Timing Is Everything? - Part 10
Following up on Timing Is Everything? - Part 9...
What we do know, there are $121B is Treasury auctions Mon; $123B Tues; and $19B Wen; totaling $263B which at 3.5X tender avg means $920B less in available liquidity from major dealers over those three days. Food for thought. 04 Nov 2018, 07:06 AM
As the trading day progressed...
"Masterful trading range enshrined by da Boyz today. Total no-man's land. Nothing to be determined until at least tomorrow."
Indeed, much like Nas futures 6915, todays 6925 stick save was masterful. Fed not raising till Dec.; $133B x 3.5 out of action tomorrow and mid term election results are this... 05 Nov 2018, 04:44 PM
Post mortem commentary.... LKJ4 - As we saw today, $121B auction didn't spook the market. "I guess you had to be there." - didnt understand your response, but please dont bother explaining it, it doesn't matter. Thanks! 05 Nov 2018, 07:27 PM
We Nattered... Reiterating... breaking the 10/11 low of 6907 on force and closing below would not be a sign of strength. 06 Nov 2018, 08:58 AM
The Nattering One muses... As for this weeks FOMC meeting, they won't raise until December.
As for the November 6 mid term election, Democrats should gain control of the House, but Republicans will maintain the Senate. Markets might applaud this state of gridlock.
Let's examine the NAS 100 and Monday's Treasury auction. In the bigger picture, 11/05/18 market action was deceiving. Under the hood, RUT and NAS suffered.
Around 7AM EST NAS 100 Futures were at 6998, at 10AM EST they had dropped 1.9% or 133 pts to 6865, on higher volume with the VIX jumping.
Note to self: Incidental, 106 of those 133 points occurred in the first 30 minutes of trading.
Tenders at the Treasury auction due by 11:30AM and 1:30PM EST were 3yr $102B; 3 month $138B and 6 month $132B, totaling $372B in bail posted or "bond".
Actual payment is debited from the winners bank accounts on the date of issue, which is usually within 1 to 5 days after auction.
Depending on ones point of view, a 2% drop at market open might not qualify as no mans land, or something that didn't spook the market.
At the end of the day, concomitant and coincident to the Treasury auction, a nice +/- 100 pt ride down at $20 per point, per contract in the NAS 100 Futures.
It was, what it was. As somebody had to get ready to "post" $372B in tender "bond", $42T in market cap took a $828B haircut in a little over 30 minutes.
Call it what you like, it really doesn't matter to me, anyway the wind blows....
More to come in Know Your Limitations? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended reading:
Ruckus Premium? (Quarter End)
Dark Side Of The Moon?
Dark Side of The Moon? Part 2
Timing Is Everything?
Timing Is Everything? - Part 2
Timing Is Everything? - Part 3
Timing Is Everything? - Part 4
Timing Is Everything? - Part 5
Timing Is Everything? - Part 6
Timing Is Everything? - Part 7
Timing Is Everything? - Part 8
Timing Is Everything? - Part 9
From Salmo Trutta:
The Dark Side Of The Moon: The Seasonal Clock
The Darker Side Of The Moon
LKJ4 - Here is another view on this Monday [Treasury] auction (not mine - I am not knowledgeable to have views on it): "... This is just a small slice of the liquidity universe that is percolating in the system. That is why single data points like this have a hit and miss (mostly miss) correlation with risk asset prices..." I wanted to read your response to this view. Rada vstretit sootechestvenika :) 02 Nov 2018, 03:09 PMWe Nattered... Thank you for the kind words comrade. The comment is not sourced, and taken out of context. As such the brush strokes are broad and scope/scale ambiguous. Thus, I have no point of reference and shall leave it where it is. Never chase the target.
What we do know, there are $121B is Treasury auctions Mon; $123B Tues; and $19B Wen; totaling $263B which at 3.5X tender avg means $920B less in available liquidity from major dealers over those three days. Food for thought. 04 Nov 2018, 07:06 AM
LKJ4 - "The comment is not sourced, and taken out of context." Nope, it was a direct answer to the question about Monday's auction of 121B. The answer is very clear. I guess it will be useful for us to keep record of market behavior during days when high amounts are auctioned. 05 Nov 2018, 02:09 AMWe Nattered.. See here, [link to upcoming Treasury auctions and results] bookmark and pay heed... 04 Nov 2018, 07:16 AM and... [in response to the out of context comment] I guess you had to be there. 05 Nov 2018, 02:18 PM
As the trading day progressed...
B for Bob - Masterful trading range enshrined by da Boyz today. Total no-man's land. Nothing to be determined until at least tomorrow. 05 Nov 2018, 01:27 PMWe Nattered... Small caps down, Nas got porked again, futures need to close below magic stick save line at 6915, PPT working overtime. 05 Nov 2018, 02:12 PM
"Masterful trading range enshrined by da Boyz today. Total no-man's land. Nothing to be determined until at least tomorrow."
Indeed, much like Nas futures 6915, todays 6925 stick save was masterful. Fed not raising till Dec.; $133B x 3.5 out of action tomorrow and mid term election results are this... 05 Nov 2018, 04:44 PM
Post mortem commentary.... LKJ4 - As we saw today, $121B auction didn't spook the market. "I guess you had to be there." - didnt understand your response, but please dont bother explaining it, it doesn't matter. Thanks! 05 Nov 2018, 07:27 PM
We Nattered... Reiterating... breaking the 10/11 low of 6907 on force and closing below would not be a sign of strength. 06 Nov 2018, 08:58 AM
The Nattering One muses... As for this weeks FOMC meeting, they won't raise until December.
As for the November 6 mid term election, Democrats should gain control of the House, but Republicans will maintain the Senate. Markets might applaud this state of gridlock.
Let's examine the NAS 100 and Monday's Treasury auction. In the bigger picture, 11/05/18 market action was deceiving. Under the hood, RUT and NAS suffered.
Around 7AM EST NAS 100 Futures were at 6998, at 10AM EST they had dropped 1.9% or 133 pts to 6865, on higher volume with the VIX jumping.
Note to self: Incidental, 106 of those 133 points occurred in the first 30 minutes of trading.
Tenders at the Treasury auction due by 11:30AM and 1:30PM EST were 3yr $102B; 3 month $138B and 6 month $132B, totaling $372B in bail posted or "bond".
Actual payment is debited from the winners bank accounts on the date of issue, which is usually within 1 to 5 days after auction.
Depending on ones point of view, a 2% drop at market open might not qualify as no mans land, or something that didn't spook the market.
At the end of the day, concomitant and coincident to the Treasury auction, a nice +/- 100 pt ride down at $20 per point, per contract in the NAS 100 Futures.
It was, what it was. As somebody had to get ready to "post" $372B in tender "bond", $42T in market cap took a $828B haircut in a little over 30 minutes.
Call it what you like, it really doesn't matter to me, anyway the wind blows....
More to come in Know Your Limitations? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended reading:
Ruckus Premium? (Quarter End)
Dark Side Of The Moon?
Dark Side of The Moon? Part 2
Timing Is Everything?
Timing Is Everything? - Part 2
Timing Is Everything? - Part 3
Timing Is Everything? - Part 4
Timing Is Everything? - Part 5
Timing Is Everything? - Part 6
Timing Is Everything? - Part 7
Timing Is Everything? - Part 8
Timing Is Everything? - Part 9
From Salmo Trutta:
The Dark Side Of The Moon: The Seasonal Clock
The Darker Side Of The Moon
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