Market Soapbox 04/22/08
TUE, followthrough, DJIA -105 on light volume with ugly internals. All DOWN cept XOI.
Bonds up 10 yr yield -1bps 3.71; $ down vs 1.5996€ & vs 102.98y; WTI +1.6% $119.37; gold up $924.2; TED Spread up +3bps 1.65%
SP500 open 1386, fall to 1369, bounce to close 1376. NDX 1913 gap down open 1901, drop to 1867, bounce to close 1882.
MON: we smell a suckers rally and sense a downdraft coming Thurs or Fri at perhaps NDX 1950.
It may be here sooner than we think as we are at a CRITICAL juncture.
SUN 04/11: Current rebound... has failed for the 3rd time at SP500 1385-1395. If the market does not break through and clear this level... winter will here very early.
02/01 SP500 1396.02 high is still intact. If the market doesn't swing through this number, it will be a 4th failure to pierce the magic line cutting the top from 08/16.
Look at the road down from 2000 to 2002, 3rd & 4th failures at resistance, are generally followed by further declines to newer lows.
Such behaviour would confirm the trend has changed and rather than a correction, we are in the beginning of a bear market.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
Bonds up 10 yr yield -1bps 3.71; $ down vs 1.5996€ & vs 102.98y; WTI +1.6% $119.37; gold up $924.2; TED Spread up +3bps 1.65%
SP500 open 1386, fall to 1369, bounce to close 1376. NDX 1913 gap down open 1901, drop to 1867, bounce to close 1882.
MON: we smell a suckers rally and sense a downdraft coming Thurs or Fri at perhaps NDX 1950.
It may be here sooner than we think as we are at a CRITICAL juncture.
SUN 04/11: Current rebound... has failed for the 3rd time at SP500 1385-1395. If the market does not break through and clear this level... winter will here very early.
02/01 SP500 1396.02 high is still intact. If the market doesn't swing through this number, it will be a 4th failure to pierce the magic line cutting the top from 08/16.
Look at the road down from 2000 to 2002, 3rd & 4th failures at resistance, are generally followed by further declines to newer lows.
Such behaviour would confirm the trend has changed and rather than a correction, we are in the beginning of a bear market.
Often wrong, but never in doubt, this is the Nattering Naybob and you're not.
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