Market Soapbox 04/06/05
A gap to crap, split tape day: DJIA +27, SP500 +2.7, NDX -3. The indexes gapped up and broke through resistance at DJIA 10515, S&P 1186 and Nasdaq 2015, but failed at former support 10520, 1190 and 2020 and it was all downhill from there. Closing: DJIA 10486, SP 1184, Nasdaq 1999, NDX 1480.
The ducks were quacking:, The brown shoe's fed them by issuing multiple upgrades on chip stocks. Green: Semis +.23%, biotech +2.11%, airline, hardware, networking, financial, health care +1.12%, energy (oil +1.49%), materials, industrials, utility, banks. Red: telecom, homebuilding, retail, consumer staples, consumer discretionary and software. Siebel Systems, one of the most active on the Nasdaq, lost 10% after guiding Q1 EPS and revenues below analysts' forecasts.
Slicker: Major bank for Oil & Bond speculators as profit taking in crude oil futures continued, $55.95 -$0.09, continuing a pullback from Monday's all time high, - 3.0% for the week. Since 3/22 it seems to be a bond party, prices climbed +10 ticks , yields on the 10-year note have fallen to 4.43%, the lowest level since early March.
Greenspan's testimony on GSE's: Congress must clarify GSE insolvency rules; the need for a new GSE regulative authority to set minimum capital standards. Fannie and Freddie traded higher? The dollar gained vs Euro 1.2867 & vs Yen 108.65. Gold was down $428.70.
The Usual Suspects: It was a lineup straight out of the movie that kept the DJIA & SP500 above water. GSE Fannie Mae (FNM) +3.69 %, General Motors (GM) +3.17%, MBIA (MBI) +3.18%, GSE Freddie Mac (FRE) +3.14%, ExxonMobil (XOM) +1.03%, & Microsoft (MSFT) +.90%
Fearless: Apparently someone is not afraid of equities with questionable credit worthiness (GM's bond rating slashed yesterday by Moody's to almost junk), or scandal ridden/under government investigation (FNM, FRE, MBI), or in a sector pullback (XOM, MSFT). The DJIA is a price weighted index, and this kind of behavior does not bode well for the overall market.
Tomorrow's economic reports of note: Jobless claims, wholesale trade, chain store sales, consumer credit and M3 money supply. These reports should give an indication for March on consumer spending habits, wholesale inventory and retail sales.
Contra indicators of note: Suspect stocks keeping indexes afloat; Dollar and bond prices rising hand in hand; Tepid volume 1.7 Billion NYSE & 1.7 B Nasdaq; Advance decline volume line; DJIA 1.3 to 1, AMEX 4.38 to 1, Nasdaq 1 to 1.46; 52 week new high low ratio DJIA 3.59 to 1, AMEX 1 to 1, Nasdaq 1 to 1.23.
Final comments: It appears that the leaked ISM number may have allowed the bulk of the unwind to play out last Friday. The Boys from Bermuda have been able to concentrate on keeping support levels up this week, rather than evacuating positions. We are seeing short covering with 3 consecutive "up" days and 4 of the last 6 on low volume. This week has yet to see a distribution (down) day. Tick, Tock.
The ducks were quacking:, The brown shoe's fed them by issuing multiple upgrades on chip stocks. Green: Semis +.23%, biotech +2.11%, airline, hardware, networking, financial, health care +1.12%, energy (oil +1.49%), materials, industrials, utility, banks. Red: telecom, homebuilding, retail, consumer staples, consumer discretionary and software. Siebel Systems, one of the most active on the Nasdaq, lost 10% after guiding Q1 EPS and revenues below analysts' forecasts.
Slicker: Major bank for Oil & Bond speculators as profit taking in crude oil futures continued, $55.95 -$0.09, continuing a pullback from Monday's all time high, - 3.0% for the week. Since 3/22 it seems to be a bond party, prices climbed +10 ticks , yields on the 10-year note have fallen to 4.43%, the lowest level since early March.
Greenspan's testimony on GSE's: Congress must clarify GSE insolvency rules; the need for a new GSE regulative authority to set minimum capital standards. Fannie and Freddie traded higher? The dollar gained vs Euro 1.2867 & vs Yen 108.65. Gold was down $428.70.
The Usual Suspects: It was a lineup straight out of the movie that kept the DJIA & SP500 above water. GSE Fannie Mae (FNM) +3.69 %, General Motors (GM) +3.17%, MBIA (MBI) +3.18%, GSE Freddie Mac (FRE) +3.14%, ExxonMobil (XOM) +1.03%, & Microsoft (MSFT) +.90%
Fearless: Apparently someone is not afraid of equities with questionable credit worthiness (GM's bond rating slashed yesterday by Moody's to almost junk), or scandal ridden/under government investigation (FNM, FRE, MBI), or in a sector pullback (XOM, MSFT). The DJIA is a price weighted index, and this kind of behavior does not bode well for the overall market.
Tomorrow's economic reports of note: Jobless claims, wholesale trade, chain store sales, consumer credit and M3 money supply. These reports should give an indication for March on consumer spending habits, wholesale inventory and retail sales.
Contra indicators of note: Suspect stocks keeping indexes afloat; Dollar and bond prices rising hand in hand; Tepid volume 1.7 Billion NYSE & 1.7 B Nasdaq; Advance decline volume line; DJIA 1.3 to 1, AMEX 4.38 to 1, Nasdaq 1 to 1.46; 52 week new high low ratio DJIA 3.59 to 1, AMEX 1 to 1, Nasdaq 1 to 1.23.
Final comments: It appears that the leaked ISM number may have allowed the bulk of the unwind to play out last Friday. The Boys from Bermuda have been able to concentrate on keeping support levels up this week, rather than evacuating positions. We are seeing short covering with 3 consecutive "up" days and 4 of the last 6 on low volume. This week has yet to see a distribution (down) day. Tick, Tock.
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