Market Observations 04/25/08

Resistance: DJIA 12970 (350DMA); SP500 1405 (500DMA); NAZ 2450 (4000DMA); NDX 1950 (250DMA)

Support: DJIA 12670 (450DMA); SP500 1370 (650DMA); NAZ 2385 (650DMA); NDX 1885 (400DMA)

SP500 open 1388, dive to 1379, bounce to close 1398. NDX open 1923, dive to 1894, bounce to close 1918.

THU: SP500 topped 1396 today, by a hair, then fell fast and furious to close. 4 times failing at 1400. Today back knocking at the door.

MON: I sense a downdraft coming THURS or FRI at perhaps NDX 1950. It did THU at 1941.

THU: Perhaps Microsoft will disappoint afterhours and more so, the Fed on WEN. Microsoft did, will the Fed?

Range bound: magic line support at SP500 1370, NDX 1885; resistance at SP500 1405; NDX 1950

All time low: $1.60 vs €1; $ biggest bounce in 2 yrs vs € on smoke n mirrors. All time high: crude $120.

2 year bond price crushed yield +128 basis points. PG fell from 70.68 to 66.41 sitting on its 250DMA.

What do these four things tell you? A possible end to the rally since 03/17.

Fee, Phi, Fo, Fum, I smell consolidation on a Fed pause or 25 bps cut.

Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.