Mar CPI, Housing Starts & Permits, Industrial Production
Summary: Headline, CPI up only 0.3% per estimate; under the sheets, screaming double digit stagflation Yoy and accelerating the last six months across the board.
Headline, housing starts decline doubles estimates, under the sheets, the creator of 80% of all jobs since 2000 collapses out West with a 57% decline YTD in permits from last year.
Headline industrial production reverses trend +0.3%; under the sheets, every meaningful durable activity has declined 3 to 4 months consecutive and Yoy.
CPI Mar +0.3% vs prior 0.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Mar +0.2% vs prior 0.0%; non seasonally adjusted CPI +0.9%.
Table 4 CPI-W % Yoy change from Mar 2007:
Energy +17.6%; Non durables less food, bev & apparel +15.2%; Non durables less food & bev +11.1%; Personal computers -11.7%.
Table 5: % change, the last 6 months; energy +26.4%; hospital +8.2%; public transportation +11.8%; bakery products (bread) +11.1%;
non durables +11.6%; less food +18.3%; less food & apparel +21.5%; less food, bev & apparel +23.4%
We repeat our advice: do not go out, eat or drink; stay at home & surf the web. All is fine, don't worry inflation is tame.
We repeat our mantra: ANYONE claiming that inflation or stagflation is under double digits is either a paid liar, a fool or both.
Housing Starts Mar -11.9% at 947K vs 1.065M Full Report
Inside the number: Table 3: Starts hit a 17 year low; Ytd -30.2%; Yoy -36.5%.
SFR starts -5.7%; Ytd -39%; Yoy -43.6%; West -11.8%; Ytd; -45.7%; Yoy -48.3%
More importantly the gauge of future growth, Table 1 Building Permits -5.8% at 927K vs prior 984K; Ytd -37.3%; Yoy -40.9%; West -20%; Ytd -47.2%; Yoy -52.8%.
SFR permits -6.2%; Ytd -43.9%; Yoy -46.4%; West Ytd -55.4%; Yoy -56.8%
Industrial Production Mar +0.3% vs prior -0.7% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Mar 80.5% vs prior 80.3%. Table 1: Yoy wood products -11.5%; Motor vehicles & parts -9.1%; furniture -4.7%; textiles -8.8%
And with $4 gasoline... Table 1: Oil & Gas Well Drilling -0.9%, aren't those seven sisters lookin real hard for new sources?
Consumer goods durable Jan -1.3%; Feb -1.1%; Mar -2.1%; Yoy -3.9%
Automotive Jan -1.9%; Feb -1.2%; Mar -4.8%; Yoy -5.3%
Construction Jan -0.6%; Feb -1.3%; Mar -0.2%; Yoy -3.5%
Materials Durable Consumer Parts Dec -2.3%; Jan -0.7%; Feb -0.9%; Mar -3.8%; Yoy -8.7%
Materials Nondurable Textile Dec 0%; Jan -2.7%; Feb -0.4%; Mar -0.8%; Yoy -11.3%
Table 2: Yoy Manufacturing ex auto -0.2%; durable -0.3%
Headline, housing starts decline doubles estimates, under the sheets, the creator of 80% of all jobs since 2000 collapses out West with a 57% decline YTD in permits from last year.
Headline industrial production reverses trend +0.3%; under the sheets, every meaningful durable activity has declined 3 to 4 months consecutive and Yoy.
CPI Mar +0.3% vs prior 0.0% Full Report
Inside the number: Core CPI Mar +0.2% vs prior 0.0%; non seasonally adjusted CPI +0.9%.
Table 4 CPI-W % Yoy change from Mar 2007:
Energy +17.6%; Non durables less food, bev & apparel +15.2%; Non durables less food & bev +11.1%; Personal computers -11.7%.
Table 5: % change, the last 6 months; energy +26.4%; hospital +8.2%; public transportation +11.8%; bakery products (bread) +11.1%;
non durables +11.6%; less food +18.3%; less food & apparel +21.5%; less food, bev & apparel +23.4%
We repeat our advice: do not go out, eat or drink; stay at home & surf the web. All is fine, don't worry inflation is tame.
We repeat our mantra: ANYONE claiming that inflation or stagflation is under double digits is either a paid liar, a fool or both.
Housing Starts Mar -11.9% at 947K vs 1.065M Full Report
Inside the number: Table 3: Starts hit a 17 year low; Ytd -30.2%; Yoy -36.5%.
SFR starts -5.7%; Ytd -39%; Yoy -43.6%; West -11.8%; Ytd; -45.7%; Yoy -48.3%
More importantly the gauge of future growth, Table 1 Building Permits -5.8% at 927K vs prior 984K; Ytd -37.3%; Yoy -40.9%; West -20%; Ytd -47.2%; Yoy -52.8%.
SFR permits -6.2%; Ytd -43.9%; Yoy -46.4%; West Ytd -55.4%; Yoy -56.8%
Industrial Production Mar +0.3% vs prior -0.7% Full Report
Inside the number: Capacity Utilization Mar 80.5% vs prior 80.3%. Table 1: Yoy wood products -11.5%; Motor vehicles & parts -9.1%; furniture -4.7%; textiles -8.8%
And with $4 gasoline... Table 1: Oil & Gas Well Drilling -0.9%, aren't those seven sisters lookin real hard for new sources?
Consumer goods durable Jan -1.3%; Feb -1.1%; Mar -2.1%; Yoy -3.9%
Automotive Jan -1.9%; Feb -1.2%; Mar -4.8%; Yoy -5.3%
Construction Jan -0.6%; Feb -1.3%; Mar -0.2%; Yoy -3.5%
Materials Durable Consumer Parts Dec -2.3%; Jan -0.7%; Feb -0.9%; Mar -3.8%; Yoy -8.7%
Materials Nondurable Textile Dec 0%; Jan -2.7%; Feb -0.4%; Mar -0.8%; Yoy -11.3%
Table 2: Yoy Manufacturing ex auto -0.2%; durable -0.3%
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