Market Soapbox 04/08/05
Close:DJIA (-85) 10461; SP500 (-10) 1181;Nasdaq (-20) 1999; NDX (-14) 1485.
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2025; NDX 1510.
Support: DJIA 10370 ; SP500 1170 ; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1465.
Positive: None
Negative: All sectors
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.3650 108.26 ; vs Euro: -0.0074 1.2931.
Bonds: 10-yr note -00 yielding -.002 4.48%;
Gold: XAU -.33%; $429.00 +0.20. CRB: 304.32 -1.96
Oil: XOI -1.19%, Crude oil $53.32; -$0.79; -1.46%.
52 Week HiLo: DJIA 2 to 1; Nasdaq 1 to 2; Amex 1 to 1.
A/D Volume: DJIA 1 to 3, Nasdaq 1 to 3, Amex 1 to 6.
Volume: DJIA 1.63B, Nasdaq 1.48B
The Dow was coming off its first four-day advance in over 3 months. The S&P had not enjoyed four straight up days since mid February. Yesterday, the Nasdaq, on the heels of a 1.0% advance, enjoyed its first close above 2000 this month. Crude oil futures fell for the fifth straight day, -1.5%; down 7.2% on the week and over 8.5% below record highs. Treasuries initially went to the downside, lifting yields on the 10-year note back above the psychological 4.50% level, but finished unchanged on the day.
The market was left to its own devices, no economic reports or macro events occurred, oil & dollar fell and bonds were flat. None of the above could save the market from its distribution day for this week. On low volume, the internals looked terrible. The market hit a low into the close on increased volume in the last half hour. The reality that Q1 earnings are going to be squeezed, by higher borrowing costs and energy, to less than half (8.5%) of the (19.7%) pace in Q4 has set in.
Philly Fed President Santomero said that the Fed, which is currently acting in a more gradual fashion, may not be raising rates at a fast enough pace. Max pain and short covering for Fridays options expiration should help the market wave a pennant flag sideways to up for a few more days. This will be the markets last gasp for air before taking a nice plunge. After Friday the 15th the reckoning will come, after options expire, there's no reason to short cover. Monday the 18th, reports start in volume for 3 weeks and Tuesday the 19th, the PPI awaits.
Resistance: DJIA 10600; SP500 1200; Nasdaq 2025; NDX 1510.
Support: DJIA 10370 ; SP500 1170 ; Nasdaq 1975; NDX 1465.
Positive: None
Negative: All sectors
Dollar: vs Yen: -0.3650 108.26 ; vs Euro: -0.0074 1.2931.
Bonds: 10-yr note -00 yielding -.002 4.48%;
Gold: XAU -.33%; $429.00 +0.20. CRB: 304.32 -1.96
Oil: XOI -1.19%, Crude oil $53.32; -$0.79; -1.46%.
52 Week HiLo: DJIA 2 to 1; Nasdaq 1 to 2; Amex 1 to 1.
A/D Volume: DJIA 1 to 3, Nasdaq 1 to 3, Amex 1 to 6.
Volume: DJIA 1.63B, Nasdaq 1.48B
The Dow was coming off its first four-day advance in over 3 months. The S&P had not enjoyed four straight up days since mid February. Yesterday, the Nasdaq, on the heels of a 1.0% advance, enjoyed its first close above 2000 this month. Crude oil futures fell for the fifth straight day, -1.5%; down 7.2% on the week and over 8.5% below record highs. Treasuries initially went to the downside, lifting yields on the 10-year note back above the psychological 4.50% level, but finished unchanged on the day.
The market was left to its own devices, no economic reports or macro events occurred, oil & dollar fell and bonds were flat. None of the above could save the market from its distribution day for this week. On low volume, the internals looked terrible. The market hit a low into the close on increased volume in the last half hour. The reality that Q1 earnings are going to be squeezed, by higher borrowing costs and energy, to less than half (8.5%) of the (19.7%) pace in Q4 has set in.
Philly Fed President Santomero said that the Fed, which is currently acting in a more gradual fashion, may not be raising rates at a fast enough pace. Max pain and short covering for Fridays options expiration should help the market wave a pennant flag sideways to up for a few more days. This will be the markets last gasp for air before taking a nice plunge. After Friday the 15th the reckoning will come, after options expire, there's no reason to short cover. Monday the 18th, reports start in volume for 3 weeks and Tuesday the 19th, the PPI awaits.
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