (13th) could be put to the test against the Steeler pass defense (16th) and disguised blitzing schemes of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau.
On the road in the playoffs, Pittsburgh's defense (3rd sacks - 47) held the potent Cincinnati (6th), Indianapolis (3rd) and Denver (5th) offenses to 17, 18 and 17 points respectively. Indy and Denver were stiffled with only 3 points each in the first half.
Interesting Stuff
Away from home Seattle 5-3 struggled with weak foes St. Louis, San Francisco & Tennessee, while losing to Jacksonville and Washington.
Pittsburgh 9-2 on the road, lost to Baltimore and Indy during their 3 game losing streak. Since, they have run off 7 straight including 3 road playoff wins.
During the regular season, on the road, Pittsburgh allowed a league low 7 touchdowns in 8 games. Pittsburgh's SS Polamalu Probable and HB Parker Questionable are nicked up coming in.
Seattle has protected the ball well with a league low 17 turnovers and defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes (John Marshall substituting) compensates for a weak zone secondary and youthful defense by blitzing often.
In the last 5 regular season games: the Seahawk's gave up 1 fumble, 2 interceptions and 8 sacks. The defense forced 6 interceptions, 6 fumbles and 13 sacks.
Pittsburgh was a little sloppy in the last 5 regular season games: giving up 3 fumbles, 5 interceptions and 9 sacks. The defense forced 2 interceptions, 4 fumbles and had 15 sacks.
In 3 playoff games: Pittsburgh reversed the trend by giving up 1 fumble, 1 interception and 5 sacks. The defense has collected a playoff leading 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles and 12 sacks.
In 2 playoff games, Seattle got sloppy by giving up 3 fumbles, but no interceptions and only 2 sacks. The defense collected 2 fumbles and 3 interceptions on only 4 sacks.
Since week 12 Pittsburgh's offense has averaged 29 points per game and Seattle's defense has allowed 12 points per game.
Game film of Dallas at Seattle reveals that Dallas held the ball for 35 minutes while out rushing the Seahawks 164 to 72 on 39 attempts while only throwing 24 times. Seattle had 42 pass attempts and only 25 minutes of possesion.
Seattle was held to 3 points, until the last 40 seconds. Seattle was fortunate to win this game in miraculous style. Rest assured that Steeler head coach Bill Cowher has gone over this film with a fine tooth comb. Why?
This was the only time all year that Seattle faced a fast, aggressive 3-4 defense. Sunday they will see an even faster and better Blitzburgh 3-4 defense on a not so neutral field as Detroit is only a 4.5 hour drive from Pittsburgh.
The Last Pick
So far vs the spread; Wild Card 4-0; Divisionals 1-3; Championships 1-1, which puts us at 6-4 or 60%. I have ridden the Pittsburgh Pony for 3-0 vs the spread and been 0-2 with Seattle, so something has gotta give this Sunday.
Holding turnover ratios equal, we believe Seattle can be competitive in this game. But they will have to play mistake free ball and run effectively. We are still suspicious of the Seahawks level of competition in the NFC West this year.
In their 1st playoff game, unable to run on the Redskins, Seattle's performance was sloppy and unimpressive. In the 34-14 whitewashing of Carolina they redeemed themselves as Shaun Alexander rushed for 135 yards.
We believe the Pittsburgh defense could stop the Seahawk rushing attack, forcing Seattle to throw. Seattle has not seen this kind of defensive pressure all year.
The Pittsburgh 3-4 defense could hassel Hasselbeck into mistakes, much like they did to Kitna, Manning and Plummer. QB Hasselbeck has not thrown an interception in 5 games.
On the other side, Pittsburgh could open up the running game with the passing game and control the rock and the clock while wearing down the Seahawk defense.
Pittsburgh is on an impressive roll from both sides of the ball and the extra week off has rested away their road weariness. If either team loses the turnover battle by 2 or more, a blowout could result.
3 of the last 4 Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal. We are sticking with the sounder defense and the horse that got us to the dance, Pittsburgh to cover -3.5, but Seattle to be respectable, Final Score 30-17.
Regular Season Stats
Pittsburgh
Defense Overall 4th , 3rd rush, 16th pass, 3rd sacks (47)
Offense Overall 16th, 5th rush, 24th pass
Seattle
Defense Overall 17th, 5th rush, 25th pass, 1st sacks (50)
Offense Overall 2nd, 3rd rush, 13th pass
Pittsburgh Offense vs Seattle Defense
The Steelers will follow their recent script for success by passing effectively early against the Seahawks weak pass defense(25th).
Pittsburgh's pass offense(24th) exposed weak pass defenses at #3 seed Cincinnati, #1 Indianapolis & #2 Denver and is potent enough to cause Seattle plenty of trouble.
Offensive coordinator Whisenhunt has the Steelers balanced between run and pass of late. Play action, quick outs, traps, draws and screen passes will keep Seattle's young and aggressive defense (1st sacks 50) honest and at bay. Note: the Seahawks only have 4 sacks in two playoff games.
