Durable Orders; Initial Claims; New Home Sales
Summary: Durable goods orders 3rd straight monthly decline.
Initial claims get a reprieve but long term unemployment worsens.
New home sales plummet to a 17 year low with the largest median price decline in the last 40 years.
Durable Orders Mar -0.3% vs prior -0.9% Full Report
Inside the number: 3rd consecutive decline. Shipments -0.4%; Capital goods -0.9%;
Non defense capital goods "more than estimated" +1.5%; on Non defense aircraft +5.5%;upon further review: non defense capital goods ex aircraft FLAT.
Initial Claims 04/19 -33K 342K vs prior 375K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up +3K. 4 week MA -7.25K at 369.5K.
Continuing unemployment -65K at 2.934M; 4 week MA +20.5K at 2.959M. See states with increase >1K for the bleed from housing into other sectors.
New Home Sales Mar -8.5% at 526K vs prior 575K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down -15K. Declining 13 of 15 months. Yoy: -36.6%. Ytd -33.2%; Inventory +7.8%; 11 months supply; Yoy +32.5%
YTD NE -40.9%; NW -49; S -28.9; West -30.2%. Median Price Yoy -13.3%. Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase:
"This blows away any hope that things are stabilizing in housing.
It's a negative for growth and for the economy, and it's going to persist into the second half of the year."
The Nattering One muses... Get ready for the next ride down as the bottom is NOWHERE in sight.
What amuses me is the media's spin that this is somehow, "unexpected'. DUH! Further...
the laughable spin that somehow, durable orders & initial claims are "signaling" the end of rate cuts. What are these guys smokin?
Initial claims get a reprieve but long term unemployment worsens.
New home sales plummet to a 17 year low with the largest median price decline in the last 40 years.
Durable Orders Mar -0.3% vs prior -0.9% Full Report
Inside the number: 3rd consecutive decline. Shipments -0.4%; Capital goods -0.9%;
Non defense capital goods "more than estimated" +1.5%; on Non defense aircraft +5.5%;upon further review: non defense capital goods ex aircraft FLAT.
Initial Claims 04/19 -33K 342K vs prior 375K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised up +3K. 4 week MA -7.25K at 369.5K.
Continuing unemployment -65K at 2.934M; 4 week MA +20.5K at 2.959M. See states with increase >1K for the bleed from housing into other sectors.
New Home Sales Mar -8.5% at 526K vs prior 575K Full Report
Inside the number: Prior revised down -15K. Declining 13 of 15 months. Yoy: -36.6%. Ytd -33.2%; Inventory +7.8%; 11 months supply; Yoy +32.5%
YTD NE -40.9%; NW -49; S -28.9; West -30.2%. Median Price Yoy -13.3%. Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase:
"This blows away any hope that things are stabilizing in housing.
It's a negative for growth and for the economy, and it's going to persist into the second half of the year."
The Nattering One muses... Get ready for the next ride down as the bottom is NOWHERE in sight.
What amuses me is the media's spin that this is somehow, "unexpected'. DUH! Further...
the laughable spin that somehow, durable orders & initial claims are "signaling" the end of rate cuts. What are these guys smokin?
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