Wells Fargo: Another Glossy Lip Job

Wells Fargo #5 bank;#2 mortgage lender; "Stumpfed" its investors again. (CEO, John Stumpf)

Much like last quarter, by smearing lipstick on the pig...

the book cookers tried to hide alot of ugly performance details in a large preliminary report.

The effort included $12 billion in segregated loans that produced suspiciously little loss.

Don't be surprised if like last quarter, Wells actual 10Q differs to the downside. Our preliminary findings follow...

Revenue +12%; EPS -9%; Net income -11%; $2 billion vs $2.24 billion; community banking -5%; wholesale banking -25%; Wells Fargo financial -13%

set aside $2 billion for bad loans; net charge offs $1.5 billion vs Q4 $1.2 billion vs Q107 $715 million (+184%); charge offs for consumer loans +26% $1.21 billion.

Allowance for loan losses $5.8 billion, up 9% from $5.3 billion at year-end 2007 and up +57% Yoy from $3.7 billion.

Community banking provision for credit loss (+329%) $1.3 billion vs $306 million.

Backing out the one time $334 million gain on the Visa IPO; community banking net income fell 27% to $1.1 billion.

Total nonperforming foreclosed assets +16% to $4.5 billion vs $3.87 billion at year end.

Total nonaccrual loans +88% at $3.2 billion vs $1.7 billion. Adding the two classes yields 2% of total loans.

Wells suffered a $1.8 billion reduction in the value of mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) due to a decline in mortgage rates during the quarter,

offset by a $1.9 billion gain on the financial instruments hedging the MSRs. The MSR's are down -16% or $2.8 billion Yoy.

Unrealized net losses on securities available for sale $598 million vs unrealized net gains of $680 million at year end. A $1.3 billion unrealized swing.

Wells segregated approximately $12 billion of home equity loans into a liquidating portfolio.

The liquidating portfolio miraculously produced ONLY $163 million in net charge-offs in Q108,

for an annualized quarterly loss rate of 5.58%, 78 basis points higher than the December 2007 annualized loss rate.

90 days or more delinquent Yoy: Unguaranteed loans +50% $1.6 billion vs $1.1 billion.

Guaranteed loans +44% $6.92 billion vs $4.81 billion. Yoy Private collateralized mortgage obligations +525% $21 billion vs $4 billion

Advances from GNMA & FHA on those delinquent loans: $5.29 billion vs $3.68 billion.

Yoy: Securities available for sale +80% $82 billion vs $45 billion. Short term borrowings +410% $54 billion vs $13 billion.

Mike Loughlin, chief credit officer:

"Residential real estate values continued to decline in the quarter and the number of markets adversely impacted continued to increase."

Wells News Release

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