COVID19: Parabellum?
Picking up where The Sound Of Silence? left off... We've Nattered about crowded environments, transmission, seasonal flu numbers, mortality rates, imagined vs real, the backdraft of draconian measures, predicted "superspreader" events, pigs in a poke, monetary policy and preexisting conditions for many reasons. Unlike others, this was not to infer that COVID19 is much ado about nothing...
Parabellum is commonly used to refer to a 9mm firearms cartridge, and to refer to the first development of a full metal jacket cartridge displaying a PARABOLIC shape of the nose. From latin: Si vis pacem, para bellum, meaning "If you want peace, you should prepare for war". Hence our apropos title, we think...
In this week's sociable offering's (there are two) submitted for your acceptance, you'll find renewed greatness, predictive models, meltdowns, cancellation lateness... apropos music, freezes, bigger boats, sharks, bazookas, and heated hopes... holy water, wafers, slippers, service providers, witches, and double dippers... a look at the boot, serial killers, houses of worship and ill repute. Moving West...
Another case of denial not being a river? 3200 seeds over 114 days, and those 20K have been walking around undiagnosed since March 7th, pre testing and pre national emergency. Ceteris Paribus, in short order 160K reported, with another 250K as yet, is neither a parabolic stretch nor vivid imagination. Spring break, training, MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAA and cruises were only just cancelled, most not by decree. Until recently, many schools K-12 were still in session, bars, restaurants, convenience marts and fast food were all up and operating along with airlines? You must be joking laughed the virus.
Along those lines and delayed not well thought out knee jerk reactions, better keep decent rest stop food available along the trucking corridors. Anybody home McFly? Take care of the truckers and think food chain supply... it's all there, black and white, clear as crystal, they don't roll, you get NOTHING at the market, riots, looting and bedlam follow, you lose, Good Day Sir. Moving West...
Bazooka? More like bringing a knife or cap gun to a gun fight, as the mother of all meltdowns continues unabated. So far fastest and largest: correction -10, bear territory -20, and to -30%.
Pity Parade? Banks, hedge funds, MMF's, hotels, airlines, defense contractors acting as airline manufacturers, even cruise lines (which are offshored to pay zero taxes) are all lining up at the bailout bin. As a Naybob of IT dubbed it... The BBBB-BBBB? No not the rating for their debt, the Bilious Bastard Buy Back - Bonus Bailout Billions Bunch.
Parabolic? and if you want peace, prepare for war? A lack of preparation (due to budget cuts) and belated response replete with fiscal stimulus (bankster, Wall Street and corp welfare), cannot stop a virus from going parabolic. Contrary to the facts claims of lock down, containment, nothing to worry about, the flu is worse, yet just now declared a National Emergency? Sounds like an ill prepared, knee jerk panic, and anything but a "finest moment". Recent MSM and blogosphere invocation and abuse of that phrase has Churchill rolling over in his grave.
BTW, it is a global lack of competent leadership which can be held culpable for the globally wanton for profit irresponsibility gone viral of late. In the meantime, there just isn't enough fiscal stimulus and corporate welfare to go around the world? COVID19 is a hungry great white, who has gained an appetite, and we think the central banks are going to need one of these...
More to come in COVID19: Social Disease? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
COVID19: Secondary Infection?
COVID19: Bat Out Of Hell?
COVID19: Pig In A Poke?
COVID19: Great Gig In The Sky?
COVID19: The Sound Of Silence?
Fed Announces New Measures
Parabellum is commonly used to refer to a 9mm firearms cartridge, and to refer to the first development of a full metal jacket cartridge displaying a PARABOLIC shape of the nose. From latin: Si vis pacem, para bellum, meaning "If you want peace, you should prepare for war". Hence our apropos title, we think...
In this week's sociable offering's (there are two) submitted for your acceptance, you'll find renewed greatness, predictive models, meltdowns, cancellation lateness... apropos music, freezes, bigger boats, sharks, bazookas, and heated hopes... holy water, wafers, slippers, service providers, witches, and double dippers... a look at the boot, serial killers, houses of worship and ill repute. Moving West...
Anyone of aforethought with public health and safety in mind, would have cancelled the aforementioned global events no later than 02/14 when infections in mainland China jumped 50% in one day... we might just find out how virulent this virus IS or IS NOT by March 11 to 21st?- Same Bat Channel?Above as predicted, because Fat Tuesday was not cancelled and all the global sporting events and celebrations held prior and since, due to profit motive. Now include a belated Spring Break beaches shutdown, somebody didn't see this coming? The airline, hotel bookings, bar and restaurant tabs already pocketed were worth millions right? Woefully tardy school children (pun intended) holding E-suite and government seats come to mind.
Even with a conservative reduced flu like R0 at 1.3, modeling estimates indicate 300K infected by late March to early April. - Bat Out Of Hell?As predicted above March 4th, over the weekend right on the money. With 955 genomes mapped and diagnosed cases at 360K, expect 400K in a day or so, parabolic thereafter. Unchecked and doubling every 10 days, we could see 20M by the end of May, and 4B by the end of July - mid August. Speaking of great, big and huge, 1st time unemployment benefits jumped last week, increasing by 70K to 281K the 4th biggest weekly increase on record going back to 1967. And now this...
