Jubak: Don't Trust This Market Rally
MSN's Jim Jubak echoes our sentiments (its a suckers rally) on this markets inability to rally past the magic line from 08/16, in his latest "Don't Trust This Market Rally."
JJ also looks ahead at what could derail a second half economic recovery:
higher oil prices & stagflation, further deflation of real estate "values", more write downs of debt, a global slowdown and rising US unemployment.
This rally has failed to break through resistance at 1,400 on the S&P 500 several times this year: on Feb. 1, Feb. 26, April 7 and April 18.
The same thing happened Thursday, April 24, as the S&P hit 1,397, then pulled back to close at 1,389.
That's not what happens in a trend reversal from a bear-market decline to a bull-market upswing.
Until we see a move strong enough to take the market decisively above that level on the S&P 500 -- and through comparable levels on the other major indexes -- all we have is a rally in a longer bear-market trend.
JJ also looks ahead at what could derail a second half economic recovery:
higher oil prices & stagflation, further deflation of real estate "values", more write downs of debt, a global slowdown and rising US unemployment.
This rally has failed to break through resistance at 1,400 on the S&P 500 several times this year: on Feb. 1, Feb. 26, April 7 and April 18.
The same thing happened Thursday, April 24, as the S&P hit 1,397, then pulled back to close at 1,389.
That's not what happens in a trend reversal from a bear-market decline to a bull-market upswing.
Until we see a move strong enough to take the market decisively above that level on the S&P 500 -- and through comparable levels on the other major indexes -- all we have is a rally in a longer bear-market trend.
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