Seattle will be too spread by the pass to pack 7 or 8 in the box against the pounding Pittsburgh rushing attack (5th). Seattle's run defense (5th) is highly ranked because opponents are too busy passing against the Seahawk's.
Using the pass effectively will open up the Steeler running game and allow Pittsburgh to keep the Seattle offense (2nd overall) off the field.
The Steeler's need to keep the young Seahawk defense (17th overall) on the field for at least 35 minutes and slowly wear them down.
Seattle Offense vs Pittsburgh Defense
Seattles offense (2nd overall) likes to run the ball North to South around the tackles, especially all world Walter Jones, which works against slower defenses.
The Seahawks are very effective at controlling the ball, when the run works, converting 81% of their short yardage situations this year where the average is 64%.
Against Pittsburgh's 3-4 defense (4th overall) and blindingly fast pursuit, the outside strategy won't work. Pittsburgh's run defense (3rd) with NT Casey Hampton is also very effective against the inside run. Hampton only has 25 tackles, because he is usually double teamed.
Seattle will have to be sucessful on inside traps to control the ball or they will have to fall back on the passing game. Seattle's passing game (13th) could be put to the test against the Steeler pass defense (16th) and disguised blitzing schemes of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau.
On the road in the playoffs, Pittsburgh's defense (3rd sacks - 47) held the potent Cincinnati (6th), Indianapolis (3rd) and Denver (5th) offenses to 17, 18 and 17 points respectively. Indy and Denver were stiffled with only 3 points each in the first half.
Interesting Stuff
Away from home Seattle 5-3 struggled with weak foes St. Louis, San Francisco & Tennessee, while losing to Jacksonville and Washington.
Pittsburgh 9-2 on the road, lost to Baltimore and Indy during their 3 game losing streak. Since, they have run off 7 straight including 3 road playoff wins.
During the regular season, on the road, Pittsburgh allowed a league low 7 touchdowns in 8 games. Pittsburgh's SS Polamalu Probable and HB Parker Questionable are nicked up coming in.
Seattle has protected the ball well with a league low 17 turnovers and defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes (John Marshall substituting) compensates for a weak zone secondary and youthful defense by blitzing often.
In the last 5 regular season games: the Seahawk's gave up 1 fumble, 2 interceptions and 8 sacks. The defense forced 6 interceptions, 6 fumbles and 13 sacks.
Pittsburgh was a little sloppy in the last 5 regular season games: giving up 3 fumbles, 5 interceptions and 9 sacks. The defense forced 2 interceptions, 4 fumbles and had 15 sacks.
In 3 playoff games: Pittsburgh reversed the trend by giving up 1 fumble, 1 interception and 5 sacks. The defense has collected a playoff leading 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles and 12 sacks.
In 2 playoff games, Seattle got sloppy by giving up 3 fumbles, but no interceptions and only 2 sacks. The defense collected 2 fumbles and 3 interceptions on only 4 sacks.
Since week 12 Pittsburgh's offense has averaged 29 points per game and Seattle's defense has allowed 12 points per game.
Game film of Dallas at Seattle reveals that Dallas held the ball for 35 minutes while out rushing the Seahawks 164 to 72 on 39 attempts while only throwing 24 times. Seattle had 42 pass attempts and only 25 minutes of possesion.
Seattle was held to 3 points, until the last 40 seconds. Seattle was fortunate to win this game in miraculous style. Rest assured that Steeler head coach Bill Cowher has gone over this film with a fine tooth comb. Why?
This was the only time all year that Seattle faced a fast, aggressive 3-4 defense. Sunday they will see an even faster and better Blitzburgh 3-4 defense on a not so neutral field as Detroit is only a 4.5 hour drive from Pittsburgh.
The Last Pick
So far vs the spread; Wild Card 4-0; Divisionals 1-3; Championships 1-1, which puts us at 6-4 or 60%. I have ridden the Pittsburgh Pony for 3-0 vs the spread and been 0-2 with Seattle, so something has gotta give this Sunday.
Holding turnover ratios equal, we believe Seattle can be competitive in this game. But they will have to play mistake free ball and run effectively. We are still suspicious of the Seahawks level of competition in the NFC West this year.
In their 1st playoff game, unable to run on the Redskins, Seattle's performance was sloppy and unimpressive. In the 34-14 whitewashing of Carolina they redeemed themselves as Shaun Alexander rushed for 135 yards.
We believe the Pittsburgh defense could stop the Seahawk rushing attack, forcing Seattle to throw. Seattle has not seen this kind of defensive pressure all year.
The Pittsburgh 3-4 defense could hassel Hasselbeck into mistakes, much like they did to Kitna, Manning and Plummer. QB Hasselbeck has not thrown an interception in 5 games.
On the other side, Pittsburgh could open up the running game with the passing game and control the rock and the clock while wearing down the Seahawk defense.
Pittsburgh is on an impressive roll from both sides of the ball and the extra week off has rested away their road weariness. If either team loses the turnover battle by 2 or more, a blowout could result.
3 of the last 4 Super Bowls have been decided by a field goal. We are sticking with the sounder defense and the horse that got us to the dance, Pittsburgh to cover -3.5, but Seattle to be respectable, Final Score 30-17.
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