Asleep At The Wheel or MAGA? As predicted above on Twitter March 7th (embedded March 10th in Pig In A Poke?). With ex China cases spiking, last week the US vaulted into the top 10 with 20K. Over the weekend the US vaulted over S.Korea, France, Germany and Iran with 40K to temporarily trail only China and Italy. More on those COVID19 case rankings later, meanwhile more greatness?Nov-Jan 23 Hubei→US air outbound 16K. Carrier odds 5-20% = 800-3200 seeds over 114 days. Conservative est. 6-20K cases. Predicted 02/26 post global super spreader Fat Tuesday spike... MLB Spring Training + March Madness + Spring Break = KABOOM!! YMMV. https://t.co/V8zafIkVZS— The Nattering Naybob (@NaybobNattering) March 7, 2020
Another case of denial not being a river? 3200 seeds over 114 days, and those 20K have been walking around undiagnosed since March 7th, pre testing and pre national emergency. Ceteris Paribus, in short order 160K reported, with another 250K as yet, is neither a parabolic stretch nor vivid imagination. Spring break, training, MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAA and cruises were only just cancelled, most not by decree. Until recently, many schools K-12 were still in session, bars, restaurants, convenience marts and fast food were all up and operating along with airlines? You must be joking laughed the virus.
Along those lines and delayed not well thought out knee jerk reactions, better keep decent rest stop food available along the trucking corridors. Anybody home McFly? Take care of the truckers and think food chain supply... it's all there, black and white, clear as crystal, they don't roll, you get NOTHING at the market, riots, looting and bedlam follow, you lose, Good Day Sir. Moving West...
Bazooka? More like bringing a knife or cap gun to a gun fight, as the mother of all meltdowns continues unabated. So far fastest and largest: correction -10, bear territory -20, and to -30%.
let's lower rates which raise refi CPR's and duration risk. Now the MBS that few want to hold in this ruckus might become a really hot potato? Simply brilliant. Great Gig In The Sky?Above, our repo ruckus series was and still is, the ONLY place in the MSM or blogosphere where the underlying problem was diagnosed and Chronicled. With MBS, CMBS and FHLB next? in mind, and now this...
The market for commercial real estate mortgage loans in the United States stands on the brink of collapse. - Tom BarrackAside from getting us where we are today, fiscal stimulus has done wonders, first repo, then commercial paper, money market funds, state muni MMF's, ABS, corporate bonds and ETF's all frozen over solid with liquidity drained. FFR, IOER and repo cut to zero, funds closing, property funds, banks, hedges and businesses teetering on insolvency. Now necessitating (excepting equities and HY) a "pseudo" nationalization of the banksters financial system.
Pity Parade? Banks, hedge funds, MMF's, hotels, airlines, defense contractors acting as airline manufacturers, even cruise lines (which are offshored to pay zero taxes) are all lining up at the bailout bin. As a Naybob of IT dubbed it... The BBBB-BBBB? No not the rating for their debt, the Bilious Bastard Buy Back - Bonus Bailout Billions Bunch.
Spot on. Rather than investing in expansion, the companies whose E-suites spent all their money on stock buybacks to line their own pockets, now come hat in hand for taxpayer money? Was not the GFC bailout enough? Let these double and triple dipping zombies who have plagued us since, be put out of our misery once and for all. Coming full circle...Explain to me why we should spent taxpayer money to bailout companies (airlines) who spent their cash buying their own stock so the CEO gets optionality, instead of having a crisis buffer.— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 22, 2020
We should bail out individuals based on needs, not corporations.#Moralhazard
Parabolic? and if you want peace, prepare for war? A lack of preparation (due to budget cuts) and belated response replete with fiscal stimulus (bankster, Wall Street and corp welfare), cannot stop a virus from going parabolic. Contrary to the facts claims of lock down, containment, nothing to worry about, the flu is worse, yet just now declared a National Emergency? Sounds like an ill prepared, knee jerk panic, and anything but a "finest moment". Recent MSM and blogosphere invocation and abuse of that phrase has Churchill rolling over in his grave.
BTW, it is a global lack of competent leadership which can be held culpable for the globally wanton for profit irresponsibility gone viral of late. In the meantime, there just isn't enough fiscal stimulus and corporate welfare to go around the world? COVID19 is a hungry great white, who has gained an appetite, and we think the central banks are going to need one of these...
More to come in COVID19: Social Disease? Stay tuned, no flippin.
Recommended Reading:
2019 nCOV - Pleased To Meet You?
COVID19: Same Bat Time?
COVID19: Same Bat Channel?
COVID19: Secondary Infection?
COVID19: Bat Out Of Hell?
COVID19: Pig In A Poke?
COVID19: Great Gig In The Sky?
COVID19: The Sound Of Silence?
Fed Announces New Measures
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