Initial Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed
Summary: Initial claims unemployment and the housing spillover worsen as the service sector starts to collapse.
Leading indicators barely breaks a widespread 6 month decline, still indicating continued economic weakness.
Philly Fed confirming with continued weakness; deteriorating demand; widespread cost pressures; with capex being postponed.
Initial Claims 04/12 +17K at 372K vs prior 355K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down 2K. 4 week MA -750 at 376K;
Continuing unemployment +26K at 2.984M; 4 week MA +29,75K at 2.936M.
See states with increase >1K for the housing spillover and service industry collapse.
Leading Indicators Mar +0.1% vs prior -0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: 1st increase after a widespead 6 month decline.
Money supply, supplier deliveries and the interest rate spread made large positive contributions to the index this month,
offsetting the large negative contributions from initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits and stock prices.
The current behavior of the composite indexes suggests economic weakness is likely to continue in the near term.
Philadelphia Fed Apr -24.9 vs prior -17.4 Full Report
Inside the number: Declining Employment -11.1 vs -4.7, a 3rd straight negative reading; Average workweek -12.3 vs -10; a 4th straight negative reading.
Waning demand, New Orders -18.8 vs -9.3; Shipments -8 vs -6.3; backlog vanishing, Unfilled orders -16.8 vs -18.7; no reorders, Inventories -26.2 vs -13.5
Cost pressures, Prices paid 51.6 vs 54.4; being passed up the distribution chain, Prices received 30.9 vs 21.2
Two special questions showed that so far this year, current demand is less than expected and capital spending plans have been decreased or postponed.
Leading indicators barely breaks a widespread 6 month decline, still indicating continued economic weakness.
Philly Fed confirming with continued weakness; deteriorating demand; widespread cost pressures; with capex being postponed.
Initial Claims 04/12 +17K at 372K vs prior 355K Full Report
Inside the number: prior revised down 2K. 4 week MA -750 at 376K;
Continuing unemployment +26K at 2.984M; 4 week MA +29,75K at 2.936M.
See states with increase >1K for the housing spillover and service industry collapse.
Leading Indicators Mar +0.1% vs prior -0.3% Full Report
Inside the number: 1st increase after a widespead 6 month decline.
Money supply, supplier deliveries and the interest rate spread made large positive contributions to the index this month,
offsetting the large negative contributions from initial claims for unemployment insurance, building permits and stock prices.
The current behavior of the composite indexes suggests economic weakness is likely to continue in the near term.
Philadelphia Fed Apr -24.9 vs prior -17.4 Full Report
Inside the number: Declining Employment -11.1 vs -4.7, a 3rd straight negative reading; Average workweek -12.3 vs -10; a 4th straight negative reading.
Waning demand, New Orders -18.8 vs -9.3; Shipments -8 vs -6.3; backlog vanishing, Unfilled orders -16.8 vs -18.7; no reorders, Inventories -26.2 vs -13.5
Cost pressures, Prices paid 51.6 vs 54.4; being passed up the distribution chain, Prices received 30.9 vs 21.2
Two special questions showed that so far this year, current demand is less than expected and capital spending plans have been decreased or postponed.
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