Lunar New Year For Old Blind Men?
Following up on Let Me Warn You? Last year, Asian Lunar New Year was celebrated on February 16th, 2018.
Above, what transpired with NDX, Oil (CL, red) and US dollar futures (DX, purple). Flash forward to late December...
Thursday 01/31 ES .618034 retrace was crossed at 2713. At this point a 397 point bounce in 29 trading days from 2316 on 12/26. Concomitant to equities dropping and said Santa rally....
WTI 76.90 down to 42.36 = -34.54 decline; then a 13.01 bounce to 55.37 = +13.01
13.01 / 34.54 = .376 or almost .381966 or [1 - .618034].
As of 02/04 bounce to 55.74 or 13.38 / 34.54 = .387.
To repeat...
Coming full circle, this year February 5th, 2019 marks the year of the Pig. Many Asian markets including Hong Kong and China are closed Monday and Tuesday.
In January the PBoC announced RRR cuts as a liquidity boost for this years holiday. The efficacy of said reverse repo cuts is debatable with unintended consequences, such as hoarding and borrowing unsecured (spiking Hibor) rather than in repo markets, actually exacerbating liquidity conditions.
Word to the wise, if WTI heads south, it may take stocks with it? Watch $, Yen and Oil closely. Now we see things getting interesting, said the blind man [or men].
Phineus of Thrace (you can stop laughing now Michel de Nostredame aka Salmo Trutta.)
More to come in Shutdown Impacts Inflection? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended reading:
Timing Is Everything?
Know Your Limitations?
Parting The Red Sea?
A Little Shop Of Horrors?
Where's Your Messiah?
Rapture?
Ro-BUST?
Beware The Ides Of Winter?
Meddling With Powers?
The Perfect Storm?
Begin The Benign?
A Case of Tape-r Worm?
Beware The Ides of Winter Early?
A Disturbing Lack of Faith?
Canary In A Coal Mine?
FreeTrade Warning?
Global Economy Down?
Wear Sunscreen?
Trust Me On The Sunscreen?
Let Me Warn You?
Above, what transpired with NDX, Oil (CL, red) and US dollar futures (DX, purple). Flash forward to late December...
+6% on NDX, oil jumping almost +10%, Santa's late? Nikkei nice +3.88%, all of this on -2% JMY carry trade with the 10yr +49 bps funding. Watch the follow through and its volume... This sleigh ride with Ol Nick may be good until [Jan] 7th-14th and then TBD. - 27 Dec 2018, 06:07 AM - The Nattering Naybob
"Better yet, try .618 of the total 630, for [ES] 2710." 28 Dec 2018 and Beware The Ides Of Winter Early? - The Nattering Naybob
Thursday 01/31 ES .618034 retrace was crossed at 2713. At this point a 397 point bounce in 29 trading days from 2316 on 12/26. Concomitant to equities dropping and said Santa rally....
Rates, oil, and DXY all point to even lower future equity prices. - 27 Dec 2018, 11:21 AM - Salmo Trutta
Oil peaked at the same time stocks did (Oct 3 for both oil and stocks).27 Dec 2018, 11:53 AM - Salmo Trutta
Oil peaks in February. Economy looks stronger. Stocks (up now c. 770 on DJIA) might not look back for awhile.04 Jan 2019, 01:39 PM - Salmo Trutta
I wouldn't trade against the seasonal's even if oil remains strong.... One of the best trades of 2019 might be selling oil in February with a June bottom.18 Jan 2019, 11:53 AM - Salmo TruttaOn the EXACT same dates as equities....
WTI 76.90 down to 42.36 = -34.54 decline; then a 13.01 bounce to 55.37 = +13.01
13.01 / 34.54 = .376 or almost .381966 or [1 - .618034].
As of 02/04 bounce to 55.74 or 13.38 / 34.54 = .387.
To repeat...
"Better yet, try .618 of the total 630, for [ES] 2710."To review, concomitant with equities [ES] hitting .618034 retrace, WTI hit .381966 retrace, wonder how that works? A sad devotion to an ancient religion might explain? (See - A Disturbing Lack of Faith?)
Coming full circle, this year February 5th, 2019 marks the year of the Pig. Many Asian markets including Hong Kong and China are closed Monday and Tuesday.
In January the PBoC announced RRR cuts as a liquidity boost for this years holiday. The efficacy of said reverse repo cuts is debatable with unintended consequences, such as hoarding and borrowing unsecured (spiking Hibor) rather than in repo markets, actually exacerbating liquidity conditions.
Word to the wise, if WTI heads south, it may take stocks with it? Watch $, Yen and Oil closely. Now we see things getting interesting, said the blind man [or men].
Phineus of Thrace (you can stop laughing now Michel de Nostredame aka Salmo Trutta.)
More to come in Shutdown Impacts Inflection? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended reading:
Timing Is Everything?
Know Your Limitations?
Parting The Red Sea?
A Little Shop Of Horrors?
Where's Your Messiah?
Rapture?
Ro-BUST?
Beware The Ides Of Winter?
Meddling With Powers?
The Perfect Storm?
Begin The Benign?
A Case of Tape-r Worm?
Beware The Ides of Winter Early?
A Disturbing Lack of Faith?
Canary In A Coal Mine?
FreeTrade Warning?
Global Economy Down?
Wear Sunscreen?
Trust Me On The Sunscreen?
Let Me Warn You?
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